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Voter List Maintenance

Voter List Maintenance. A Cost Benefit Analysis Prepared for Brian Bell, Elections Data Manager Government Accountability Board. By: Dorothy Cheng, Brett Halverson, John Magnino , Daniel Marlin, Matthew Mayeshiba , Mai Choua Thao. Voter List Maintenance (VLM) – An Overview. What is it?

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Voter List Maintenance

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  1. Voter List Maintenance A Cost Benefit Analysis Prepared for Brian Bell, Elections Data Manager Government Accountability Board By: Dorothy Cheng, Brett Halverson, • John Magnino, Daniel Marlin, Matthew Mayeshiba, Mai ChouaThao

  2. Voter List Maintenance (VLM) – An Overview • What is it? • Process of suspending inaccurate or inactive voter registrations • Why do it? • Maintaining accurate voter records • Administrative cost savings • In Wisconsin, VLM is mandated by state statute

  3. VLM in Practice

  4. Policy Alternatives • 1. Current Policy (GAB Mass Mailing) • 2. GAB Use of the Postal Service’s National Change of Address (NCOA) Database • 3. Municipal Use of Mass Mailing • 4. Municipal Use of USPS NCOA Database

  5. Costs of Municipal-Level Alternatives • Cost of postage • 17% increase • Cost of printing • 336% increase • Cost of NCOA • $53,000 across 1,047 municipalities

  6. Policy Alternatives • 1. Current Policy (GAB Mass Mailing) • 2. GAB Use of the Postal Service’s National Change of Address (NCOA) Database • 3. Municipal Use of Mass Mailing • 4. Municipal Use of USPS NCOA Database • 3. GAB Use of Mass Mailing and USPS NCOA Database (Hybrid Option)

  7. Current Policy Spring 2017 2016 2014 GAB sends “Notice of Suspension” postcard to address on file No vote cast in election No vote cast in election

  8. NCOA Alternative Within 6 months 2014 GAB sends “Notice of Suspension” postcard to address on file Voter flagged by NCOA Voter moves Voter stays on voter rolls indefinitely Voter not flagged by NCOA Voter does not move

  9. Hybrid Option Within 6 months 2014 GAB sends “Notice of Suspension” postcard to address on file Voter flagged by NCOA Voter moves 2017 2014 through 2016 GAB sends “Notice of Suspension” postcard to address on file No vote cast in two consecutive election cycles Voter not flagged by NCOA Voter does not move

  10. Mailing Process (All Alternatives) Voter sends postcard back to continue registration Municipal Clerk processes continuation Postcards Sent by GAB Postcard returned as undeliverable Municipal Clerk inactivates voter registration Postcard is delivered, but not returned After 30 days, GAB inactivates voter registration

  11. VLM in Practice

  12. Costs of VLM • NCOA Startup Costs ($14,000) • NCOA Contract ($5,750) • Printing and Mailing One Postcard ($0.30) • Staff Costs from Processing One Postcard • Continuation ($0.96) • Undeliverable ($1.09) • Unreturned ($0.00)

  13. Costs of VLM (continued) • Type I error: Cost of Incorrectly Leaving One Invalid Voter on the Voter Rolls ($0.05) • Type II error: Cost of Incorrectly Inactivating a Valid Voter from the Voter Rolls ($8.36)

  14. Results: Net Present Value

  15. Limitations • Staff time costs associated with processing undeliverable postcards • Quantifying Type II errors • Additional social cost of errors • Voter fraud • Disenfranchisement

  16. Questions?

  17. Rule Out Municipal-Level Policies

  18. Rule Out County-Level policies

  19. VLM Across Time

  20. % of Voters Registered with NCOA

  21. Type I Error Costs

  22. Net Benefits Equation

  23. Cost of Printing Notification PostcardsCost of Mailing Notification Postcards

  24. Cost of Processing Returned Postcards

  25. Type I Errors = Cost of Failing to Remove Ineligible Voters

  26. Type II Errors = Cost of Incorrectly Removing Voters Who Have Not Moved

  27. Annual Costs

  28. Projected Total Costs of Current Policy

  29. Projected Net Present Benefits of NCOA-Only Alternative

  30. Projected Net Present Benefits of Hybrid Option

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