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The SAMPERS project - an over view

The SAMPERS project - an over view. By Gunnar Johansson Sveder Transek AB Postal address: Solna Torg 3, S-171 45 Solna, Sweden Tel: +46 8 735 24 49, Fax: +46 8 735 20 30 e-mail: gunnarj@transek.se, web: www.Transek.se. Long tradition of cost-benefit analysis of investment projects

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The SAMPERS project - an over view

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  1. The SAMPERS project- an over view By Gunnar Johansson Sveder Transek AB Postal address: Solna Torg 3, S-171 45 Solna, Sweden Tel: +46 8 735 24 49, Fax: +46 8 735 20 30 e-mail: gunnarj@transek.se, web: www.Transek.se

  2. Long tradition of cost-benefit analysis of investment projects Long tradition of modelling - from 4-step to disaggregate systems SAMPLAN, extensive co-operation between agencies responsible for road, rail, air, sea National transportation plan, investment plan, transportation policy: maintenance, taxation, road pricing, technical development, regulations Evaluation of alternative scenarios the society efficiency, environment, safety, regional balance Detailed cost-benefit analysis Background

  3. National road network data bank Public transport (train, bus, air ) Maps EMME/2 GIS EVA CBA - assessment IC/3 long distance FREDRIK regional trips Socio-economic data Car owner ship The old national traffic forecast system

  4. Contract April 1998 New traffic demand models Current data National travel survey (1994-1997) SP-survey (time of day) Fehmarn Belt, Öresund All trips Regional National long distance International Time of day modelling Long distance public transport trips Secondary destination Regional trips Computer System EMME/2 Plenty of forecast parameters Integrated into one single user-friendly system Car ownership Demand models Impact calculation Cost benefit analysis Accessibility calculation Flexibility to output data Validation Delivery, spring and autumn 1999 The project

  5. The project process Data assembling Quality control Trips construction Estimation Client approval Model implementation Validation (Survey, Elasticity) Validation (Traffic counts)

  6. Trip No trip Trip No trip Home based Secondary destination Working place based Car dr. Car pas. Bus Train Pedesr. Bike Bf Bp B T G C Bf Bp B T G C Bf Bp B T G C Dest1…n ……. ……. ……. Dest1…n Dest1…n Dest1…n Demand models - Regional trips • Nested logit models • Secondary destinations • Trip purposes • Home-work trip • Recreation • Personal visits • School trips • Business • and other • Sweden divided into five regions • Total 8000 zones

  7. Nested logit models Time table assignment Time of day models Trip purposes Business Duration 0 days Duration 1+days Private Duration 1 day Duration 2-5 days Duration 5+ days Total 670 zones Trip frequency Trip No trip Destination Mode Destinations Time of day Type of ticket Bus Air Car IC train X2000 train Demand models - National long distance trips

  8. Energy consumption Petrol, Diesel Costs Exhaust emissions NOx, HC, Particulate, CO2, SO2 Costs Traffic safety Number of killed Number of severely injured Number of slightly injured Wildlife accidents Costs Maintenance costs Consumer surplus CBA Impact & Cost benefit analysis

  9. Technology Windows NT Database Access (ODBC) Software Visual Basic 5 PowerPlay Object oriented approach Multiprocessing Export file format EMME/2 Data bas Filter matrices Excel Standard report GIS MapInfo/ArcView Micro simulation system Contram ... Computer system

  10. Long dist. Regional Emme/2 Power Impact Internat. Play trip trip CBA trip SAMPERS Scenario handler system Data base Computer system

  11. No “Base matrix” Model estimation Value of time Elasticity After implementation Elasticity Model vs Survey Trip frequency by mode and trip propose Trip length Traffic production (mileage) Assigned traffic Counts Roads Trains Airports Ferries Model validation

  12. Mälar lake region, number of trips, model divided by survey

  13. Mälar lake region, number of trips, model divided by survey

  14. South region, number of home-work trips by travel distance in km

  15. Traffic production, km per day

  16. Road traffic south of Malmö city

  17. Road traffic west region

  18. Road traffic around the city of Jönköping

  19. Passenger in the Stockholm underground system

  20. Options Integration of a new car owner ship model, liked by logsum variables to the demand model Integration of land use model Future possibilities

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