Code 300 Orientation Code 322: Reliability and Risk Analysis Branch

1. Code 300 OrientationCode 322: Reliability and Risk Analysis Branch Name: Tony DiVenti Title: Branch Chief Office: Reliability and Risk Analysis Tel: (301) 286-6507 Email: Anthony.J.DiVenti@nasa.gov

2. Why Do We Need Reliability and Risk Analyses? Ariane V Challenger Mishaps, Catastrophic Events Successful, Safe, Reliable, Qualified Quality – “Fitness for use” or “Conforming to design, specification, or reqts” Safety – Ensuring potential conditions/faults will not propagate into hazardous or catastrophic events Mission Success – Meeting all mission specifications, requirements, objectives over the design life. Risk – “The possibility of a problem being realized” or “Likelihood, Scenario, Impact” Reliability – “Quality or mission success over time” “Reliability and Risk Analysis - Designing out or mitigating potential problems/barriers to mission success and safety before they can occur“ Primary focus of reliability and risk analysis

3. Key Responsibilities Specific Indirect Duties (excluding typical supervisory duties): • Strategic Planning/Initiative Development • HQ, Agency, Industry Partner, and Center Collaborations • Internal/External Assessments & Surveys • (based on needs and requirements) • Benchmark “Best in Class” activities • Gap and SWOT analysis • Strategic Plan Development • Capabilities Development • Tool/ Process Development and • Documentation • Procedure Development • Training • Education • RTOP Development Specific Direct Duties (in-house and out-of-house development efforts): • Reliability Requirements Planning: • Proposal • Contract • SOW • Mission Assurance Requirement (MAR) • Reliability Program Planning (RPP)* • Data Collection • Test Planning and Assessment • *includes PRA Planning • Engineering Assessments/Analyses: • Reliability Modeling, Simulation, and Predictions • Failure Modes &Effects Analyses (FMECA/FMEA) • Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) • Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) • Trade Studies/Evaluations • Limited-Life Analysis • Data/Trending/Inference Analysis • Parts Stress and Derating Analysis • Worst Case Analysis • Fault Management • Consultation: • Training • Failure Investigations/Root Cause Analysis • Problem and/or risk resolution • Surveillance: • Internal and external surveys/audits • Analyses/assessment report approval • Reviews (e.g., Peer, Mishap Investigation, etc.) • Reliability and PRA working group leadership • Technical Interchange Meetings (TIMs)

4. 2009 Annual Operating Agreement • The Reliability and Risk Analysis Branch (RRAB) assists GSFC missions in implementing an effective risk assessment and reliability program for spacecraft, instrument, ground, and launch vehicle systems. Specific activities include: • Tailoring project requirements to the mission risk profile per NPR 8705.4 Risk Classification for NASA Missions. • Ensuring NPR 8000.4 Risk Management requirements are clearly flowed down and defined in GSFC procedures and/or process • Providing support to NASA GSFC projects and institutional organizations in the development and maintenance of risk management processes. Support activities may include training, risk management meeting facilitation, integrated risk management consultation, independent assessments, etc. • Performing System Risk Assessments and Reliability/Maintainability analyses such as: Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analyses (FMEA) & Critical Item List (CIL) development, modeling & trade studies, Worst Case Analysis (WCA), Parts Stress & Derating Analysis, and other analyses that support the mission’s engineering and decision making functions. • Providing specific systems expertise to ensure that reliability, availability, and maintainability factors (as required) are designed and integrated into GSFC systems. Participate in reviews as required. • Review and assess operating and manufacturing processes/procedures. Provide support during the development & test of mission hardware & software (e.g. data/trending analysis, root cause and corrective action analysis). • Maintain and analyze on-orbit anomaly data & heritage information to support on-orbit performance assessments for current and future missions. • The Branch provides technical experts, engineers, and Chief SMA Officers (CSOs) to support projects, independent reviews, and assessments.

5. Reliability and Risk Analyses Activities over the Program/Project Life Cycle • Pre Phase A/ Phase A • Proposal Support • Develop resource/ funding plans • Contract, SOW, MAR, RPP Development • Preliminary Technology and Requirement Analysis • Data Collection • Preliminary Concept feasibility and Life Cycle Trade Studies • Risk Assessments • Risk Management Support • Phase B/ Phase C/ Phase D • Finalize conversion of reliability performance requirements from mission needs • Engineering Analysis (see slide 6) • Surveillance (see slide 7) • Verification of improvements previously identified through FMEA, FTA, etc. • Review and assess applicable test data • Risk Assessments • Risk Management Support • Phase E • Lessons Learned/Data Collection from On-Orbit Experience • Mission Extension/De-Orbit Reliability analysis and Risk Assessments • Risk Management Support

6. Engineering Analysis Examples An example of a trade study

7. Engineering Analysis Examples Example from a Design/Interface FMEA of the JWST Spacewire Test Set Severity Level 2: Critical – Failure modes that could result in loss of one or more mission objectives

8. Engineering Analysis Examples Section of an FTA from the STEREO Project AND Gate and also Top Gate OR Gate Transfer Gate Basic Event Repeated Basic Event

9. Engineering Analysis Examples Example from the GLAST/ACD Limited Life Item Analysis

10. Engineering Analysis Examples Example from a Process FMEA for the GLAST Vertical Lift Ground Support Equipment Operation

11. Engineering Analysis Example An a excerpted example of an Event Tree from GLAST Launch Vehicle separation risk assessment

12. Engineering Analysis Examples

13. Integrated Risk Management Process

14. 5 4 3 Likelihood 2 Consequence 1 2 3 4 5 1 HIGH RISKS MODERATE RISKS LOW RISKS Risk Management 5x5 Definitions

15. Success Stories • A complex Sample Manipulation System consisting 73 springs in series, with any single spring failure resulting in loss of the SAM Instrument, was re-designed. Code 322 played a critical role in the evaluation of this risk that included site visit, failure mode analysis, independent TRL assessment, and risk management support. • HiPot testing for the SAM Wide Range Pump motor was instituted to eliminate corresponding workmanship related failures at the recommendation of Code 322. • Reviewed requirements and activities performed for the VCL Bus , built back in the 90’s, which is now being used as the GLORY bus. Code 322 discovered that parts stress and derating analysis was incomplete for several key components. Through negotiations with project and the VCL/GLORY developer, we agreed that analysis needed to be completed. Several overstressed piece-parts identified as a result of this process, which could have led to a premature mission failure, were uncovered and replaced.

16. On-going Challenges • Data Collection and Analysis Process • Capture data from closed loop Problem Reports (PRs)/Problem Failure Reports (PFRs)/On-Orbit Anomaly Reporting systems to support future reliability analysis and risk assessments • Characterize lessons learned, heritage information, and on-orbit history in a way that is most useful in early concept and design activities • Needs to be user/stakeholder friendly (e.g., problem reports can not be burdensome) • Clearer requirements flow-down • Consistent flow-down of NPDs and NPRs to in-house and out-of-house development efforts • Fill in missing links (STDs, MARs, GPRs, PGs, WIs, etc.) • Clearer tie-in with NRP 7120 and Systems Engineering processes • S/W Reliability • Need to establish clear guidance and direction for the center • Upfront in-direct funding, or project sponsored direct funding, needed to help facilitate these efforts