Current Market Situation For Grains and Cattle!

1. Current Market Situation For Grains and Cattle! Rodney Jones OSU NW Area Extension Economist

2. Start With Grains • We now have a drought that matters!!! • 55 to 60% of U.S. Ag Land under drought conditions

3. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

4. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC

5. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC

6. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC

7. CBT Corn, Dec. ‘2012

8. Corn Relevant Numbers Current Projections Average Billion Bushels U.S. Ending Stocks World Ending Stocks

10. Feedgrain Considerations • World ending stocks projections about average, U.S. well below average • Yields and harvested acres keep getting trimmed • In short crop years prices peak early • Demand may waiver at high prices

11. CBT Soybeans, Nov. ‘2012

12. U. S.Price EndingStocks Year Production Consumption U.S. Soybean Situation (Billion Bushels)

13. EndingStocks Year Production Consumption World Soybean Situation (Billion Bushels)

14. Soybean Relevant Numbers Average Current Projections Billion Bushels U.S. Ending Stocks World Ending Stocks

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16. Soybean Considerations • U.S. Ending stocks projected to be well below average World ending stocks projected to be slightly below average • Weather influence comes later than for corn • Yields projections continue to fall • South America will plant a lot of beans

17. KCBT Wheat, Dec ‘012

18. U. S.Price EndingStocks Year Production Consumption U.S. Wheat Situation (Billion Bushels)

19. EndingStocks Year Production Consumption World Wheat Situation (Billion Bushels)

20. Wheat Relevant Numbers Current Projections Average Billion Bushels U.S. Ending Stocks World Ending Stocks

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22. Wheat Considerations • Wheat fundamentals cannot support current prices on own • With that said, the supply situation is tightening relative to last few years • World economic concerns may be the biggest downside risk (remember 2008 – 2009) • Very strong incentive to pull acres out of wheat and go to canola in areas where that is an option

23. Economic Output% Change (2012, 2013 projected), IMF

24. Economic Output% Change (2012, 2013 projected), IMF

25. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

26. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

27. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

28. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

29. +1.4% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

30. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

31. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

32. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

33. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

34. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

35. Total Meat Supplies Down in 2012 2011 2012 • Beef ↓0.4% ↓2.6% • Pork ↑1.5% ↑2.4% • Broilers ↑1.1% 0.0% • Total Meat ↑0.9% 0.0%

36. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

37. Data Source: KSU Focus on Feedlots, Compiled by LMIC

38. Steer Price, Total Value and Value of Gain Jun 2012, Oklahoma 7-Market Ave. Value of forage is high for cow-calf and a wide range of stocker production

39. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

40. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

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