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Members’ Meeting. October 30, 2013. How Are the Markets Looking?. Spot Margins are Still Positive Markets are Still Highly Inverted for the Next 5 Months We are Anticipating the Inverse Break as Harvest Fills the Pipeline Exports Still Look Strong for Q4 ‘13 and Q1 ’ 14
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Members’ Meeting October 30, 2013
How Are the Markets Looking? • Spot Margins are Still Positive • Markets are Still Highly Inverted for the Next 5 Months • We are Anticipating the Inverse Break as Harvest Fills the Pipeline • Exports Still Look Strong for Q4 ‘13 and Q1 ’14 • Exports Will Still Drive Q1 ‘14 Margins • It Doesn’t Look Like Brazil Will be a Factor at Least Thru Apr ‘14 • We Have a Good Local Supply of Grain for the Upcoming Year • Declining cattle numbers could impact WDG demand
How is the Industry Looking? • Nothing new From the EPA at This Point • CA Carbon is Still Strong • We Hope to Hear Back from CARB by Year-end • We Scheduling our Enogen Startup at BBE for Dec. • AE is Scheduled for mid 2015 • California Will Continue to be the Market for BBE • AE Will Participate in the Robust Export Market
No decisions have been made on the RFS2 • EPA is scheduled to announce ‘14 blending requirementsin Nov. • We are not aware of any adverse decisions at this time • 14.2B gals would support current domestic production • Or any combination of domestic usage and exports • We believe there will be changes to the cellulosic and advanced biofuel requirements • The current RBOB / Ethanol spread should encourage higher blend usage. • 2014 will bring significant decisions impacting our industry. • RIN prices have declined from a high of $1.50 to $0.22 cents
Operational Summary • Production • AET – 102% of Nameplate Q3 and 101% YTD • BBE – 100% of Nameplate Q3 and 102% YTD • Both Plants Had Annual Maintenance Shut Downs in Aug • Yields • Arkalon Averaged 2.77 YTD Adjusted for Export Sales • Bonanza Averaged 2.83 for Q3 • 2012 Crop Starch Content was Lower Than Average • 2013 Crop Starch Should be Higher • Operational Initiatives • Working With Marshall Institute to Dial in Efficiency and Preventative Maintenance as Plants Age
Things are Better in 2013 Crush Margins Improved $.20 per Gallon YOY at AET Crush Margins Improved $.58 per Gallon YOY at BBE – CA Markets Were Very Good
Conestoga Energy Partners Net Revenues = Total Fee Revenue + Logistics Gross Profit
Arkalon Refinance • Arkalon Will be Refinanced by end of October • Will Ultimately Save • $5.5MM in Principal, or $0.05 per gal • Reduce Interest Costs by 125bps based on Fixed Rate of 5% • Increase in Unit Equity Equity of $98/Unit • We Will Begin the Process of Seeking to Combine all Term Debt Under Conestoga Energy Holdings
Questions • Will There be a Distribution This Year? • We are Expecting to Make Distributions but Need to see how Things Shape up in Q4/Q1 to Determine the Amounts • Will There be a Tax Liability This Year? • We are Projecting a Positive NI and There Will be a Liability. We are Working on Mitigating the Impact to our Members and Will Have Some Communication to our Members in Q4.
Questions • Are There any Risks That we Haven’t Already Discussed? • No new Risks at This Time. We Will Always Have Market Risk, Weather Risks and for the Time Being Legislative Risks.