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POSSIBLE CAUSES OF WAR: What would be the best way to prevent each kind of conflict?

Is it always possible to say who started a war? (Israel attacked Egypt, Jordan, and Syria on June 5, 1967, but those countries had forged an alliance for the destruction of Israel.). POSSIBLE CAUSES OF WAR: What would be the best way to prevent each kind of conflict?.

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POSSIBLE CAUSES OF WAR: What would be the best way to prevent each kind of conflict?

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  1. Is it always possible to say who started a war?(Israel attacked Egypt, Jordan, and Syria on June 5, 1967,but those countries had forged an alliance for the destruction of Israel.)

  2. POSSIBLE CAUSES OF WAR:What would be the best way to prevent each kind of conflict? • AGGRESSION: At least one actor in the international system believes that it would profit from war and has a good chance to win. Remedy: “deterrence” • SPIRAL OF TENSIONS: One actor responds to a perceived threat with what it regards as a defensive measure, but the other actors perceive this as a threat and respond in kind. Remedy? • PREEMPTION (as with the Six Day Arab-Israeli War of 1967). Remedy? • TO COMBAT INJUSTICE (e.g., overthrow tyranny or achieve national liberation). Remedy?

  3. Europe in 1763: The “Great Powers” were France, Austria, Russia, Prussia, and Great Britain. Spain, Sweden, Poland, & Turkey were declining powers…

  4. European Colonial Empires in 1783

  5. Some great thinkers of the Enlightenment called for the abolition of war Immanuel Kant (1724-1804), offered a plan for a “League of Nations” inOnEternal Peace (1795). An admirer of the French Revolution, he argued that monarchy caused war, and that wars could be eliminated when democratic republics replaced the monarchies….

  6. Austria, Prussia, & Britain invaded France in 1792/93.In response the French Republic proclaimed “the liberty and sovereignty of all Peoples.”

  7. Napoleon completely upset the “balance of power” until 1814

  8. The Congress of Vienna: Aristocrats forged an enduring peacewithout any regard for “public opinion” in 1815

  9. Prince Metternich (1773-1859) based the peace settlement on two principles: • THE BALANCE OF POWER • DYNASTIC LEGITIMACY He despised public opinion and nationalism but earned the admiration of the historian Harold Nicolson.

  10. Europe following the Congress of Vienna in 1815

  11. Emperor Napoleon III Count Camillo di Cavour,Prime Minister of Piedmont

  12. Otto von Bismarck (1815-1898) became Prime Minister of Prussia in 1862 and achieved German unification through wars with Denmark, Austria, and France--- the foremost practitioner of Realpolitik

  13. William I hailed as German Kaiser, Versailles, January 18, 1871

  14. Germany now had 65 million citizens, vs. 40 million for France

  15. “France Signing the Preliminary Peace Terms” (March 1871):Alsace & Lorraine ripped from the bosom of their mother…

  16. “The Congress of Berlin, June-July 1878”(Bismarck promotes balance between Austria and Russia in the Balkans)

  17. The Treaty of Berlin (1878) recognized Serbia & Romania as sovereign and divided Bulgaria (until 1886)

  18. THE DUAL ALLIANCE OF OCT. 1879 (Austria+Germany, joined by Italy in 1882) • ART. 1: “Should, contrary to their hope, and against the loyal desire of the two High Contracting Parties, one of the two Empires be attacked by Russia, the High Contracting Parties are bound to come to the assistance one of the other with the whole war strength of their Empires, and accordingly only to conclude peace together and upon mutual agreement.” • ART. 2: “Should one of the High Contracting Parties be attacked by another Power, the other High Contracting Party binds itself hereby, not only not to support the aggressor against its high Ally, but to observe at least a benevolent neutral attitude towards its fellow Contracting Party.” • ART. 3: This treaty will be kept secret, but if Russia’s armaments prove to be menacing, “the two High Contracting Parties would consider it their loyal obligation to let the Emperor Alexander know, at least confidentially, that they must consider an attack on either of them as directed against both.”

  19. Germany’s only reliable ally, Austria-Hungary, was especially vulnerable to nationalist agitation among its Slavic subjects

  20. The “Scramble for Africa” began around 1880,boosted by the development of tropical medicine and machine guns

  21. The Pilot Leaves the Ship, Punch, March 1890 Kaiser Wilhelm II (1888-1918)

  22. Tsar Alexander III (born 1845, reigned 1881-1894)found that his diplomats urged friendship with Germany, but his generals, an alliance with France

  23. Franco-Russian Military Convention of August 1892 • If France is attacked by Germany or by Italy supported by Germany, Russia will employ all its available forces to attack Germany. If Russia is attacked by Germany or by Austria supported by Germany, France will employ all its available forces to combat Germany.  • In case the forces of the Triple Alliance or of one of its members begin to mobilize, France and Russia will immediately and simultaneously mobilize all of their forces and deploy them as close to their borders as possible, as soon as the enemy mobilization is announced…. • The forces available for deployment against Germany will amount to 1,300,000 men on the part of France, and 700-800,000 men on the part of Russia. These forces are dedicated to combating Germany simultaneously from the East and West in the most effective manner possible. • The military general staffs of the two countries will deliberate together to prepare and execute the measures outlined above…. • France and Russia will not conclude a separate peace.  • This convention will have the same duration as the Triple Alliance.

  24. The “Schlieffen Plan” of 1905 [?] vs. the French “Plan XVII”

  25. German High Seas Fleeton maneuver in the North Sea (ca. 1910, with Zeppelin)

  26. Cartoon in Punch to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the Entente cordiale (April 1914):Marianne has become Britannia’s best friend

  27. The Anglo-Russian Entente of 1907

  28. Europe around 1908 was polarized betweenthe Triple Alliance and Triple Entente

  29. Rival nationalisms in the Balkans: In 1908 Austria annexed Bosnia and then broke its promise to help Russia gain freedom of the Straits

  30. The Balkan Wars, 1912/13

  31. Franz Ferdinand and his wife leave for the hospital to visit their wounded aide, Sarajevo, June 28, 1914

  32. The chauffeur made a wrong turn on the way to the hospital and stopped to turn around, next to Gavrilo Princip

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