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The Past as Prologue: Partisanship and Competition in Recent Elections (2)

Exploring the impact of Latinos in recent elections, analyzing their voter eligibility, issues that shape their vote choice, and the influence of electoral rules on Latino political influence.

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The Past as Prologue: Partisanship and Competition in Recent Elections (2)

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  1. The Past as Prologue:Partisanship and Competition in Recent Elections (2) Latinos and the 2008 Elections Lecture 8 October 23, 2008

  2. Prologues • Conclude viewing • Viewing of CNN Election 2000: 36 Days that Gripped the Nation

  3. Lessons from Conclusion of 2000 Race • Ballot design and voting technologies • Does “every vote count?” • Bush v. Gore (new role of courts?) • Campaigns invest in potential legal challenges 2008 (and beyond) • Renewed attention to voter eligibility • The Electoral College and the dominance of the “battleground state”

  4. Bush v. Gore – A New Set of Rules? • Issues before the court • Are recounts constitutional? • If they are unconstitutional, what’s the remedy? • Holding • State violated equal protection clause of U.S. constitutions 14th Amendment – no equal standard across Florida counties • No remedy – the date of the Supreme Court’s decision was the day that Florida had established as a deadline • Majority opinion asserts -- “limited to the present circumstances” or could place the courts in the center of election disputes

  5. Questions to Consider for This Week’s Readings • Why don’t eligible Latinos naturalize? • Were citizenship-eligible Latinos to naturalize, how would they change the Latino vote (think in terms of impact and in terms of issues)? • What issues shape Latino vote choice in 2008?

  6. Stages of the Presidential Campaign • Pre-campaign • Candidate self-selection • Key time point – previous mid-term election • Primaries • Candidate selection, usually early in primary season (late Winter) • Candidate positioning and fundraising • Convention • Opportunity for party elites to meet and greet • Uninterrupted opportunity to state message • General election

  7. 2000 and 2004 Primaries • Democrats seeking to create opportunity for Latino voice (2004) • Latino Democrats joined the Gore and Kerry bandwagons earlier and stronger • They did little to campaign for their votes, though • Result –untested in terms of outreach • 2004 – Sharpton (African American candidate) didn’t appeal to Latino voters • Black plurality always went to Kerry • Latinos supported only marginally more than whites

  8. Latinos and the Party Conventions, 2000 and 2004 • Number of Latino delegates steadily growing, particularly on Democratic side • 2000 • Los Angeles site of Democratic convention • Bush assured a prominent symbolic place for Latinos entertainers and political leaders • 2004 • Bill Richardson, Chair of Democratic Convention • Latino delegates did organize and saw daily visits from party leaders • Few prominent Latino speakers during prime time • Latino delegates, like most delegates, window dressing • Conventions offer little opportunity to shape candidate’s policy objectives

  9. Democratic Party Delegates, by Race/Ethnicity, 1984-2008

  10. Where Were Latinos at the Start of the Fall Campaign? • 2000 & 2004 – competitive states not the big Latino states • Latinos less courted that in 1996 • Gore and Kerry showed little Latino outreach • Campaigns moved to Tennessee, Boston, and Austin • Bush (2001) made a major symbolic proposal – the guest worker program – but had done little to follow up • Kerry tried to reach out as a Catholic and through Teresa Kerry (an immigrant from Mozambique who ancestry is Portuguese)

  11. Latino Votes in the 2000 and 2004 Elections • Latino voices muted (in federal races) • Outcome of elections was out of the control of Latino communities • In states where unity and turnout could have led to influence, the evidence is mixed • Concerns about exit polls will make the Latino voice a subject of continuing dispute

  12. Latino Vote Share, 2004

  13. These Results Somewhat Disputed William C. Velasquez Research Institute Exit Poll • Nation • Kerry – 67.7 percent • Bush – 31.4 percent • Sample – 1,179 respondents in 56 precincts in 14 states • Florida • Kerry – 52.0 percent • Bush – 45.7 percent • Sample – 1,147 respondents in 45 precincts in nine counties

  14. Who in the Latino Community Shifted Between 2000 and 2004? • Toward Bush • Texas Latinos • Religiously-observant Latinos • 2nd generation (the children of immigrants) • Toward Kerry/the Democrats • Florida Latinos • 2nd generation Cubans • Unique to 2004 • Two Senate races with Latino candidates

  15. Latino Vote ShareSenate Races, 2004

  16. Questions for Next Week’s Readings • Under what circumstances can Latinos influence the outcomes of statewide elections? • Think about different forms of influence • And different ways that influence can be evaluated • How could electoral rules/practices be changed to enhance Latino influence?

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