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A Mathematical Tour of the State of the Planet

A Mathematical Tour of the State of the Planet. Thomas J. Pfaff Ithaca College. M. King Hubbert’s (1903-1989), chief consultant-general geology- for shell development company, 1956 paper Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels. Normal Density:.

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A Mathematical Tour of the State of the Planet

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  1. A Mathematical Tour of the State of the Planet Thomas J. Pfaff Ithaca College

  2. M. King Hubbert’s (1903-1989), chief consultant-general geology- for shell development company, 1956 paper Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels.

  3. Normal Density: • 55% of all domestic oil was consumed from 1960 to 2000: • 99% of all domestic oil is predicted to be consumed by 2036:

  4. http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/22/04219/1102

  5. "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command guardian.co.uk, Sunday 11 April 2010

  6. A Look at Global Temperature T(x)=0.0005x2 -0.00464x+57.133 F T’(x)=0.001x-0.00464 F/year x years after 1950 • T(59)= 58.56 F and T’(58)=0.05 F/year • In 2009 the average global temperature was 58.56 deg F and increasing at a rate of 0.05 deg F per year.

  7. Temperature Predictions • T(100)=61.55 F and T(150)=67.43 F • The model predicts that in 2050 the average temperature will be 61.55 deg F, and in 2100 it will be 67.43 deg F, an increase of 3.43 and 9.31 deg F, respectively, since 2000.

  8. More Temperature Predictions • Using T’(58)=.0528 F/year • If global temperatures continue to increase at current rates, then by 2050 there will be an increase of 2.61 deg F and by 2100 there will be an increase of 5.26 deg F since 2000. The average global temperature in those years will be 60.73 and 63.38, respectively.

  9. -National Academies Report on Climate Change (March 2006)

  10. National Academies Report: Climate Change The rising temperature observed since 1978 are particularly noteworthy because the rate of increase is so high and because, during the same period, the energy reaching the Earth from the Sun had been measured precisely enough to conclude that Earth’s warming was not due to changes in the Sun. -March 2006

  11. Summary of Sea Ice • 1980 • Max: 16.13 msk, x=2.59 • Min: 7.86 msk, x=8.79 • Inf: -2.20 msk/month, x=6.44 • Melt Period: 6.20 months • 2008 • Max: 15.11 msk, x=2.26 • Min: 5.40 msk, x=8.80 • Inf: -2.84 msk/month, x=6.77 • Melt Period: 6.54 months

  12. Slopes of Lines • March: -0.043 msk/yr, (-0.054, -0.032) • Sept: -0.079 msk/yr, ( -0.100, -0.057)

  13. 1941 Muir Glacier, Alaska 2004 1941 2004

  14. Glacier Melting Facts • Two BILLION people in more than a dozen countries depend on rivers fed by the snow and ice of the plateau region. (Nat Geo, April 2010) • The Tibetan Plateau as a whole is heating up twice as fast as the global average. (Nat Geo, April 2010) • Snowpack too!

  15. Work with Brian McGauvran

  16. Observed Ithaca Maxima Predicted Ithaca Maxima

  17. THE END www.ithaca.edu/tpfaff/sustainability.htm tpfaff@ithaca.edu Partly Supported by NSF DUE-0837721

  18. So, What Do We Do? • Live Local • Learn Practical Skills • Make Smart Choices

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