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Ruralisation – integrating settlements and agriculture to provide sustainability

This workshop explores the concept of ruralisation, integrating settlements and agriculture to provide sustainable solutions for energy, food, and nutrient management. It discusses the impact of energy availability, adaptation to cheap energy, and the importance of nutrient recycling. The workshop aims to address the question of whether energy prices will continue to be low and the potential long-term effects of decreased energy availability. Join us to explore sustainable solutions for a resilient future.

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Ruralisation – integrating settlements and agriculture to provide sustainability

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  1. Ruralisation – integrating settlements and agriculture to provide sustainability Folke Günther Dept. of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University E-mail: folke@holon.se URL: http://etnhum.etn.lu.se/~fg/index.htm

  2. Is energy cheap? Availabilty for gasoline energy at gas station (working time for one kWh) Energy availability today: About ten times more than 1920 folke@holon.se

  3. Adaptation to cheap energy: Case 1: agriculture Improved wheat High yield (seed productionwith residual energy) The farmer takes care of: Wild wheat Low yield (seed productionwith residual energy) Pest defence Competition with neighbours Necessary functions: Seed distribution Pest defence Seed distribution Planting Competition with neighbours by the use of fossil fuels Planting folke@holon.se

  4. Food management: (Energy efficiency less than 10:1) Assumed local handling, 4000 kWh Necessary for respiration, 4000 kWh The car (assuming 15000 km/yr) The house: Conventional house (according to ’Byggnorm 80’) Heavy car(10-12 l/100 km) Light car(5-7 l/100 km) Super-isolated house Saving potential: about 6 000 kWh/yr Saving potential: about 8 000 kWh/yr Adaptation to cheap energy,Case 2: settlements Assume: Four persons living in a house Saving potential: about 32 000 kWh/yr(associated with vulnerability to high energy prices) folke@holon.se

  5. Will energy prices continue to be low? This is what this workshop is about, so I will not delay on that You all have a good insight into theese matters. folke@holon.se

  6. Will energy prices continue to be low? The Big rollover Will this be our gloomy future? folke@holon.se

  7. However, the effects of decreased energy availability must be considered • For food production, nutrient availability is essential • Of the nutrients, those with limited supply are essential • Biological systems solved these problems about 400 millon years ago • Cyclic flows folke@holon.se

  8. Must be concentrated in the body 10 times more common in the body than in the Earth crust Why phosphorus? The constituents of an animal (or vegetable) body: H O C N S P Na K Ca …64 H O C N S With gaseous phases — can be transported by the air P Na K Ca …64 Without gaseous phases — must be transported as solids or liquids Na K Ca …64 More common in the Earth crust than in the body folke@holon.se

  9. The HEAP trap Hampered Effluent Accumulation Process folke@holon.se

  10. STORAGE EXHAUSTION:P extraction horizon: about 130 years (at current energy price)Increasing energy use per unitActual extraction horizon: Unknown HEAP:Leakageequalsimport HEAP:Leakageequalsimport Linear flows — typical for western agriculture Import of nutrients compensates export of produce folke@holon.se

  11. Linear flows Fossil fuel demand Resource depletion Fossil fuel demand Fossil fuel demand Fossil fuel demand HEAP Fossil fuel demand Fossil fuel demand Fossil fuel demand HEAP Fossil fuel demand Fossil fuel demand Resource depletion A linear flow from sources to sea Resource depletion Energy demanding and unsustainable folke@holon.se

  12. ’Balanced agriculture’: -- manure is used for fodder production About 80% of the nutrients are circulated This amount, 20% need to be imported About 20% is exported AGRICULTURE The balanced agriculture — settlement SETTLEMENT Hence, one person is in nutrient balance with about 0.2 hectares of balanced agriculture 3-4 kg represents the phosphorus turnover of about 5 persons folke@holon.se

  13. Conclusion 1 About 6 persons are in nutrient balance with 1 hectare of balanced agriculture This means that about 0.2 hectares of such agriculture can support one individual without HEAP effects Given that the the agriculture provides the people with food and nutrient containing residues are returned to the agriculture folke@holon.se

  14. Rules for sustainability • You can not be dependent on storages • Neither of energy Solution: Energy flows • Nor of nutrients Solution: Recycling Corollary: Food should be produced as close as possible to the consumer in order to diminish food system energy needs and maximise nutrient recycling capacity You must have a supportive function on your support system Solution: Improve(not just maintain) the health of your ecosystem folke@holon.se

  15. Plant nutriens in food arereturned to agriculture The eco-unit Area: 50 ha for 200 inhabitants Diversified agriculture Functional size, pop. about 200 Providing most of the human foodand all of the animal fodder Open ditches Orchards Private gardens Nutrient reclaimLandscape diversityPredator habitatLee – planting Biomass production Biological greywater treatment plant (wetpark)Clean water is returned to the households Fossil fuel demand is minimized— vulnerability to fuel price changes is minimized folke@holon.se

  16. The ruralisation scenario – start point In this scenario, the following things are supposed: # A scenario is an imagination made by a scientist 4. Instead of building new houses on the placeswhere the old ones were torn down, they decide to build eco-units in the periphery of the town. 1. The city is inhabited by decisionmakers who have the capacity to make far-sighted and strategic decisions 2. They have the same knowledge of limiting resources, ecology and the principles of oil depletion as you. 3. Furthermore, they understand that the city is not static, but dynamic. Old houses are torne down and new are built. (The average life-time for a house is supposed to be 60 years, which gives the city a rate of change of 1,6%) At start point, the centre of the municipality has a population of 33 000The periphery is inhabited by 3 000 # The rules are: You can imagine the most ridiculous things But you have to render a statement of the effects folke@holon.se

  17. Ruralisation – after 12 years With the given rate of change, the centre of the municipality has a population of 24 000The periphery is inhabited by 12 000 Groups of four Eco-unitsEach group is inhabited by 800 people Local parks replacing the old houses folke@holon.se

  18. Ruralisation – after 25 years At this stage, the centre of the municipality has a population of 12 000The periphery is inhabited by 24 000 Reversed ditching: Underground streams are brought up to the surface 5 600 persons folke@holon.se

  19. Area with integrated agriculture – settlements.Population density closing to 500/km2 … and the decision-makers are still there.. Ruralisation – after 50 years At the end of the ruralisation process, the centre of the municipality has a population of 3 000The periphery is inhabited by 36 000 • Minimal dependency of fuel storages due to: • Localised food-system • Use of wind, solar-power and biomass Many characteristics of the area (P/R-ratio, nutrient retention capacity, mutualism, biodiversity) are closing to those of mature ecosystems. No HEAP-trapNutrients are circulated folke@holon.se

  20. Very small difference: Increased human transport equals diminished food transport 2,000,000,000 SEK difference The economy of ruralisation In this calculation, it is not possible to account for changes of the ’Rollover’ type. Therefore, continuous, steady changes of energy prices are assumed (In this case: 5% annual increase in price for industrial energy, and 2% for renewable energy sources) Unchanged city Ruralisation folke@holon.se

  21. Conclusions There is an immediate need for finding strategies to avoid dependence on storages of: Energy Nutrients For sustainability, these strategies must also include a supportive behaviour towards the supporting ecosystems Regarding these restrictions, the urban structure common today is unsustainable folke@holon.se

  22. Conclusions To avoid dependence onstorages of: Energy — use flows or funds Nutrients — recycle This will impose restrictions on distance folke@holon.se

  23. Conclusions These strategies can be established in the border of the urban structures common today folke@holon.se

  24. Conclusion By advanced undulation of the borders, leading to the integration of the city with its hinterland, some obstacles to sustainability may be overcome folke@holon.se

  25. Society planning strategy Right Wrong Industrial energy availability: Hard(> 500 s/kWh) OK OK (?) Industrial energy availability: Easy(< 100 s/kWh) OK (?) folke@holon.se

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