World Climate Research Programme: Moving Towards Future CLIVAR SSG 18 IOC UNESCO, 2-5 May 2011

1. World Climate Research Programme: Moving Towards FutureCLIVAR SSG 18IOC UNESCO, 2-5 May 2011 Ghassem R Asrar Director, WCRP

2. WCRP JSC 32 UK Met, ExeterApril 4-8, 2011 • WCRP Mission and Objectives • Summary of JSC 31 • Global Framework for Climate Services • ICSU Visioning Process • Key Activities in 2010 • Expectations/Outcomes from JSC-32

3. JSC New Members: Graciela L. Binimelis de Raga, UNAM, Mexico Thomas Karl, NOAA, USA David Karoly, Monash, Australia Hong Liao, IAP, People Republic of China Pius Yanda, U. of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

4. Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programme supports climate-related decision making and adaptation planning by coordinating research required to improve • climate predictions and • understanding of human influence on climate “for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).

5. WCRP Implementation Plan The Interdisciplinary Nature of Climate Science Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate Cryosphere and Climate Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Water, Energy and Climate Meeting the Information Needs of Society Activities in Support of Key Deliverables Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction Sea-Level Variability and Change Climate Extremes Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Centennial Climate Change Projections Seasonal Climate Prediction Activities in Support of WCRP Integrating Themes Climate-Quality Data Sets and Analyses A New Generation of Climate/Earth System Models Next Generation of Climate Experts: Developing Capacity Regionally and Globally

6. World Climate Conference-3 WMO Congress recognized climate research was one of the five key elements of a Global Framework of Climate Services (GFCS) as identified by the WCC-3, and encouraged WCRP to continue its activities in support of the implementation of the GFCS, including: strengthening and mainstreaming research observations to serve as prototypes for future climate observing systems, and to do research on climate observations towards understanding of the climate system; developing climate prediction systems with lead times from seasons to centuries in a seamless manner; ensuring development of reliable high-resolution products needed for climate adaptation and risk management; promoting trans-disciplinary research to develop the necessary climate information for sector and region specific applications; facilitating flow of climate information user requirements to the research community and climate services sectors through user feedback; contributing to the training and development of highly-skilled talent to undertake climate research, operational prediction, and communication, particularly in the developing regions/countries.

7. High Level Task Force Develop the components of GFCS Develop options for governance Outline a plan for implementation

8. Components of the Framework 8

9. Global, Regional, National Levels 9

10. Proposed Governance Options

11. ICSU Visioning & Grand Challenges ICSU Goal: to engage the scientific community to explore options and to propose implementation steps for a holistic strategy on the Earth system research. This strategy will both encourage scientific innovation and address policy needs

12. ICSU Grand Challenges

13. Conference Objective Strengthen and enhance the international framework under GCOS, GOOS, WCRP, IGBP and supporting regional and national frameworks for sustained world ocean observing and information systems supporting the needs of society about ocean weather, climate, ecosystems, carbon and chemistry OceanObs 2009 Conference “Ocean Information for society: sustaining the benefits, realizing the potential”

14. Future Direction: Post-2013 • Long-Term Strategy: New WCRP themes/structure to promote/facilitate: • Research on frontiers of climate/Earth system • The need for & use of climate information, products & services • Regional climate prediction as a separate theme or fitted better within a processes/modelling theme or an applications/impacts theme? • What’s the role, nature, duration of cross-cutting activities? • How to ensure societal needs are met and there is effective and efficient engagement with boundary organizations and stakeholders? • How to ensure continued engagement of climate research community, i.e. scientists, sponsors, project offices, etc., in any new theme/structure?

15. Future Functions WCRP should maintain the rigor of its science and remain focused on core physical science (across the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere), addressing new science areas in partnerships with others - don’t drop key issues but maintain freedom to operate The function of WCRP should be to provide the science that underpins understanding and predicting of climate leadingto societal benefits. Communication and capacity building are also key issue. An emerging demand is a need to move to regional scales while from a science perspective recognize the importance of getting the global scales right. WCRP needs to have the capability to enable climate prediction from seasonal to century and global to local scales.

16. Future Structure • A program built upon a limited number of Core Project(s) to describe the essential elements of the Earth/climate system, and structure WCRP activities along the Earth/climate system themes, e.g. ocean-atmosphere, land-atmosphere, troposphere-stratosphere, cryosphere. • Rebuild the panel/committee structure, as necessary with an eye on the matrix structure (methodologies, interactions). • Crosscuts are essential to address the important science issues; they may have limited lifetime.

17. Deliberation • JSC focus on four major enabling themes to underpin scientific exploration and climate information delivery and applications: • Observation and Analysis • Process understanding • Modeling development, projections and prediction • Climate Information and Application

18. WCRP Function/Structure Post-2013 • The WCRP will be based on four fundamental interactions of the Earth/climate system: • Ocean-atmosphere • Land-atmosphere • Stratosphere-troposphere • Cryospheric WCRP Overarching/Unifying themes: Observation and Analysis Process understanding Modeling development, projections and prediction Climate Information and Application

19. Major Outcomes of JSC-31 WCRP Visioning: Long-term functions and conceptual structure of the WCRP Role of climate research, in particular, WCRP, within the Global Framework for Climate Services

20. WCRP JSC-31 Anatoly, TurkeyFebruary 15-19, 2010 • WCRP Visioning: Long-term functions/structure • Partners • What do you require of the WCRP to support your programme goals, areas of partnership wrt to climate science and services • Climate Services, Intergovernmental and National presentations • Present plans and what is needed from research community • Joint Day with 15th session of WMO Commission on Climatology (CCl)

21. Key Activities in 2010 • Modelling Council Meeting • Observation Council transition • WCRP role in climate services • ICSU Visioning • Polar Predictability Workshop • CORDEX Workshops • Drought & Extremes Workshops • WCRP OSC Planning

22. WCRP Modelling Coordination Meeting • The purpose of this meeting was to follow up on the recommendations of the World Modelling Summit, and actions resulting from the JSC meeting in Antalya, Turkey, on the subject of modelling. • The JSC discussed at length the formation of a WCRP Modelling Council in the context of WCRP visioning and future direction to carry out the following functions: • Promoting confrontation of models with observations and results of process studies; • Promoting collaboration amongst various climate science communities (includes numerical weather prediction (NWP), seasonal to interannual prediction,and climate projection communities as well as those dealing with biogeochemistry, air quality, terrestrial ecology, etc.); • Promoting application of models to problems of societal relevance, quantifying uncertainties and making sure they are well communicated and understood; • Promoting the model development and improvements.

23. Role of WCRP Research in Climate Services, Task Team Chair Greg Flato Coming out of last year's JSC meeting, one of the action items was to develop the WCRP position on research in support of climate services. Charge: to form a sub-set of the JSC and some of the Project co-chairs to follow up on discussions/deliberations at the JSC, our latest input to the GFCS High Level Task Team, and to develop further the role of WCRP Research in Climate Services. Topics for consideration: What are the envisioned contributions of WCRP to the Framework for Climate Services?What are the potential strategies/approaches for development and sharing of the climate knowledge and resulting from WCRP and its affiliate Projects with potential partners?Who are the potential partners external to WCRP?What role WCRP can and should play in facilitating and promoting best practices in development and dissemination of reliable climate information? (Implicit in this request is consideration of what we should not be doing?.) How should WCRP best organize itself in this regard?

24. Transition Plan from WOAP to a WCRP Data Council Sarah Gille, Chair from JSCMike Manton, WOAP Chair Mike Bosilovich, Re-analysisAdrian Simmons, GCOS Toshio Koike WCRP Info SystemKarl Taylor, CLIVAR Chris Kummerow, GEWEXColin Jones or CORDEX rep. Veronika Eyring, Modeling Council MeetingJeff Key, CliC Michaela Haegglin, SPARCNorm McFarlane, Executive Sec. Charge: Identify WCRP functions in coordinating research on observations and new observations required for climate research, especially for process understanding and model development and evaluation. Identify WCRP functions in coordinating the development, stewardship and dissemination of climate information resulting from its research, modeling and analysis activities. Develop a framework for coordination an integration of pan-WCRP observations, analysis and information management activities identified above; Recommend how the proposed framework should be organized and supported within WCRP in a manner that is complimentary and value added to the activities of Projects and sister programmes (e.g. GCOS, CEOS, GEOSS, WIS, etc.).Apps and obs

25. WCRP JSC 32 AgendaUK Met Office, Exeter, April 4-8, 2011 Expectations and Outcomes Define the transition/evolution of the core projects over the next 12 months Define the role of the OSC and its outcome in finalizing the future functions and structure of the WCRP

26. JSC 32 outcomes Modelling Council Approved Earth System prediction task team w/IGBP,WWRP,etc Data Council Approved– TOR was developed WG on Regional climate science & info formed Flato to lead a team to define scope and charter Cross-cut on Communication w/IOC Sustained Ocean Obs Task Team – Identify WCRP role after release of their report

27. JSC 32 outcomes Surface flux action plan to be developed WOAP to lead w/CLIVAR, GEWEX and others Present outline to SOLAS SSC in May 2011 Extremes – unpack to specific topics for further action, e.g. droughts Drought workshop – JSC endorsed workshop recommendations Rio+20 – Chairs & Directors to develop WCRP position and participation

28. JSC-32 Outcomes – CLIVAR Discuss and develop future priorities for ocean-climate component of WCRP strategy Re-examine sub-structure of CLIVAR of future; present to JSC following OSC Name change – consult community, especially early career scientists WGSIP – sea-ice community participation with CliC WGCM & WGSIP – engage core Projects in analyses of modes of climate variability, especially non-stationary, using CMIP5 results African monsoons – CLIVAR & GEWEX to develop strategy using CORDEX as a model/framework Partnership plan with Space Agencies (e.g. ESA) SSG Membership Nomination & Executive Committee Mtg.

29. See You in Denver! WCRP Open Science Conference 24-28 October 2011 Denver, Colorado, USA http://conference2011.wcrp-climate.org Promoting, Facilitating and Coordinating Climate Research in Service to Society