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Addressing non-CO 2 effects of aviation

Addressing non-CO 2 effects of aviation. Volker Grewe DLR-Institute for Atmospheric Physics TU Delft, Chair for Climate Effects of Aviation ECATS Vice-Chair. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation. Air traffic emissions at cruise.

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Addressing non-CO 2 effects of aviation

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  1. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Addressing non-CO2 effects of aviation Volker Grewe DLR-Institute forAtmosphericPhysics TU Delft, ChairforClimateEffectsof Aviation ECATS Vice-Chair

  2. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Air traffic emissions at cruise IPCC (1999)

  3. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Climateimpacts via non-CO2effects Air chemistry ozone methane IPCC (1999) Contrails Aerosols andeffects on clouds Popovicheva et al. (2004)

  4. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Atmospheric effects of aviation CO2 H2O NOx VOC, CO SO2 Particles Emissions Clouds CO2 H2O CH4 O3 Contrails Particles Changes in atmospheric composition Direct aerosol effect Climate forcings Direct greenhouse gases Indirect greenhouse gases Clouds Climate change

  5. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation RadiativeForcing in 2005 fromhistoricalaviationemission Carbon Dioxide, NOxemissions, andcontrailcirrusaremaincontributorstoaviationinduced RF. Level of Scientific Understanding (LoSU) variesbetween individual effects Grewe et al. (2017) Data arebased on Lee et al (2009) with update fromvariousmorerecentpublications

  6. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Contrailsand Contrail-Cirrus Interaction Line-shaped Contrails

  7. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation How do contrails form? Formation depends on • Atmospheric condition Temperature/Humidity • Too dry/warm  No contrails • Too humid/cold  Cirrus already exists humid Cirrus noclouds dry cold warm

  8. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Contrail Dimension also depends on aircraft type (weightbasicallycontrollsthestrenghtofvortex Ice crystal number concentrations A380 CRJ Unterstraßer et al., 2014

  9. Pressure [hPa] Latitude > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Where can contrails form? Potential contrail coverage = Maximum coverage by contrails 18 km 12 km 5 km Isolines: Temperature [K] Marquart et al., 2002

  10. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Chemistry Air chemistry Producesozone Destroysmethane

  11. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Chemical regimes for methane loss Ozone O3+hv O+O2 O+H2O 2 OH NOx • Methaneloss Methane NO+HO2NO2+OH • Reducedozoneproduction • Stratosphericwatervapour • Ozoneproduction • Methaneloss Grewe et al. (2017)

  12. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Aerosols impact on cloudsis still uncertain ! • Two potential effectsareidentified • Impact on iceclouds (cirrus) • Impact on lowleveltropicalclouds • All resultsdepend on the initial characteristicsofsootandsulphuremissions: • Additional cirrusformsonlyiftheemittedsoothastheabilitytoactasgoodicenucleii. • Low levelcloudsarealteredbysulphatedropletonlyifthefuelcontainsenoughsulphurand a large numberofverysmallparticlesareemitted. • Botheffects, iftheyoccur, potentially cool! • Currentlypoorunderstanding!

  13. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Aviation´simpact on global mean 2m-temperature • Main contributors : • CO2 • Contrails • NOx (O3and CH4) ~0.03 K von 0.7 K  5% PMO=„Primary modeozone“ Resultsfromless CH4 less HO2 less O3production Air trafficcontributestoclimatechangebyroughly 5%.

  14. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Mitigatingtheclimateimpactofaviation: Somerecentstudies • TechnologicalMeasures: • Fuel efficiency • Emission reduction • Alternative fuels • OperationalMeasures: • Avoiding climate sensitive regions • Intermediate Stop Operations • Climate restricted airspaces • EconomicalMeasures • Market-Based Measures • Carbon off-setting • Climate – Charged Areas

  15. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation DLR-Project CATS: ClimateCompatible Air Transport System Focus on a long-range aircraft =AirClim Koch et al., 2011 Dahlmann et al. 2016

  16. DLR.de • Chart 16 > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation CATS-optimisationapproach • Variation of initial cruise altitudeandspeed • Optimal relation between costs and climate • Definition of new design point • Optimisation of the new aircraft for this new design point Koch, 2013

  17. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation A330: Potential of a climatechangereduction: CATS-results Variation in speed an cruise altitude 30% Reduction in climatechange with 5% increase in costs 64% Reduction in climatechange with 32% increase in costs (w/o adaptionofaircraft) (Koch et al., 2011; Dahlmann et al, 2016) (Dahlmann, 2012)

  18. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation CATS Final results Cumulative potential for all routes operated by redesigned A/C Max Mach 0.775 / Max Altitude 10500m Redesigned A/C considerably improves climate impact mitigation potential and cost penalty Koch (2012)

  19. B A > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Different weathersituations: Evolution of aircraft NOx Weather type #3 "Weakand tiltedjet" Whathappens if an aircraft emits NOx at location A compared to location B?

  20. Evolution of O3 [ppt] following a NOx pulse A: 250hPa, 40°N, 60°W, 12 UTC B: 250hPa, 40°N, 30°W, 12 UTC > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Pressure [hPa] Change in NOx and Ozone mass EMAC-Symposium 14.-16. Februar 2012

  21. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Avoidingclimate sensitive regions: The approach Traffic scenario: Roughly 800 North AtlanticFlights Respresentativeweathersituations Climatologybased on Irvine et al. (2013) Climate-Change Functions Contrails, O3, CH4, H2O, CO2 Traffic optimisation: Withrespettocostsandclimate

  22. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Climatologybased on 8 representativeweatherpattern • Very flat Pareto-Front  Large benefits at low costs • Market based measures would enable climate optimised routing, if non-CO2 effects were taken into account Grewe et al. (2017)

  23. DLR.de • Chart 23 > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Air trafficmanagementforenvironment: SESAR/H2020-Project ATM4E SWIM Currentsituation Matthes et al. (2017) ATM4E Overview > Sigrun Matthes, DLR > Intermediate Review, 18 May 2017

  24. DLR.de • Chart 24 > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Air trafficmanagementforenvironment: SESAR/H2020-Project ATM4E SWIM Contributionof ATM4E Matthes et al. (2017) ATM4E Overview > Sigrun Matthes, DLR > Intermediate Review, 18 May 2017

  25. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Waystoinclude non-CO2-effetcs Accounting for non CO2-effects on a flight-by-flightbasis -> Conversioninto eq.CO2. Simple Factor Simple factor: Not recommended! Distance/Latitude: Hassomeatmosphericresponsesincluded Altitude: Importantfactor! Clim-CCF: Quitegood in a climatologicalmanner, e.g. foraircraft design, … Weather-CCF: Best option, still requiressignificantdevelopments Depending on Distance Depending on Latitude Depending on Altitude ClimatologicalClimate-Change Functions Data, Effort Benefit Weather-relatedClimate-Change Functions Work in progress: Dahlmann et al., Niklass et al.

  26. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Howtouseequivalent CO2? • Definition: • The amountof CO2-emission, whichleadstothe same climatechangeastheemissionof 1 kg oftheregarded non-CO2emission. Sumof all CO2 Equivalents Equivalent CO2 Emission CO2 Emission

  27. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Meanclimateimpact per flowndistancefor individual components on thebasisofonelong-range aircraft H2O CO2 Contrails 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.25 0.15 0.1 NOx O3 CH4 0.3 -0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.8 Different colorcoding ! Dahlmann et al. in prep

  28. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation CO2-Equivalents for individual componentsforonelongrangeaircraft = CO2 H2O Contrails 3 1 NOx=O3+CH4+PMO O3 CH4 2.5 -5 -2 5 Different colorcoding ! Dahlmann et al. in prep

  29. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Examplesfor CO2Equivalents • Distancedependingeq. CO2 forNOx • Long-range 2-aisle aircraft • with a typlicalflightpattern (2006) • otheraircraftmightlook different • Dahlmann et al. (in prep) CO2Equivalent ForNOxEmissions Distance 103 km • NOx–OzoneClimate Change Function • Such mapsmightbepartoftheweather-forecasts • Multipliedwithemissionsalong a flighttrackandaccumulated → equivalent CO2 Grewe et al. (2014)

  30. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Other waystoinclude non-CO2-effetcs Accounting for non CO2-effects on a flight-by-flightbasis → Conversioninto eq.CO2. Simple Factor • Non-CO2effectsshow a complexpicture • Various possibilities to extract equivalents for non-CO2-effects • Requirements: • Allowforfuturetechnologicaladvancements • Regional different effects • Altitudeeffects • Flight distance • Tradeoffbetweenaccuracyandeffort Depending on Distance Depending on Latitude Depending on Altitude ClimatologicalClimate-Change Functions Data, Effort Benefit Weather-relatedClimate-Change Functions Work in progress: Dahlmann et al., Niklass et al.

  31. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Whyare non-CO2-effects important? • Large CO2emissionreduction • Large increase in Non-CO2effects Future withcurrenttechnology CORSIA • Small change in temperaturebecauseof • CO2accumulation • Large increase in Non-CO2effects Reducing Non-CO2effectsoffer a possibilitytoreduceaviation‘sclimateimpact

  32. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Summary • Enhanced knowledge on the processes related to aviation emissions. • More than 50% of the climate impact from aviation due to non-CO2 effects. • Uncertainties remain, but may be better understood. • This allows a zooming in: • From effects of global aviation to effects of regional emissions • From global climate change to regional temperature changes • More mitigation studies, which include non-CO2 effects. • Climate-sensitive areas could substantially reduce the climate impact of aviation at low cost increase. • Outlook: Forecasting of non-CO2 effects on a daily basis.

  33. Thank you for your attention Thank you for your attention

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