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Deborah Gordon Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace September 24, 2012

POLICY PRIORITIES FOR ADVANCING THE U.S. ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET. Deborah Gordon Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace September 24, 2012. Why the Urgency?. Forces Promoting and Suppressing PEVs are Building. Promises

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Deborah Gordon Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace September 24, 2012

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  1. POLICY PRIORITIES FOR ADVANCING THE U.S. ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET Deborah Gordon Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace September 24, 2012

  2. Why the Urgency? Forces Promoting and Suppressing PEVs are Building • Promises • Low natural gas prices are creating alternative to high-carbon, coal-fired electricity generation • Climate regulations could promote shift to cleaner power • Uncertain gasoline prices are building consumer interest in alternatives • Vehicle fuel economy standards are facilitated by vehicle electrification • Pitfalls • New petroleum resources are emerging worldwide • Renewed investments in oil-fueled transportation are locking in

  3. Key Moment to Determine Future Carbon Balance of Liquid and Alternative Fuels • Conventional oil is expected to plateau…but oil will not run out • Economics and technology are redefining liquid hydrocarbon resources • Not all oils are created equal • The heavier the oil, the higher its imbedded and process carbon Source: ExxonMobil, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, 2012

  4. BAU Oil Industry Projections to 2030 Where Does Vehicle Electrification Fit In?

  5. Market-driven Unconventional Oil Upswing • Higher oil prices will expand the volumes and types of oils in the marketplace • Higher gasoline prices may not be sufficient to spur PEVs $101: 2011 Avg. World Oil Price

  6. U.S. Electric Vehicle Projected Competitiveness

  7. Charging Onward… FREEWAY The “Freeway” scenario is based on pure market forces prevailing to create global competition in the future light-duty vehicle fleet TOLLWAY The “Tollway” scenario is based on a public policy-drivers that promote technological advances, infrastructure development, and market uptake Next forty years of potential developments in global transport fuels and technology systems on the basis of two distinct scenarios: with durable public policies or without Source: World Energy Council, Global Transport Scenarios 2050

  8. How Do We Get There?

  9. Benchmarking Low-Carbon PEV States

  10. Cultivating PEV Vanguard Cities

  11. PEV Policy Priorities • Concerted efforts needed to move PEVs from emerging status to self-sustaining markets • Federal policies necessary but not sufficient • State and local policies necessary to expand PEVs • Must engage motorists, local decision makers, and auto dealers

  12. Thank you! Deborah Gordon Senior Associate Energy & Climate Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Website: http://carnegieendowment.org Email: dgordon@ceip.org Phone: (202) 957-8849 (434) 960-5407 FAX: (208) 330-1212

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