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Achievements of AR4 WG3 – a personal view

IPCC AR4 WG3 2007 and The Copenhagen Scientific Congress 2009: achievements, revealed gaps and opportunities.

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Achievements of AR4 WG3 – a personal view

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  1. IPCC AR4 WG3 2007 andThe Copenhagen Scientific Congress 2009: achievements, revealed gaps and opportunities Terry Barker, AR4 IPCC Coordinating Lead Author,University of Cambridge, UKpresentation to “ITERREG Conference on Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaptation”Rotterdam, October 8-9, 2009

  2. Achievements of AR4 WG3 – a personal view • The Establishment of the concepts of mitigation potentials and the price of carbon • Assessment of economic potentials for mitigation to 2030 • Review of literature on induced technological change and the costs of climate stabilization (and benefits) Acknowledgements The text and figures in the presentation come from the WG III Summary for Policy Makers, unless otherwise stated. The comments are my own.

  3. Achievements of the Copenhagen Scientific CongressMarch 2009 – a personal view • Stronger evidence on the likelihood of higher sea-level rise in the 21stC of 1 metre +- 0.5 metre • Evidence of more vulnerability of societies and ecosystems to climate change even at 2°C above pre-industrial • More justification of stronger GHG reduction targets needed to avoid dangerous climate change • GHG below 1990 levels 40% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 required for the 2°C target • GHG mitigation is associated with other benefits to the environment and sociaty, especially cleaner air

  4. AR4 WG3:revealed research gaps • No integration of large-scale or even intermediate- scale climate models and E3 models • Insufficient studies of stringent mitigation (<450ppmv CO2-eq) to draw reliable conclusions • Inadequate treatment of the risks of climate change, adaptation and mitigation • Conversion of risk to certainty-equivalence in many models • Lack of treatment of robustness in results to changes in the baseline, e.g. for a global depression • No integration of air-pollution-reduction and other co-benefits, such as energy security and employment-creation, into the integrated modelling of mitigation policies

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