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Back-of-envelope balancing reserve adequacy check for draft 6 th Plan Portfolio

Back-of-envelope balancing reserve adequacy check for draft 6 th Plan Portfolio. Base on maximum operating wind capacity at end of planning period Existing wind capacity (Operating + Under construction) Maximum buildout of wind in draft portfolio Estimate balancing reserve requirement

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Back-of-envelope balancing reserve adequacy check for draft 6 th Plan Portfolio

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  1. Back-of-envelope balancing reserve adequacy check for draft 6th Plan Portfolio • Base on maximum operating wind capacity at end of planning period • Existing wind capacity (Operating + Under construction) • Maximum buildout of wind in draft portfolio • Estimate balancing reserve requirement • Estimated growth in incremental balancing reserve requirement (MW rapid-response capacity/MW wind as percent of load) • BPA needs assessment • Extend to region • Adjust down by estimated impact of improved forecasting. • Estimate supply of rapid-response capacity • Assume BPA capability is representative for large hydro • + allowance for non-federal large hydro • + allowance for RR capability of existing thermal units (CC, GT, Coal?? - PGE work) • + allowance for RR capability of new thermal units in portfolio at max wind buildout.

  2. Issues • So simple as to be worse than nothing? • If so, is there a better approach (Nothing not an option) • How should we view California acquisitions (larger issue)

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