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Reserve Adequacy Assessment January 14, 2004

Reserve Adequacy Assessment January 14, 2004. Joseph Mercer Supervisor ISO-NE Operations Forecast. Current RAA Commitment. Initial RAA – Commit to meet Forecast Demand plus 10 Min Reserve plus 30 Min Reserve plus Replacement Reserve plus surplus of 400 MW w/SAR, 700 MW w/o SAR.

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Reserve Adequacy Assessment January 14, 2004

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  1. Reserve Adequacy AssessmentJanuary 14, 2004 Joseph Mercer Supervisor ISO-NE Operations Forecast

  2. Current RAA Commitment • Initial RAA – Commit to meet • Forecast Demand plus 10 Min Reserve plus 30 Min Reserve plus Replacement Reserve plus surplus of 400 MW w/SAR, 700 MW w/o SAR. • RAA Updates – Commit to meet • After morning generator start-up cycle, (typically 0800), target surplus is reduced to 0 MW. • Commitment Objective - minimize following costs: • Generator Start-up, No load and cost to operate at EcMin • All generator start-up orders (DAM or RAA) issued/verified by ISO by 2200

  3. Cancelled Start-Ups • March 1, 2003 – August 31, 2003 • ISO-NE cancelled start-ups on 21 days • Cost of cancellations ($17,173) • September 1, 2003 – December 31, 2003 • ISO-NE cancelled start-ups on 30 days • Cost of cancellations ($17,252)

  4. “Just in Time” Commitment • Initial RAA and updates • Capacity requirements are same as current practice • Commitment Objective • Commit units with shorter start-up and notification times (<6 hrs) • Generator with longer times will not be committed, unless there is insufficient capacity available from shorter lead time units. • Generator Start-up, No load and cost to operate at EcMin • DAM generator start-ups verified by 2200 • If applicable, DAM scheduled units should call in start-up profile to the Forecast Office during Re-Offer period • RAA start-ups issued “Just in Time” to meet generator submitted Notification and Start Times. • Have identified software changes, new reports, affected processes.

  5. “JIT Pros and Cons Pros • Reduce ISO-NE intervention in the Energy Market by delaying RAA commitment decisions until a few hours prior to real-time peak • Reduce or eliminate canceled start-up and related costs • Provide price volatility in Real-time when short lead time units are order on-line. • Reward generators for providing flexible operating characteristics. • Reduce calls to marginal generators (Order on, then cancel) Cons • JIT commitment may not always meet the current Commitment Objective should the units be called to operate in Real-time. • May need changes to Manual 11

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