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Adequate Yearly Progress Updates

Adequate Yearly Progress Updates. Michigan Department of Education. NCLB Accountability Adequate Yearly Progress. Requires a Single State Accountability System Goal – 100% Proficiency at the end of 12 Years

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Adequate Yearly Progress Updates

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  1. Adequate Yearly Progress Updates Michigan Department of Education

  2. NCLB AccountabilityAdequate Yearly Progress • Requires a Single State Accountability System • Goal – 100% Proficiency at the end of 12 Years • States set a starting point at or above a federal minimum and set objectives for improvement

  3. Adequate Yearly Progress Must meet all of the following for the district, school and subgroup: • Achievement • Meet state objective or safe harbor • Must meet in both Math and English Language Arts • 95% tested • Must meet in both math and English Language Arts • Additional Academic Indicator • Graduation Rate – high schools • Attendance – elementary and middle schools

  4. Michigan AYP Targets

  5. English Language Arts AYP Goals Over 12 Years

  6. Math AYP Goals Over 12 Years

  7. 50 “cells” for AYP

  8. Plans for 2005 AYP • Same structure and format as 2004 Report Card • Timeline for 2005 Report Card • Indicators data collection in April-May • Graduation Rates – EDN open now • Appeals start early June • Report Cards released for all schools in August • Same timeline for all schools and district AYP • Retooled Indicators of School Performance for 2006 Report Card

  9. Plans for 2005 AYP (cont.) • Nonstandard accommodations will not count as participating for AYP • Graduation Rate based on the current formula – data collection window open • AYP state objective goes up

  10. Plans for 2005 AYP (cont.) • Minimum n • Based on 1% of enrollment where enrollment is over 3,000 • Alternate Assessments – 1% Rule • count Phase 1 proficient FIRST • MDE applied for federal approval for more than 1% • New Federal Flexibility – Waiting for Guidance

  11. Graduation Rates • CEPI is NOW accepting data for 2003-2004 graduation rates • The Pupil Headcount Report correction and submission window is: • March 1, 2004 through May 16, 2004 • These graduation rates will be used for AYP on the 2005 Report Card • No report card appeals will be accepted on graduation rates • It is planned that the 2004-05 graduation rates will come directly from SRSD.

  12. AYP ReliabilityMargin of Error • Sources of Error • Measurement Error • Would the student score the same if tested again? • Standard Error of Measurement • Sampling Error • Does the sample of students tested reflect the whole school? • Standard Error of Proportion with Finite Sampling Error Correction

  13. Michigan AYP Reliability Proposal

  14. AYP Reliability Example

  15. Preview of 2005-06 AYP • 1st year of 3-8 assessment • Will new AYP objectives be needed? • An impact analysis will be needed • A new objective will have only 9 years to 100% proficiency • AYP – Use all scores for a school • Cannot ignore valid scores • Group size rule may be modified • Full Academic Year rule may be modified • How will feeder reports be used for accountability?

  16. School AYP Summary2003 and 2004

  17. AYP by Phase 2003 and 2004

  18. District AYP 2004

  19. Student Groups and AYP • AYP is a status model with a moving bar • It is not necessary to for the school or group to make improvement each year • A school or district can have an achievement gap and still make AYP

  20. Student Groups for AYP • Racial/Ethnic Groups • Black or African American • American Indian or Alaska Native • Asian, Hawaiian Native, or Pacific Islander • Hispanic or Latino • White • Multi-racial or other ethnicity • Limited English Proficient • Special Education • Economically Disadvantaged

  21. Additional Student Groups for NCLB Report Card • Gender • Migratory Status

  22. Number of Michigan Schools Not Making AYP by Group 2004

  23. Tips for Group Comparisons • Compare Group to Group – NOT Group to Whole • Continuous comparison vs. Categorical Comparison • Percent Proficient vs. scale score distribution • Is the comparison reliable? • Number tested? • Is the difference within the confidence interval? • Protect Confidentiality

  24. Data Visualization • Grouped Bar Chart • Error Bars • Histogram • Box and Whiskers • Cumulative Distribution Frequency

  25. School DataGrade 8 Mathematics 2004

  26. Gender Bar Chart

  27. Racial/Ethnic Bar Chart

  28. Gender Error Bars

  29. Racial/Ethnic Error Bars

  30. Gender Histograms

  31. Racial/Ethnic Histograms

  32. Gender Box & Whiskers

  33. Racial/Ethnic Box & Whiskers

  34. Gender CDF

  35. Racial/Ethnic CDF

  36. Contact Information Paul Bielawski Office of Educational Assessment and Accountability Michigan Department of Education PO Box 30008 Lansing, MI 48909 (517) 335-5784 bielawp@michigan.gov

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