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The Future of US Foreign Policy. And how Obama has dealt with it. War Number One. Getting Out: 2/09 Plan. Combat Operations Officially End: 9/10/10. War Number Two: Afghanistan. December 2009: Additional 33,000 troops Withdrawal in 2014. The New War. Drone Strikes. May 1, 2011.
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The Future of US Foreign Policy And how Obama has dealt with it
War Number One Getting Out: 2/09 Plan Combat Operations Officially End: 9/10/10
War Number Two: Afghanistan • December 2009: Additional 33,000 troops • Withdrawal in 2014
The New War Drone Strikes
May 1, 2011 • Bin-Laden killed
Middle East Turmoil Balancing US interests • counterterrorism • human rights and democracy • OIL • alliance with Israel
Policies • Encouraging Egyptian military to oust Mubarak • Trying to salvage Yemeni and Bahraini leaders, but encouraging them to start transition as protests continue • Bombing Libya • Diplomacy with Syria: many implications • Saudi Arabia: silence
Obama’s Foreign PolicyUS National Security Strategy May 2010 Threats US Role Economic renewal at home Expanding markets Economic Stability: G-20 Promote US values “Underwrite global security” “Shaping international order” Engagement China and Russia within a stable international order Strengthening Alliances • Non-state Actors: The “dark side” of globalization • Al-Qaeda • WMD proliferation • Non-Democratic Regimes • Economic Instability • Cyber attacks • Afghanistan/Pakistan • Middle East Instability • New balance of power in Asia (rise of China)
Trends and Transformations? • Unipolarity: Can it Last • New Cold War • Multipolarity • Leadership, not Dominance • Middle Power Challenges • Globalization: Interdependence • Decline of Nation-State Power • Uncertainties
1. Unipolarity • Can it Last? • It never has before
US Wealth See World Bank: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf
Global Military Expenditures Country Military spending Budget Period World $1100 billion 2004 est. United States $623 billion FY08 Rest-of-World $500 billion 2004 est. China $65.0 billion 2004 Russia $50.0 billion France $45.0 billion 2005 United Kingdom $42.8 billion 2005 est. Japan $41.75 billion 2007 Germany $35.1 billion 2003 Italy $28.2 billion 2003 South Korea $21.1 billion 2003 est. India $19.0 billion 2005 est. Saudi Arabia $18.0 billion 2005 est. Australia $16.9 billion 2006 North Korea $5.0 billion FY02 Iran $4.3 billion 2003 est. From: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htm
2. New Cold War • One nation catches up to the US • Rising Challenger • Declining hegemon
US vs. China • President Obama and President Hu
Great Power Challenges • Rival Power • Ideology • One-Party State vs. Liberal Democracy
China sees Hegemony Encirclement? (US, Japan, S. Korea, India)
3. Multipolarity • Many nations catch up to the US • The US falls back to the pack
A Multipolar System US Russia Japan EU, Brazil ChinaIndia
Or Another Bipolar System USIndiaRussiaChina
Sending a Message? Obama Administration’s first state dinner • Michelle Obama and Indian PM Singh
Trips to Asia 2009 2010
5. Middle Power Challenges • Iranian power
6. Globalization: Interdependence: conflict won’t become war
7. Decline of Nation-State Power • The Nation-State System evolves • Governments weaken • Financial Flows that governments can’t control • Organizations that governments can’t control or defend themselves against
Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital Flows (from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region, 2002,http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/265/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=default.asp
21st Century Challenges Global Terrorism: 9/11 Regional Instability: al-Shabab in Somalia
Transnational Organized Crime:Mexico vs. Drug Cartels source:http://www.utexas.edu/international/ioc/safety_updates.html
8. Uncertainties • Climate Change • Energy • Food • Population • Over-urbanization • Migration • And…