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2013 Hurricane Outlook

2013 Hurricane Outlook. Mark Wiley Emergency Response Meteorologist National Weather Service, Southern Region HQs Regional Operations Center Fort Worth, TX mark.wiley@noaa.gov. 2013 Hurricane Outlook.

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2013 Hurricane Outlook

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  1. 2013 Hurricane Outlook Mark Wiley Emergency Response Meteorologist National Weather Service, Southern Region HQs Regional Operations Center Fort Worth, TX mark.wiley@noaa.gov

  2. 2013 Hurricane Outlook • Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. • A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995 • Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea • El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

  3. Expected Conditions During the 2013 Hurricane Season

  4. Sea-Surface Temp Anomalies1 Jun • Water temps in the main development region running well above normal • As much as three degrees above normal off the African coast. Main Development Region

  5. Sea-Surface Temp Anomalies • With all the cold fronts pushing into the Gulf of Mexico this spring, water temperatures were significantly cooler than normal into early May. • Have warmed to near normal and even above normal. May 9th 1 June

  6. Sea-Surface Temps1 Jun 26.7 C=80 F

  7. Where Will Storms Strike? • NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook is NOT a hurricane landfall forecast; it does not predict how many storms will hit land or where a storm will strike ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

  8. 2011 Tropical Season • 2011 was a very active year with 19 named storms including 4 major hurricanes. • But little activity occurred in the Gulf of Mexico.

  9. 2002 Tropical Season • On the other hand 2002 was a below normal year with only 4 hurricanes • One of them reached major hurricane status in the Gulf (Lili).

  10. Changes For This Year • New for this hurricane season are improvements to forecast models, data gathering, and the National Hurricane Center communication procedure for post-tropical cyclones. • In July, NOAA plans to bring online a • new supercomputer that will run an • upgraded Hurricane Weather Research • and Forecasting (HWRF) model that • provides significantly enhanced • depiction of storm structure and • improved storm intensity forecast • guidance.

  11. “Post-Tropical” Changes • Changes brought about as a result of the confusion brought about from Sandy going from tropical to extra-tropical (post-tropical) • The National Weather Service has modified the tropical cyclone watch and warning definitions to allow them to be used after a tropical cyclone has become post-tropical. • A related change allows the NHC to optionally continue issuing advisory products after a tropical cyclone becomes post-tropical, in those cases when the system continues to pose a significant threat to life and property, and when the transfer of responsibility to another office would result in an unacceptable discontinuity in service. • Local NWS WFOs would continue to issue Hurricane Local Statements until NHC advisories were discontinued. • The word “Extra-tropical” will no longer be used in NHC text, will be replaced “Post-tropical” wording

  12. Changes to the Tropical Weather Outlook • NHC is planning to extend the time covered by the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) from 48 hours to 5 days in July or August in the text product, but not the graphic

  13. SLOSH • Effective with the 2013 hurricane season, the NWS/NHC will no longer provide output from individual runs of the Sea, Lake, and Overland Flooding from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model during tropical cyclones. • Individual “deterministic” SLOSH runs often conflict with official NWS forecasts for storm surge, and could be interpreted as being inconsistent with evacuation decisions from emergency managers. For several years, the NHC has been providing probabilistic storm surge products as part of a long-term, multiyear NWS effort to improve communications on storm surge. • Southern Region HQs/ROC continues to work with Dr. Gordon Wells of UT on the work of his team with the ADCIRC model • ADCIRC/SLOSH complement each other very well

  14. Probabilistic Storm Surge Forecasts • The NWS/NHC will be providing a suite of probabilistic storm surge products for 2013 that communicate inundation in terms of feet above ground level. • This information will be provided on an interactive Google Earth background

  15. Experimental Products(Note that the timeliness and accuracy of these products cannot be guaranteed) • 1) Live video/audio feed of top-of-the-hour hurricane briefings when the media pool is activated: http://www.imaphurricane.info/ • 2) NHC provides various advisory products in GIS format. Information on these products can be found at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/ • 3) In 2013, NHC will be working on potential enhancements to products and services. These planned in-house (non-public) experiments include • Extending tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts out to seven days from the current five-day period • Creation of track and intensity forecasts for disturbances with • a high chance of formation • Issuances of tropical cyclone watches and warnings prior to the formation of a cyclone.

  16. NHC on Social Media The NHC Facebook page is found at: http://www.facebook.com/US.NOAA.NationalHurricaneCenter.gov The NHC Director Dr. Richard Knabbis on Twitter, @NHCDirector. The NHC storm surge group can be followed on Twitter, @NHC_Surge. This account enhances storm surge forecasts by providing real-time reports and observations during an event (resources permitting) The National Hurricane Center is on Twitter @NHC_Atlantic (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea). Automated tweets are sent via these accounts whenever NHC issues: • A public advisory regarding a tropical cyclone (TCP) • A tropical cyclone update (TCU) Each tweet contains a link to access the corresponding product on the NHC website. NHC can also tweet a special message at any time.

  17. NHC on the Web National Hurricane Center: http://www.hurricanes.gov National Hurricane Center Product Description Document-A User’s Guide to Hurricane Product http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml#GTWO Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php Definition of NHC Track Forecast Cone: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml National Hurricane Center Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/US.NOAA.NationalHurricaneCenter.gov National Hurricane Center Twitter page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/twitter.shtml

  18. TDEM Hurricane Matrix (72 - 120hrs from landfall)

  19. TDEM Hurricane Matrix (48 - 72hrs from landfall)

  20. Threats from Tropical Storm XX Total Threat: 13 South Texas – 500,000 Cat 2 Storm

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