A Developmental Green Economy for Gauteng Professor Mark Swilling, Sustainability Institute

1. A Developmental Green Economy for Gauteng Professor Mark Swilling, Sustainability Institute School of Public Management and Planning Stellenbosch University South Africa

2. Material Flows – the missing factor Behrens, 2007

3. resource decoupling economic activity (GDP) impact decoupling resource use environmental impacts TIME Decoupling: resource & impact

4. relative decoupling economic activity (GDP) absolute decoupling resource use TIME resource use Decoupling: relative & absolute

7. Footprinting Green Economy = Materials: 6t/c CO2: 2.2 t/cap BAU = Materials: 8t/c CO2: 4.5 t/cap

8. Green Economy “There can be little doubt that the economy of the 21st century will be low-carbon. What has become clear is that the push toward decarbonisation will be one of the major drivers of global and national economic growth over the next decade. And the economies that embrace the green revolution earliest will reap the greatest economic rewards.” – PM Gordon Brown, Newsweek, 28 September 2009

9. “As leaders of the world’s major economies, we are working for a resilient, sustainable and green economy.” – G20 Pittsburgh 24-25 Sept 2009 "We have an opportunity over the decade ahead to shift the structure of our economy towards greater energy efficiency, and more responsible use of our natural resources and relevant resource-based knowledge and expertise. Our economic growth over the next decade and beyond cannot be built on the same principles and technologies, the same energy systems and the same transport modes, that we are familiar with today." - South African Finance Minister Trevor Manual, Budget speech, Parliament February 20th, 2008

10. Recent South African policy initiatives Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios/Copenhagen Commitments National Framework for Sustainable Development (towards NSSD) Renewable Energy White Paper Green Economy Strategy (‘green jobs’) Industrial Policy Action Plan National Water Resource Strategy Carbon Taxes

11. Gauteng’s Sustainability Challenges Food security Energy security Water supply/quality & sanitation Solid waste Mobility Settlement patterns Poverty & inequality Resource & energy intensive economy

12. Core logic Sustainability challenges will undermine growth & job creation Money will need to be spent on solutions anyway, but according to what paradigm? Hence: green economy approach about growth & jobs via investments that address resource constraints using sustainable technologies

15. Current agricultural employment: 30 000 jobs • Using available land conventionally: additional 28 000 jobs • Combining urban agriculture & available land via • a network of small farms: over 400 000 jobs • Key drivers: land reform + support + innovation • Key resource constraint: water

16. Energy: Solar Hot Water 95% of high/mid income HH – 1,2 m 50% of low income HH – 666 000 Current use: less than 0.1%, reliant on Chinese imports Removes 50%-60% of energy required by HH Generates carbon credits Industry poised to expand, labour intensive Could generate 6700 jobs, large-scale investments Subsidy required for low-income HHs Incentives/regulations to convert mid/high income HHs

17. Energy Efficiency Key concept: ‘nega-watt’ – costs less to use less than to produce more Proposed target: 15% of total energy use Investment: R7.5 billion pa, 10400 jobs Provincial budget: R10 pa Sectors: industrial, commercial, transport, residential Key sector leader: public buildings

18. Energy: CSP Key concept: costs of RE coming down, costs of fossil fuels going up (incl C taxes) CSP is best option: medium-tech/cost/local production/job intensive Target: 16% of total energy mix/1413 GW Result: ave price of electricity comes down R90 billion of new investment REFIT pays R2.10, Euros 40 million 1000 permanent jobs, 4000 construction jobs /a CSP plants in other Provinces, Gauteng as epic-centre

19. Water & Sanitation 98% of SA’s water allocated, crisis ahead Gauteng needs to grow by reducing by 15% Water gets pumped up to Gauteng, flows down polluted – other Provinces pay the price Massive water losses WWTWs overloaded, mismanaged No bulk water supply planning beyond 2013 Split responsibilities Gauteng to lead strategic planning initiative in partnership with Municipalities & Regional Units

20. Zero Waste Key concept: all outputs can be inputs Current: 5.7 m/t, growing to 6.5 m/t by 2020 Landfill costs double every 4 years Waste stream: 40% non-recyclable, 15% organics, 25% recyclables, 19% building rubble Waste to landfill can be reduced by 60% creating 19 400 jobs Separation at source, informal jobs, new industries that access reclaimed materials

21. Transport Key concept: switch from private car use to mass transit on scale 93% of all oil (petrol/diesel) used by private vehicles – 6.5 m litres/day – imported - outward flows of cash Shift from 5.4l/p/100Km (car) to 1.1 (taxi)/1.4 (bus) 15% saving of fuel means 1.1 m people switch to using the BRT 2400 BRT busses, 7200 jobs Subsidy: R340 m – less than other costs

22. What does BAU mean? Jobless growth - reliance on mature industries Limited opportunities for innovation – but innovation is the key to growth Resource constraints undermine future growth costing more to fix later Gauteng as a dirty industry/extractive industry node, dual labour market, locked into the global economy

23. GE - IS linkages GE mainly about the platform (infrastructure /support systems) IS mainly about economic activities that assume the platform Medium-tech light manufacturing - less energy & resource intensive √ Localisation focus – food, transport, basic consumer goods √ recycled materials as inputs for feeder industries – more needed IS wont work without the GE

24. Role of DED Facilitator – connecting stakeholders Enabler – internal alignment within Govt Investor – mainly in innovation, both technical & capabilities Gauteng as a ‘green economic region’ repositions it globally, stimulates innovation, generates new investments, creates platform of industrial strategy