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Does Energy Follow Form? Towards the Clean Energy City in Jinan, China

Does Energy Follow Form? Towards the Clean Energy City in Jinan, China. Christopher Zegras Assistant Professor, Transportation and Urban Planning Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, MIT. Neighborhood Design as a Solution Space?. Something new?. Life Cycle Analysis. Household.

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Does Energy Follow Form? Towards the Clean Energy City in Jinan, China

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  1. Does Energy Follow Form?Towards the Clean Energy Cityin Jinan, China Christopher Zegras Assistant Professor, Transportation and Urban Planning Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, MIT

  2. Neighborhood Design as a Solution Space? Something new?

  3. Life Cycle Analysis Household (2) Operational Energy (1)Embodied Energy Building (3)Travel Energy Streets, neighborhood Construction Use Phase Demolition

  4. Neighborhood Form Physical Structure Households Common Area Common Area Conditions Travel Conditions In-home Conditions Vertical Movement Job HVAC Lighting School Water Heating Parking Shopping Lighting Security Material and Construction Others Cooking Others Devices and Appliances Devices Vehicles Use Movement Use Travel Energy Use and GHG Emissions Operational Energy Use & GHG Emissions Embodied Energy Use & GHG Emissions “Moving” “Fixed”

  5. Multivariate Analytical Approach HH Appliance/Device Ownership (e.g, # vehicles) = f (HH Characteristics, Neighborhood Type & Location) Selection bias and endogeneity Operational and Travel Energy Use = f (# appliances/devices, HH characteristics, Neighborhood Type & Location)

  6. “Vector” representation e.g.: Density Diversity Design Relative Location But, these variables are, in reality, limited And, maybe the “whole > ΣParts”? How to “measure” the neighborhood? Typological Representation

  7. Jinan – “Spring City”

  8. Neighborhood Typologies in Jinan

  9. The Neighborhoods Studied (Traditional) (Superblock) (Enclave) (Superblock) (Enclave) (CommercialDistrict) (Enclave) (Enclave) (Superblock) Source: School of Architecture, Tsinghua University

  10. Typologies: Basic Characteristics

  11. Basic Household Characteristics

  12. Energy Consumption per Household Superblock Enclave Grid Trad.

  13. Average Household Operational Energy Consumption by Neighborhood (MJ)

  14. Annual Average Household Energy Use (MJ) Jinan, USA, Canada Sources: US EIA, 2005; NRC, 2007.

  15. Household Operational Energy Expenditureby Income

  16. Household Energy Consumption versus Appliance Ownership

  17. Operational Energy: Some Insights(all else equal) • Hot and cool neighborhoods? • Superblocks = ↑ air conditioner (AC) ownership • AC HHs = ↑ 18%-26% CO2 than non-AC HHs • Solar friendly neighborhoods? • Non-Superblocks = ↓ solar hot water heater (SHW) ownership • SHW HHs = ↓ 8% less CO2 than non-SHW HHs • A High-rise, “compact” compromise? • Elevators, water pumps, underground parking • Up to 25% of per household annual CO2

  18. Average Household Transport CO2 Emissions by Neighborhood

  19. Transportation Energy: MJ/Person

  20. Vehicle Ownership, Income, Neighborhood

  21. Household Weekly Transport CO2 Emissions by Household Monthly Income (US$)

  22. Estimated Expected Reductions in Household Travel Energy Due to: Measures

  23. In Sum • Operational (especially in-home) energy use = 70-80% of household energy use • Transportation = next largest share • Except in low-transport demand neighborhoods • But, transportation energy seems much more sensitive to urban typology… • And, transport growth likely to exceed in-home energy use growth • Superblock already = 45% of Canada/US HH in-home energy use • Superblock only = 15%-25% of Canada/US HH travel energy use

  24. Some Implications • Coal-to-clean energy transition needed • Coal responsible for >50% of household total energy use/emissions • Rethinking the Superblock • Increases in-home, common area, embodied and transportation energy use • Revisit the desired design principles of, especially, the Enclave • Location matters • Less distant developments reduce travel energy use • On-BRT corridor displays mixed effects

  25. Some Implications • Size matters • Home size strongly determines in-home energy use • Smaller homes, with location convenience, in neighborhoods with “out of home” attractions. • The ownership society • Ever more money, ever cheaper goods • How to move these forces towards more efficiency?

  26. Some Implications • Shaping attitudes, changing behaviors? • Measured attitudes (value of time, public transport preference, towards car ownership) significantly impact measured in home and travel energy use and device ownership • High leverage preference shaping policy window might be shrinking… • How to defensibly bring residential neighborhood development into local and global pollutant regimes? • We are developing a tool to help quantify relevant effects….

  27. The “Energy Pro-forma” • Objective: • Decision support tool to enable designers/developers to explore and compare performance across development patterns • Approach • Life-cycle.. • Systematic • Empirically based • User friendly??? • Inspired by the pattern book design elements

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