Theory of Change

1. Theory of Change 1.1 Overview

2. What is a Theory of Change? A hypothesized series of changes that are expected to occur in a given context as the result of specific integrated actions.

3. What is a Theory of Change? • a product – • Conceptual diagram / metrics/ complementary documentation • a processof articulating the way we think about a current problem, its root causes, the long-term change we seek, and what needs to happen in order for that change to come about. • Continual reflection on whether, how, why change is occurring • Modifying the “product” if necessary

4. Why do we need a Theory of Change? • To build a common understanding around the process needed to achieve a desired change. • To provide a detailed map showing pathways of change that: • is based on a clear and testable set of hypotheses. • makes explicit how interventions will interact within the context • To identify critical areas addressed by external actors and how the project will link to them.

5. The TOC Process

6. The TOC Process • Comprehensivedatacollection and analysis • Use causal analysis to create a problem tree • Create a solution tree and identify pathways of change • Identify assumptions and articulate rationales • Prioritize outcomes the project will address • Identify intervention outputs • Transfer the TOC to the logframe • Identify indicators for TOC components • Complete complementary documentation • Review annually at minimum

7. 1. Comprehensive Data Collection and Analysis Your evolving evidence base ! • Information that supports: • Your claim a problem exists • Opportunities/ capacities that will support underlying assumptions • Causal links between outcomes. • What kind of data? • Quantitative and qualitative • Government research • Donor research • Program-specific • Academic • Community–based research • What is key to a robust evidence base? • Balance between qualitative and quantitative data • Diversity of relevant sources • Reliability of sources

8. 1. Comprehensive Data Collection and Analysis (session 1.2) Key to effective and efficient data collection / analysis • Use a conceptual framework to help determine what to collect and to sort data • Consistently track what you don’t know – identify evidence data gaps

9. 1. Comprehensive Data Collection and Analysis Stakeholder Mapping and Analysis • Helps build evidence base for assumptions • Identifies conditions and resources already in place that are necessary to achieve outcomes • Helps team begin to prioritize problems for project focus • Who is doing what, where? • How successful is it? • What are the gaps? • Is ongoing throughout the development of the TOC and the life of the project.

10. 2. Causal Analysis / Problem Tree Map Causal Streams Include contextual conditions that affect all underlying causes. Example: climate change; political instability; etc. • What are the main causes of the overarching problem? • In what sequence are problems connected to one another? • Highlight evidence gaps in the causal logic.

11. 2. Causal Analysis / Problem Tree Identify 4 Levels of Problems

12. 2. Causal Analysis / Problem Tree Drill down on underlying/root causes practices and behavior (e.g., low adoption of improved agricultural practices) knowledge levels, beliefs, attitudes that influence practices and behavior (e.g. food taboos for pregnant women) systemic conditions (e.g., limited access to improved water supply) that influence both knowledge and behavior

13. Sample Excerpt from Problem Tree

14. 3. Solution Tree • Restate all problems in terms of desired change • State as “condition resolved”, not as actions • Do not use of “through”, “by”, “so that”, “via” etc. • Problem trees  solution trees • Overarching problem statement  project goal • Key problems  domains of change (purposes) • Underlying causes  solutions (incremental outcomes)

15. Sample Solution Tree

16. 3. Pathways of Change • Identify domains of change (Purposes, Strategic Objectives, key leverage points) • main areas where change must occur • Map a pathway of change or “pathway” • sequence in which outcomes are expected to occur in order to accomplish the domain of change and ultimately reach the stated goal. • outcomes on lower levels are preconditionsfor outcomes at the next higher level.

17. 4. Identify assumptions and articulate rationales Session 3.2 • Rationales: the underlying logic and evidence that support the plausibility of a pathway linkage Assumptions: Conditions that are important to the success of a TOC, but are beyond its control

18. 5. Prioritize outcomes/domains of change that the project will address • Identify individual outcomes or entire domains of change that are outside the project’s scope • Identify outcomes already being addressed by external actors • Consider your institutional comparative advantage • Stakeholder review • Invite key stakeholders to vet the TOC • Identify outcomes where new partners will be necessary

19. 6. Identify intervention outputs for TOC outcomes Session 4.2

20. 6. Identify intervention outputs for TOC outcomes Session 4.2 Select appropriate responses based on • a clear and logical link to at least one TOC outcome. • opportunity analysis –what capacities are in place? • evidence-base – what is proven to work in the given context • a thorough analysis of assumptions and risks • the comparative advantage of your organization/ consortium • the interest and influence of relevant stakeholders

21. Refine the TOC Use distinct colors and shapes and make a key

22. 7. Transfer TOC to Logframe Source: USAID 2016

23. 8. Identify indicators • Indicators tell us how we will recognize achievement at each step in a pathway. • Can be quantitative or qualitative • At least one indicator must be defined for every TOC component transferred to the logframe. • Impact indicators – purpose-level and goal outcomes • Outcome indicators – sub-purpose/intermediate outcomes/ lower-level outcomes • Output indicators – outputs/activities • Risk indicators – outputs /activities

24. 9. Complementary documentation/ TOC Narrative • Complementary documentation allows you to: • communicate information that is not easily interpreted from the TOC conceptual graphic • share references to evidence that supports causal logic • identify external actors who are responsible for producing outcomes in the TOC • Explain and provide supporting evidence for assumptions and rationales

25. 10. Review annually, at minimum Conduct a thorough review of the TOC annually through the life of an activity. The structure of the TOC review will differ depending on the year of the review. Purpose: consider what has been learned; what has changed, including the context; consider new evidence since the previous review.

26. The TOC Product

27. The TOC Product Conceptual diagram - explicitly displays the long-term goal, domains of change, incremental outcomes, assumptions, rationales, and outputs and shows the pathways that lead to the desired change. Metrics (indicators or other measures) for each component of the TOC- tell us how we will recognize achievement at each step in the pathway. Complementary documentation- communicates information not easily interpreted from the TOC diagram.

28. FFP Theory of Change Conceptual Model

29. How do we know if the TOC is adequate? A complete TOC diagram provides: • A communication tool to gain agreement among stakeholders about what defines success, what it takes to achieve it, and who will do what. • An outline of how interventions should be sequenced. • A monitoring and learning tool to understand what factors may be impeding expected change. • A blueprint for evaluation that identifies metrics of success. • A visual representation of the expected change and how it will occur based on a clear and testable set of hypotheses. TESTABLE PLAUSIBLE FEASIBLE

30. TOC checklist A tool for determining quality and completeness of TOCs for FFP DFSAs

31. Key Differences: Results Frameworks and TOC • TOC is developed using: • Backwards mapping • Rigorous causal analysis supported by evidence base • Rigorous attention to underlying assumptions • TOC not limited to those changes that we will directly address through programming • Identifies external efforts • TOC helps to prioritize optimal sequencing of interventions

32. Key Differences: Results Frameworks and TOC A TOC CAN and SHOULD BE REVISED REGULARLY !