1 / 27

The Future III: Defence Needs and Policy - The Way Ahead

The Future III: Defence Needs and Policy - The Way Ahead. Neil James Australia Defence Association www.ada.asn.au. What is the Australia Defence Association?. ADA founded in Perth in 1975

soren
Download Presentation

The Future III: Defence Needs and Policy - The Way Ahead

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Future III: Defence Needs and Policy - The Way Ahead Neil James Australia Defence Association www.ada.asn.au

  2. What is the Australia Defence Association? • ADA founded in Perth in 1975 • Only non-partisan and truly independent, community-based, public interest watchdog and ‘think-tank’ on defence and wider national security issues • Community-based membership throughout Australia (fewer than 15% are ex-military) • Website: >www.ada.asn.au< • Quarterly national journal - Defender • Monthly bulletin - Defence Brief • Receives no government funding and depends on membership subscriptions and corporate donations

  3. What is the Australia Defence Association? The national community watchdog on national security matters. Our public interest guardianship role and function is similar to that of other community watchdogs such as: • Taxpayers Australia (Taxpayers Association) • Australian Consumers Association • Australian Conservation Foundation

  4. there are plenty of votes in taxes, trees and shopping but few votes in defence

  5. there are no votes in defence (until it is too late)

  6. we can prove our independence by our poverty

  7. www.ada.asn.au

  8. Scope • Some figures • Some history • An overview • Macro-economic picture • Some thoughts • Discussion

  9. Some Figures • 4 years • 2 years ahead • 41 reviews of the ADF’s reserve components • 3 changes of depot and 7 changes of SED • 30 per cent and 50 per cent smaller than 1990 • 18-30 age cohort • 2017 • 27% to 37% over the last decade • 1 in a 100-year war • $A1,000,000,000 • 14 times • 3 Ministers not 1 and a 1/3

  10. A Little History 1:

  11. A Little History 2:

  12. History III • CMF was organised and acculturated to a “3rd AIF” model • the war that never came • “deemed qualified” • debillitating rivalry (DPS Vs Blamey delusion) • The Army Reserve has never had enough diggers and junior NCO, except • national service 1951-57 • national service 1965-72 • Fraser’s Afghanistan largesse diversion 1980-81 • Ready Reserve Scheme

  13. History IV • Government and Opposition • Spiral of broken promises and opportunities • Project Waler • “deemed qualified” disaster • training time debates since Millar Review • RRES to HRR saga • cadre quality contagion • pentropic to Army 21 disasters/betrayals • Awards and AWAs • Demography-economy-ethnicity ambush

  14. History V • Timor: • nice and close • the Indonesians chose not to fight • the rest of the world came and rescued us • the folly of much “contracting out” in terms of ADF depth • The conflict with Islamist terrorism: • first operational role for formed reserve units since 1945 • immediacy of threat • community relevance

  15. Overview • Politicians do not fix problems often because we let them ignore the problem (or just waffle) • Few Australians ever change their vote on a defence issue alone (and then they usually do so far too late to fix it) • 1 in a 100-year wars might only occur every four generations but they do still occur • expansion base • retention base • community-military interface (public visibility) • civil-military government capacity • Cost Versus capability dilemma • SES/CFA comparison - immediacy of the threat not just “localism”

  16. The Future in Macro-economic Terms

  17. Population in 1965 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 Males Females

  18. Population in 2005 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 Males Females

  19. Population in 2045 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 Males Females

  20. Average real GDP per capita by decade

  21. Labour force growth

  22. Nominal GDP to 2042 with different productivity assumptions $billion $billion 7000 7000 6000 6000 +0.5 per cent ($1016 billion) 5000 5000 - 0.5 per cent ($852 billion) IGR Projection 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 2001-02 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32 2036-37 2041-42

  23. Defence spending (% of GDP)

  24. Demographic spending pressures (% of GDP)

  25. Some Thoughts • ADF Reserve not RANR, ARES+, RAAFAR • “Reservist” not “Reserve” • Joint focus, including joint reserve units • Profession of Arms (there are actually few part-time doctors, dentists, lawyers, radiographers, architects, etc) • 3 Ministers not 1 and a 1/3 • Real roles then long-term consistency of policy and application • HECS waiver • Medical and dental cover (and gym membership) • Superannuation • Comparable pay rates for skills but taxed?

  26. Discussion

  27. www.ada.asn.au

More Related