Exploring Global Demographics: Population Growth, Distribution, and Trends

1. Demographics: What are the Issues? Population world clock: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

2. On 31 October 2011, world population reached 7 billion.

3. Baby Seven Billion? • Baby Five Billion: Matej Gaspar of Croatia, in 1987 • Baby Six Billion: Adnan Nevic in Bosnia in 1999 • Baby Seven Billion: 3 token babies (Philippines, India, Russia) born in 2011 due to competition among UN agencies and charities to mark this world-population milestone • The U.N. estimates that baby No. 8 Billion will take its first breath around 2025. According to the organization's 2010 population report, Baby 9 Billion will show up shortly before 2050, and the world will welcome its 10 billionth person by 2100.

5. How did the world get so big so fast? • In 1000CE, what was the total population? What was the distribution of population in the world? • What happened to the world population in 1804? • What slowed the death rate in the 1800s and 1900s? • What is the world population distribution in 2011? • When does the UN predict the world population will level out? • By US National Public Radio npr.org (2011) 2:33 • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcSX4ytEfcE

6. 7 Billion in 2011 • How big is 7 billion? • When did the world population reach 1 billion? • When might the world population reach 9 billion? • What is the average person’s life expectancy in 2010? • What is the definition of a megacity? • What were the first three megacities in 1975? • How many mega cities are there today? • What does the video say we need to accommodate 7 billion people? • National Geographic video (2010) 3 mins. • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc4HxPxNrZ0&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PL8D538DCC6B58FF65

7. Where do you fit into 7 billion? • The BBC has a tool to figure out your birth order among the people currently alive today. • http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-15391515

8. Basis of 7 billion number • Estimates are mainly based on the national census data of 141 countries that produce them, and “official estimates” (informed guesses) for another 89 countries. • Countries with the fastest population growth are by definition very poor countries (e.g. Afghanistan and Somalia) and therefore have the worst statistics. • Margin of error is more likely two years in either direction. • Is population growth slowing down? The Economist • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAIv15fWfHg&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PL8D538DCC6B58FF65

9. 7 Billion are you typical? • Before watching this, try to guess the characteristics of the world’s most typical person • What is their gender? • What is their age? • What is their ethnicity? • What is their income? • National Geographic (2011) 3 mins. • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4B2xOvKFFz4&feature=relmfu

10. Malthusian Theory of Population • A British economist and demographer in the late 1700s, Thomas Robert Malthus came up with the idea that population growth is exponential while the growth of our food supply is arithmetic • He advocated for population control; and warned we would eventually run out of food • He failed to anticipate the agricultural revolution that coincide with the industrial revolution

11. Malthus and lack of food • The British Parliament was encouraging earlier marriage and paying a bonus for every child beyond two. It was believed that early marriage would reduce pre-marital sex, and welfare payments would reduce the poverty of larger families. • Malthus was concerned that these policies would increase starvation among the poor, since no more land was being cultivated to feed their increasing numbers.

12. Replacing ourselves • What creates perfect demographic balance? • What is the total fertility rate? • What number keeps the population stable? • What problems develop if the fertility rate is too low? • Where is the birth rate lower than 1.2 per woman? • Video • http://overpopulationisamyth.com/2-point-1-kids-a-stable-population 2:12

13. Why 2.1? • Replacement rate fertility requires each woman to replace herself. According to CIA World Factbook, there are 107 boys born for every 100 girls. • Each 100 women need to bear 207 children in order to produce the 100 girls needed to replace them. • Dividing 207 children by 100 women equals 2.07 children per woman (round up to 2.1)

14. Having Fewer, but still growing • In 1950, global fertility was ~ 5.0 and we were increasing by around 35 million per year. • Today, fertility has dropped to half of that: 2.5. However, we are increasing by 76 million per year: more than twice the growth with half the fertility.

15. Shrinking populations? • In 2011, 104 of the world’s 224 nations had birth rates less than “replacement level” of 2.1 and 120 were at or above. However, the number of nations is irrelevant: • China has 1.3 billion people and Pitcairn Island has 48. Both nations have fertility rates below replacement level, but one grows by 6.6 million each year and the other is rather stable.

17. Food and Population Growth • A common myth is that we don’t have the means to feed everyone on the planet • But we actually do, some studies show we are currently capable of feeding 10 billion • The real causes of hunger are poverty and inequality • We have enough food; just not everyone can access it

18. agricultural footprint • We have new technology to help us grow more food – but do we have the physical space? • Current agricultural footprint is land equal in size to South America to grow food and raise livestock. • If the population reaches 9.5 million, civilization will have to cultivate another Brazil’s worth of land—2.1 billion acres—if farming continues to be practiced as it is today. That much new, arable earth simply does not exist.

19. Vertical Farms • Growing food in glass high-rises could drastically reduce fossil-fuel emissions and recycle city wastewater that now pollutes waterways. • A one-square-block farm 30 storeys high could yield as much food as 2,400 outdoor acres, with less subsequent spoilage.

20. Megacity: a city with more than 10 million people Biggest megacities

22. Can you guess? • What are some of the top 10 biggest cities in the world?? • Note: this list is ranking the cities based on their city proper populations, it does not take into account surrounding suburbs

23. 10. Mumbai, India • 12,478,447 people

24. 9. Tokyo, Japan • 13,513,734 people

25. 8. Istanbul, Turkey • 14,025,000 people

26. 7. Guangzhou, china • 14,043,500 people

27. 6. Dhaka, bangladesh • 14,543,124 people

28. 5. Karachi, pakistan • 14,910,352 people

29. 4. Lagos, Nigeria • 16,060,303 people

30. 3. Delhi, India • 16,787,941 people

31. 2. Beijing, China • 21,516,000 people

32. 1. Shanghai, China • 24,256,800 people

34. Population Videos • Don’t Panic –-The Facts about Population Wingspan for BBC 2013 - one hour • http://www.gapminder.org/videos/dont-panic-the-facts-about-population/#.VA0dR_ldV8E • Will saving poor children lead to overpopulation? • Feb., 2014 - 4 mins. • http://www.gapminder.org/videos/will-saving-poor-children-lead-to-overpopulation/ • Don’t Panic – End Poverty • Wingspan for BBC Sept. 23, 2015 – one hour • http://www.gapminder.org/videos/dont-panic-end-poverty/