1 / 29

Joze Sambt University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics Alexia Prskawetz

National transfer accounts for Austria Implications for the projections of life cycle deficits, demographic dividends and support ratio. Joze Sambt University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics Alexia Prskawetz Vienna University of Technology and Vienna Institute of Demography.

stan
Download Presentation

Joze Sambt University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics Alexia Prskawetz

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. National transfer accounts for Austria Implications for the projections of life cycle deficits, demographic dividends and support ratio Joze Sambt University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics Alexia Prskawetz Vienna University of Technology and Vienna Institute of Demography

  2. Structure of the talk National transfer accounts – methodology National transfer accounts for Austria Projections of life cycle deficit, first demographic dividend and support ratio for Austria Life cycle deficit, first demographic dividend and support ratio for European NTA countries

  3. http://www.ntaccounts.org/web/nta/show http://europe.ntaccounts.org/web/nta/show/ 34 countries Europe: Austria Finland France Germany Hungary Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom

  4. National transfer accounts methodology

  5. Source: Andrew Mason, 2007.

  6. National transfer accounts for Austria

  7. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics • ESTIMATING AGE PROFILES FOR AUSTRIA • DATA • CES 1999/2000 20,028 observations for individuals • 7,098 observations on households • ECHP 2000 5,801 observations on individuals • 2,644 observations on households • + many additional information from health insurance, pension insurance, etc.

  8. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics LIFE CYCLE DEFICIT 21 57 36 years

  9. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics COMPONENTS of LCD

  10. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics ASSET REALLOCATION

  11. Projections of • life cycle deficit • first demographic dividend and • support ratio • for Austria

  12. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics Population Structure Austria, 2008 Source: Eurostat

  13. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics Population Structure Austria, 2023 (the year of the lowest value of the first demographic dividend) Source: Eurostat

  14. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics (a) PROJECTING LIFECYCLE DEFICIT Austria, 2000-2050; EUROSTAT Population Projections (EUROPOP2008)

  15. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN LCDAustria, 2000-2050; EUROSTAT Population Projections (EUROPOP2008)

  16. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics Composition of the Lifecycle deficit (LCD) by age groups Austria, 2000-2050; EUROSTAT Population Projections

  17. (b) FIRST DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND GDP per capitasupportoutput per (output per effective = ratio x effectiveworker consumer)

  18. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics Projecting the first demographic dividend Austria, 2000-2050; EUROSTAT Population Projections EUROPOP2008

  19. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics • (c) SUPPORT RATIO The demographic change implies achange in relative size of self supporting and dependent population. the support ratio:  = LF / CON LF …. effective labor force CON …. effective number of consumers influenced by -> consumption needs of people of different ages -> changes in retirement age -> labor force participation rates -> earning power of those who are working Source: Cutler et al. (1999) An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity

  20. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics Alternative 1: CON1 = i=1…99 Ni (common dependency ratio) Alternative 2: differentiate resource needs by age CON2 = i=1…99 Si Ni (needs weighted consumption measure) Alternative 1: LF1 = i=20…64 Ni (common dependency ratio) Alternative 2: LF2 = i=15…80 w i PR i N i (adjust for wages and lfpr by age)

  21. Actual and Projected Changes in Support Ratio (relative to 1990),Four Alternative Measures, Austria, 1950-2060, EUROPOP2008 Population Projections LF1/CON2 LF2/CON2 LF1/CON1 LF2/CON1 LF1/CON1 LF1/CON2 LF2/CON1 LF2/CON2

  22. (a) life cycle deficit, • (b) first demographic dividend and • (c) support ratio • for • European NTA countries

  23. (a) Lifecycle deficit for EuroNTA countries Germany: 31 (27-57) Slovenia: 31 (25-55)

  24. Lifecycle deficit for EuroNTA countries Sweden: 38 (25-62)

  25. (b) First demographicdividend Periods of positive 1st dem. dividend

  26. (c) Four alternative measures of support ratio (relative to 2000) Finland Austria Germany France

  27. Four alternative measures of support ratio (relative to 2000) Hungary Slovenia Spain Sweden

  28. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics • END

More Related