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The rise of the Sustainable Culture from the Ashes of the Oil Empire

The rise of the Sustainable Culture from the Ashes of the Oil Empire. RESOURCE WARS. Dr. Susan Krumdieck NZ ESR Conference 2004. A Long Time Ago…. Whales started to get scarce and, behold, the ground in Oklahoma spouted forth oil And there was light, and the light grew.

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The rise of the Sustainable Culture from the Ashes of the Oil Empire

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  1. The rise of the Sustainable Culture from the Ashes of the Oil Empire RESOURCE WARS Dr. Susan Krumdieck NZ ESR Conference 2004

  2. A Long Time Ago… Whales started to get scarce and, behold, the ground in Oklahoma spouted forth oil And there was light, and the light grew

  3. And the Oil Empire was born… "supply creates demand " Jean Baptiste Say (1767-1832)

  4. And the Law of the Land was Supply and Demand

  5. And so the people prospered… Minerals Water 50 Fossil Fuel 40 Global Annual Hydrocarbon Production 30 20 10 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

  6. And technology could accomplish anything… Everything will be alright, as long as we form a federation and find the infinite energy source Dilithium Crystals

  7. Then some people became concerned

  8. And sometimes when they thought about the future….

  9. It seemed like things were getting out of control “Sometime in the 23rd century...the survivors of war, overpopulation and pollution are living in a great domed city, sealed away from the forgotten world outside, controlled by a powerful computer”

  10. “Without vision the people perish…” “What we see is not the old city being resurrected. It's something new that will be born out of the ashes of the old...."

  11. (J. Rifkin) The "Forever Fuel" But nice, smart people were working on answers

  12. But the answers didn’t seem to be answers • We need cheap, plentiful energy • Demand is projected to grow by 40% • We need more energy for economic growth • We will require new production • Clean coal

  13. And many were troubled… • Righteous warnings of impending disaster • Denial – Forward self-projection • Blame – Find those at fault • Fatalistic Acceptance – Tragedy

  14. And they dreamed of the future of the Oil Empire becoming the Hydrogen Economy

  15. Now a new age dawns Total Hydrocarbons (after Campbell, 2001 model) Constrained Supply Unconstrained Supply 50 40 Global Annual Hydrocarbon Production 30 20 10 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

  16. Question: How do we have a high quality of life, if there are limited resources? Continuity

  17. Regulation Trade Innovation Change Factors + Sustainable Factors Technology Economy Quality - Continuity Model Impacts Performance Nature Continuity Theory

  18. How do we discover continuity? What is available? Energy Architecture What services do people need?

  19. Sustainable Energy Architecture Form and Function Service within the limits of material budget and requirements of structural robustness Beauty and Expression

  20. Advanced Energy and Material Systems Laboratory Interdisciplinary research effort to develop the theory, models, information, ideas, technology and planning tools for New Zealand to begin the journey toward a Sustainable Civilization.

  21. Research Directives • Continuity Theory development and application • Continuity Model development • Strategic Analysis for particular problems and issues • Strategic scenario development • New Technology opportunity realization

  22. Continuity Model ContinuityModel Sustainability Factors Tony Burton, PhD student

  23. Strategic Analysis • Christchurch: Energy analysis for home heating and air pollution – 5 year scenario • Tristan Wallbank 2002 • Final Year Project Team 2004 • PetroChina: Transportation Energy Scenario and Technology Review • Andre Dantas, T. Burton, E. Wang, S. Minges 2003 • Transportation and Electric Grid Scenario • Final Year Project Team 2004

  24. Energy Architecture • Sustainable Energy Constrained Transport Christchurch • Silke Leitermann 2003 • Michael Saunders, Masters Student 2004

  25. Destination Project Model for a system that balances the renewable energy availability with the requirements of a high quality of life

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