Opportunities for Assuring High Production of Rice in India Achim Dobermann Deputy Director General (Research) Internati

1. Opportunities for Assuring High Production of Rice in India Achim Dobermann Deputy Director General (Research) International Rice Research Institute General Council, NFSM, New Delhi, January 18, 2011

2. Outline • Global rice supply-demand • A rice revolution in South America • New technologies & some specific suggestions for India • What role can IRRI play?

3. Area growth/contraction have driven global rice production. Yield growth remains too slow. FAO Rice Market Monitor, 11/2010

4. Global per capita rice consumption IRRI FAO IFPRI Kilograms 2 kg 7 kg 15 kg

5. Global rice demand until 2035 IRRI estimates

6. What needs to be done? Rice demand: • In each of the next 10 years produce at least 8 million tons rice more (rough rice) . Rice supply: • Little change in harvested area(160 million ha) • Yield growth of 1.2-1.5% until 2020 (+50-60 kg/ha/yr) • Yield growth of 1.0-1.2% after 2020 Change how we grow rice: • New seeds to adapt to changing climate • Less tillage, less water, less labor, less pesticides, more efficient fertilizer use • More resilient, diversified rice-based farming systems Smarter people who implement these changes

7. Southern Cone, 1.3 million ha

8. Rice area, production and yield in the Southern Cone, South America

9. Average cost of production - 21,8% Instituto Rio Grandense do Arroz

10. Water use efficiency in RS State 4 m3/1 kg of rice 2 m3/1 kg of rice ≤ 1 m3/1 kg of rice

11. Precision management: small details make big differences Plant for maximum yield potential Optimize your plant population Preventive pest management Early weed control Balanced nutrition Irrigate early & well 6 management principles that are NOT site-specific

13. Key elements of success • Sound agronomic principles that can be easily communicated and implemented • Location-specific technology solutions that matched farmers’ needs and scale of operation • Strong role of farmer-to-farmer extension • Strong support mechanisms • Local agri-businesses • Knowledgeable, motivated field agronomists • Focused applied research & extension program (IRGA) • Self-sustained -- 100% farmer-funded through a levy of $0.20/sack rice  $30 million/yr for research and extension • No subsidies, no market interferences

14. Indian rice need by 2035 000 Metric Tons Kilograms >20 MMT of additional rice needed by 2035 IRRI estimates

15. Paddy yields in major Indian states, 2007/08 Tons per hectare Account for 45% of total rice area Data Source: Rice Almanac India, Directorate of Rice Research

16. General considerations • Relax export ban on non-basmati rice? • Adjust MSP/replace with some form of direct income transfer to reduce market distortions? • Greater presence of Food Corporation of India for procurement of paddy from the Eastern region? • Critically review impact of current policies: promotion of machinery, (organic) fertilizers, SRI and hybrid seeds? • How to enable increase in yields and cropping intensity in eastern and southern India? • Water • Machinery • Suitable short-duration varieties • Fertilizer

17. Making rice climate-proof drought salinity heat submergence

18. Advances in marker-assisted breeding • Submergence (sub1) + anaerobic germination tolerance (new QTLs) • Salinity tolerance (saltol, other QTLs) • Drought tolerance (single QTL, pyramided QTL) • Increased P uptake (pup1) • Heat tolerance at flowering • Pyramiding of BLB resistance genes • Pyramiding of blast resistance genes • Pyramiding of BPH resistance genes • Tungro resistance (new gene) • Grain quality traits (new QTLs, chalk-free rice) • MAS for large number of agronomic traits

19. Future rice-based systems

20. Has SRI had a measurable impact? Rice yield, tons/ha • Claim: adoption of SRI on some 600,000 ha (1/3 of T.N.) • Difficult to verify what practices were adopted. New? • No impact on state yield? • Not a forward-looking technology

21. A direct-seeded rice revolution in India

22. Mobile phone SMS compatible NM Rice: For 94-105 sacks of rice on 1 hectare in dry season w/ good management practices: Apply 3 bags 14-14-14 basal or w/in 10 days after transplanting (DAT), 1 bag urea at 21 to 25 DAT, 1 bag urea at 30 to 34 DAT. Available in the Philippines. Coming soon in Indonesia and other countries 1 Call tool free number 2 Answer 12 questions about field 3. Receive guideline via text Nutrient Manager provides farmers with field-specific guidelines Computer via Web connection 1 Access web site 2 Answer 15 questions about field 3. Receive guideline via internet www.irri.org/nmrice

23. New technologies pipeline Improved varieties Improved varieties - yield potential: C4 rice - Yield potential: new inbreds, hybrids - biotech (drought, heat, NUE, BNF) - Vit. A & Zn enriched rice Improved rice systems - Multi-stress tolerant varieties - - Ecological intensification & - Varieties for conservation agriculture diversification of production systems Improved rice systems Improved value chains - Ecological intensification & - New products/by-products from rice diversification of production systems - New generation IPM Africa Improved value chains - Grain quality & specialty rices LAC Improved varieties Asia - Hybrids - Stress - tol. varieties Improved rice systems - Agronomy (SSNM,AWD, …) - Conservation agriculture - Mechanization Improved value chains - Postharvest technologies Productivity and efficiency growth 2010 2020 2030 à

24. 10 specific actions for India • Roll out stress tolerant varieties & invest in developing the next generation (multi-stress, DSR) • Roll out Super Bags for safe seed/food storage • Reduce hybrid rice subsidies – support public and private R&D to overcome current hybrid rice constraints • Support shallow tubewells for intensifying cropping in eastern India • Promote site-specific solutions for optimized cropping systems and good agronomic management principles • Support small service providers for mechanized cropping systems management (conservation agriculture) • Develop agricultural machinery industry in eastern India • New nutrient management tools & regional fertilizer policies • Promote Certified Crop Advisor (CCA) program and create similar certification program for agro-input dealers • Establish an Indian Rice Information Gateway

25. National/Global Rice Information Gateways Crop growth model Medium-term projections Monitoring and short-term forecasting Rice supply- demand-trade model Policy makers Analysis of policy impacts Statistics, GIS Remote sensing

26. Real-time crop monitoring service Digital elevation model SAR Data Data Processing - Acreage at emergence - Growth stages - Crop calendar - Administrative units - Meteo data - Soil data - Phenological data - Management data Agro Meteorological Model Rice Figures - Yield prediction - Harvest time Acreage Production Yield Production

27. What additional role can IRRI play? • Catalyst for public and private sector efforts: already working with over 120 partners in India • Facilitate development of an Indian Rice Information Gateway • Eastern India rice initiative • Conduct strategic assessment • Stress-tolerant varieties adapted to climatic risks • Mechanized, efficient double/triple cropping systems • Postharvest technologies • New delivery and professional service models • Capacity building: young agricultural professionals • Molecular rice breeding center for India and other SAARC countries • Assist with setting up a national grain quality lab • Science and extension capacity building (CCA)