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General Body Meeting 10.13.11. Agenda. Announcements Various Recruiting Events News Updates TTM Update Unemployment, European Rate Cuts Volcker Rule Leak, Drexia , Occupy Wall Street Annaly Capital Mini-pitch ACC Real Estate Pitch. Recruiting Events.
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Agenda • Announcements • Various Recruiting Events • News Updates • TTM Update • Unemployment, European Rate Cuts • Volcker Rule Leak, Drexia, Occupy Wall Street • Annaly Capital Mini-pitch • ACC Real Estate Pitch
Recruiting Events • UBS: Intro to Global Capital Markets • 4:30pm – 5:30pm - Wednesday, October 26th • Phillips 219 • Goldman Sachs: An Inside Look at Wall Street • 10:00am – 11:00am – Thursday, October 27th • Statler Hotel, Amphitheater • Morgan Stanley: Firmwide Presentation • 6:00pm – 7:30pm – Thursday, October 27th • Statler Hotel, Ballroom • NYC Trip • Fill out Survey!
Unemployment • Unemployment rate holds steady at 9.1% • Non-Farm payroll increased by 103,000 exceeding expectations • July and August estimates were revised upwards • Senate killed Obama’s job bill, but President Obama will keep fighting • Initial jobless claims above 400K
European Rating Cuts • Fitch downgraded Spain & Italy • “the intensification of the euro zone crisis” • ECB buying debt in secondary market • Spain and Italy passed austerity plans • Growth concerns • Elections in Spain on November 20
Volcker Rule • On Tuesday the FDIC unanimously approved an initial version of the Volcker rule • Limits proprietary trading at banks • Issues associated with the Volker Rule • Reduce revenue generated through trading • Constrain liquidity • It is difficult to enforce • Competitive Disadvantage • Impact: • Would hit GS and MS the hardest • 48% and 27% of total revenues respectively • Most people believed that this version of the Volcker Rule is too stringent, and won’t be passed
Drexia Bank Bailout • Belgium plans to bailout Dexia Bank • Purchasing $5.4 billion in assets • Providing tens of billions of dollars in new guarantees • Passed a stress test three months ago • Triggered by other banks’ reluctance to lend to it due to its exposure to highly toxic entities ( Greece, Italy etc.) • Many European governments are reluctant to offer money to save the financial sector as they are already facing rising debts • This bank-rescue mission could be a model to save all the European banks from the risk of catastrophic meltdown and contagion
Occupy Wall Street • Protests have been going on for the past few weeks in large cities, namely New York and Washington D.C. • Social inequality, corporate greed, corporate payments to lobbyists etc. • Has gained support from students, unions and some politicians • Very preliminary phase • Politicians response? • Follow-up
Annaly Capital QuanTeam
REITs Investors REITs Mortgage Backed Securities Lenders Lends money at high yielding rates Borrows money at low rates
REITs Lends money at 6% Investors REITs Mortgage Backed Securities Lenders Profit: Lending Profits -- Borrowing Costs 6% -- 1% = 5% Profit: 5% Receives money at 1%
REITs Shareholders Shareholders Shareholders Profits Shareholders Shareholders Dividends: Pays out 90% of their profits as Dividends to Shareholders Dividends Yield: 15.5%
Comparisons Interest Rate Spread: 2.45% Interest Rate Spread: 4.20%
Comparisons Interest Rate Spread: 2.45% Interest Rate Spread: 2.23%
Thesis • Annaly’s underlying business model has not been changed • Sovereign Debt Crisis has no effect on Annaly • Operation Twist has had a minimal impact on borrowing and lending rates • Vast selling indicates we are Technically Oversold • Fear has been unwarranted
Reasons For Price Drop • Fear that sovereign debt crisis will filter to the REITs • Liquidity will slow down • Costs of borrowing will rise dramatically • SEC Regulations • Chance that the SEC will place more regulations on the REITs
Best of Breed • Ultra-Safe mortgage backed securities • Insured by Government • Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae • Industry Leading Name • Liquidity • Public Awareness
Proposal • Sell Every other Position in the Club and buy this stock • ;)
American Campus Communities Derek Creadore ArshamMemarzadeh Margaret Szczerbicki Nick Hosseini Alex Friedman
Thesis • Stagnant economy and weak job market encouraging more people to go back to school • School room & board costs are increasing at unreasonable levels causing students to house off campus • Largest REIT focused on residential student housing properties • Consistent dividend yield currently at ~3.50%
Company Overview • Develops, manages, and acquires student housing assets • Leader in third-party development and management of on-campus student housing – possess 50 on-campus projects • Developed over $2.8 billion in properties since 1996 • The first publicly traded student housing REIT
Company Overview (2) • As of June 30, 2011, property portfolio contained 107 student housing properties with approximately 66,400 beds in approximately 21,200 apartment units • Over 40,000 beds acquired since 2005
Business Segments • Wholly-Owned Properties • On-Campus Participating Properties (ACE) • American Campus Equity (ACE) projects will have premier on-campus locations with marketing and operational assistance from the university • Subject university benefits by increasing housing capacity with minimal impacts to their credit ratios • Development Services • Property Management Services
Industry Overview • On campus college housing prices have been constantly increasing • Very few REITS focused solely on campus properties Source: Source: Collegeboard.org – Trends in College Pricing
Competitors • Campus Crest Communities Inc. (CCG) • 15,000 beds • Only are involved in off-campus housing • Education Realty Trust Inc. (EDR) • Properties in 23 states and total of over $2.4 billion in collegiate housing transactions • Currently owns about 25,400 beds
Property Portfolio • Own property in 37 states and parts of Canada • Majority of properties are in the Sun Belt
Recent News August 8, 2011 • Beat analysts consensus September 15, 2011 • ACC to be added to the S&P MidCap 400 index
Strengths • Short term lease: change w/ market rent increases • Little credit risk: leases backed by parents Fin aid • Properties 95.2% pre-leased for 2011/2012 yr • 98.2% occupancy rate forecast • Affected differently than other residential REITs by low interest rates • Traditional rent vs. buy decision • Students can only rent • Lower I.R. for ACC means lower borrowing costs
Weaknesses • Limited land directly surrounding campuses • Biggest competitors (universities) can avoid RE taxes and borrow at lower rates • Housing demand impacted by universities • Number of students accepted to university • Requiring that a certain class to live on campus • Greater tenant improvement costs as college students usually trash the places they live in
Opportunities • Strong backlog of projects • As of 6/30/11, $456.6M in projects under construction, all scheduled for completion by Fall 2012 • Continuous growing college enrollment, stimulated as economy remains weak • Operation Twist and the Feds continuous policies should keep long term I.R. low for a decent while
Growing College Population Source: http://nces.ed.gov
Threats • Trend towards online schools • Private construction of on-campus housing from universities • Availability of financing in tough economic environment to continue growing portfolio of properties
Income Statement (all values in thousands of dollars)
Contractual Obligations • Plan to meet requirements through revolving credit line, selling properties, issuing common stock ($150M ATM Equity Program), utilizing cash flow from operations.
Dividend History • AFFO = net income+deprecation-recurring CapEx • AFFO (2010) = 16,210k + 80,253k - 10,136k • AFFO (2010) = 86,327k • Dividend payout = 78,588k / 86,327k = 91%