Developing 2018 Base Case Emission Inventories for Regional Haze Planning

1. Developing 2018 Base Case Emission Inventories for Regional Haze Planning Tom Moore WRAP Technical Coordinator 970.491.8837 – mooret@cira.colostate.edu

2. Emissions Inventories and Projections:Columbia Gorge Project and WRAP CG Project 2004 EI (assembled for study) WRAP 2018 Preliminary Reasonable Progress (rules on the books as of Spring 2007, known BART controls, corrected errors from 2018 Base case, some sources again held constant WRAP 2018 Base Case Projections (rules on the books as of late 2005, growth using EPA EGAS, some sources held constant WRAP 2000-04 Planning EI (2002 Base Case emissions except 5-year average fire and 4-year average EGU emissions rates – developed with state input WRAP 2002 Base Case EI (actual emissions as reported by states/locals for triennial NEI requirement – QAed with state review before use) Union of 5 ovals is regional analysis basis of haze plans 2018 Final Reasonable Progress Planning EI & Modeling case – Spring 2008 Final 2000-04 Planning EI & Modeling case – Fall 2007

3. WRAP Emission Inventory Scenarios for Regional Haze Planning • “Base02b” - Actual emissions from 2002 • Used for Model Performance Evaluation (MPE) statistics – EPA requirement • Compared to monitored values • Completed Fall 2005 • Results: • 36 km grid resolution • Air quality impacts at each Class I area • Light extinction - species and total visibility • Natural vs. Anthropogenic • “Plan02c” – representative of 2000-04 Baseline Planning Period • Used for analyzing change from 2000-04 to 2018 for regional haze • 2000-04 fire EI data averages fire activity levels by state over 5-year period, leaves fires at same time and place • EGU monthly/daily temporal profile averages by state • Completed May 2006 • Results: • 36 km grid resolution • Air quality impacts at each Class I area • Light extinction - species and total visibility • Natural vs. Anthropogenic

4. WRAP Emission Inventory Scenarios for Regional Haze Planning, cont. • “Base18b” – 2018 Base Case Emissions = “rules on the books as of 12/05” & activity changes from population growth • Other piece of change from 2000-04 to 2018 for regional haze • Starting point for control strategy analyses • Completed June 2006 • Factors in modeling 2000-04 to 2018 base case: • Held constant: Wildfire, Windblown Dust, Offshore Shipping, 1999 Mexico, & 2000 Canada EI data • No BART/BtB control programs included • EGU temporal profile averages by state • Results: • 36 km grid resolution • Air quality impacts at each Class I area • Light extinction - species and total visibility • Natural vs. Anthropogenic • “PRP18” – Preliminary Reasonable Progress for Haze Planning = “rules on books” as of 3/07, error correction from 2018 base case, & known/presumptive BART controls • Next piece of change from 2000-04 to 2018 for regional haze • Changed to Canadian 2020 projections • Completed June 2007

5. 2018 Base Case – Point & Area Source EI Development • Point and Area projected from 2002 data reported by states/locals - report at: http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ssjf/documents/eictts/docs/WRAP_2018_EI-Version_1-Report_Jan2006.pdf - see Chapter 4 for growth factor methods • EGUs grown using EIA factors, state permit info, source data, see page 4-1 • Other Point Sources grown using EPA Economic Growth and Analysis System growth factor model (EGAS) Version 5.0, see page 4-10 • Generates SCC-specific growth factors for a specified geographic area, base year (i.e., 2002), and future year (i.e., 2018) using various socio-economic data (U.S. EPA, 2004; Abt, 2004). At the present time, the EGAS model runs with default data that can only generate growth factors at the state-level. • Default model runs were made for every state within the inventory with the exception of California. Growth factors from the default model runs were matched using SCCs to each inventory record. In the event that an inventory record SCC did not match any of the SCCs in the EGAS output, a growth factor of 1.0000 was assigned. In most cases, unmatched SCCs were caused by the input of incorrect SCCs in the inventory record. • Area Sources grown using factors were obtained from one of three sources, see page 4-11: • the EGAS growth factor model, • energy projections from EIA, or • agricultural crop projections from the USDA)

6. 2018 Base Case – Point & Area Source EI issues • Documented in January 2006 report, see: http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ssjf/documents/eictts/docs/WRAP_2018_EI-Version_1-Report_Jan2006.pdf - Appendix B – Errata • Begin review and comment at February 2006 Stationary Sources Joint Forum meeting, see: http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ssjf/meetings/060201den/NonEGU_Area_Emissions_Review_SSJF_2_1_06.pdf • EI changes (2018 base case version “b”) reported at August 2006 SSJF meeting, see: http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ssjf/meetings/060816m/2018EmissionsChangesUpdate8_16_06.pdf • Outstanding issues with 2018 Base Case addressed with state-by-state interviews in 2018 Preliminary Reasonable Progress (PRP18) EI analysis and modeling during Spring 2007, see: http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ssjf/documents/eictts/Projections/PRP18_EI_tech%20memo_061607.pdf

7. Technical Support System (http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/)Applications for Columbia Gorge ProjectMonitoring Data Results

8. Technical Support System (http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/)Applications for Columbia Gorge Project, continuedSource Apportionment & Modeling Projections CORI COGO COGO

10. How do BART CalPuff modeling results fit into Regional Haze modeling? Present 2018 base case EI & modeling results (includes all BART sources “as is”) Each State deciding “subject-to-BART” using CalPuff modeling • Control Strategy Emissions Data • [known/possibilities/updates] • BART/BtB backstop • Oil & Gas • Population factors • Area sources • CA emissions controls • “Outside-of-WRAP” changes Engineering analyses determine specific emissions reductions Each State decides visibility improvement “subject-to-BART” using CalPuff modeling + factors • Results of regional haze control strategy modeling for reasonable progress analysis • Air quality impacts at each Class I area • Light extinction - species & total visibility • Natural vs. Anthropogenic • Scaled source apportionment as before • (state/source category Each State permits BART/BtB emissions limits Future

11. Status of the regional haze modeling analysis process Final 2000-04 EI & modeling analysis to be completed Fall 2007 May 2007 Summer 2006 • PRP18 EI & modeling results • BART/BtB backstop • Oil & Gas • Population factors • Area sources • CA emissions controls • “Outside-of-WRAP” changes • Emissions Changes • 2002 to new 2018 • 2005 to new 2018 • 2000-04 to new 2018 • Modeling Results • 2002 to new 2018 • 2000-04 to new 2018 2018 base case EI & modeling results Present Future