Primaries and caucuses

1. Primaries and caucuses

2. Timing of primaries • The national parties usually lay down the earliest and latest possible dates but within that period the state decides the date • Some states try to schedule their primaries on a date when no other primaries are being held to get their state prominence • Other states create a regional primary • A Tuesday in Feb when a number of states arrange their primaries together has come to be known as SUPER TUESDAY • In 2008 Super Tuesday was in early Feb and was the biggest ever with 22 Democrat and 21 Republican contests being held.

3. Front-loading • This is the phenomenon by which an increasing number of states schedule their presidential primaries or caucuses earlier in the cycle • This is usually an attempt to increase the importance of their state • In 1980 only 11 states had their primary before March • By 5 February 2008 55% of delegates to the Democratic and Republican conventions had been chosen (see sheet)

4. Iowa and New Hampshire • By tradition they always hold the first primaries. • These contests often shape the character of later contests. • A serious candidate always looks to win in one of these states • However, Bill Clinton failed to win either one • Also, Howard Dean did badly here, (hence the scream) even tho he had won the invisible primary • Kerry had put all his time and money into winning Iowa (which was first) which he did and this seemed to be a winning strategy as he then built up momentum and then won New Hampshire • This seems to show these contests are more important than the invisible primary?

5. How representative are Iowa and New Hampshire? • These contests seemed more important in 2004 than the invisible primary • Answer the question using the sheet

6. Advantages of front loading • Party settles its nomination early thus avoiding a protracted and expensive battle lasting for months

7. Disadvantages of front loading • Unfairly favours well-known, well-organised and well-financed candidates and makes it much more difficult for so-called insurgent candidacies to be successful e.g. Jimmy Carter in 1976 Democratic race • Because the nomination is decided so early, there is little opportunity for any reassessment of a candidate’s potential weaknesses. Can lead to ‘buyer’s remorse’. • Has also lead to a chaotic timetable which makes it difficult for candidates to campaign

8. The 2008 Republican primary • There were 8 candidates but only 4 were realistic ie McCain, Thompson, Romney and Guiliani • McCain was the front-runner at the start of 2007. Any ideas why? • Romney was the CEO of the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City in 2002 and was also Governor of Massachusetts, a Republican governor of a Democrat state. But he is a Mormon and also seen as quite liberal

9. The 2008 Republican primary • Guiliani was ‘America’s mayor’ after 09/11 • However, he was also seen as too liberal for some Republicans and had a colourful private life • Fred Thompson was in Law and Order but he dithered too much and then dropped out

10. The 2008 Republican primary • Guiliani took a risk that did not pay off – he decided to sit out the first 6 contests as he felt he would be too liberal to play well with Republican voters • He had failed to build up momentum or get media attention and thus bombed in Florida • Romney thus put all his money into winning Iowa in the hope of building up momentum, however, Huckabee won • Huckabee was seen as more ‘normal’ than the slick Romney

11. Continued • New Hampshire helped McCain, he had done what Bill Clinton had in 1992 when he labelled himself the ‘comeback kid’. • He had been behind in the money primary but then started to build momentum • McCain had beaten Romney in every demographic except the over 65s • In the following contests it was his support amongst ‘independents’ which helped him

12. Crowning of McCain • Super Tuesday sealed McCain’s fate as the Republican nominee • He won 6 of the 7 ‘winner-takes-all’ contests including California. • Huckabee had played a key role as he had taken votes away from Romney having support from evangelicals and the South

13. Why did McCain win? • Mainly because his opposition imploded e.g. Guiliani’s disastrous strategy • Romney being liberal but pandering to the conservative right of the Republican party • Thompson dithered • Huckabee only really appealed to southerners and evangelicals • McCain had remained true to himself even on unpopular issues e.g. immigration, Iraq and campaign finance reform

14. The 2008 Democratic primary • There were 3 front-runners - Clinton, Obama and John Edwards • Clinton was the clear front-runner, 2 months before Iowa she was 28% ahead of Obama • However, she came 3rd in the Iowa caucuses • She never really recovered from this • Charlie Cook ‘National Journal’ – ‘The Democratic nomination fight may not be over but the landscape has completely changed’

15. 2008 Democrat primary contest • The poll after the Iowa caucuses put Obama and Clinton at 33% each • Hillary tried to show her more human side as she was now fighting for her political life • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVlwH7-05Fk • She won New Hampshire but only by 8000 votes. More women had voted for her and the younger voters

16. 2008 Democratic primary contest • Between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday Clinton won Nevada and Obama won South Carolina • Most women voted for Clinton and the over 65s but every other social group voted for Obama in South Carolina • Obama got the endorsement of Ted Kennedy • Bill had campaigned in South Carolina and he seemed to be losing his cool • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su82qBzUwjQ • Ted Kennedy said that the contest had ‘fundamentally altered the dynamics of the Democrat presidential contest’

17. Super Tuesday • The result was a draw, with Obama just ahead on points • Obama won 13 to Clinton’s 9 but Clinton’s tally included large-population states of California and New York • Obama won 847 delegates to Clinton’s 834 • Clinton had not expected the primary contests to last and thus had no plan to move forward • Obama now had the big mo

18. The end of Clinton • Hillary’s contest ended in February • Obama won 9 contests in 11 days and pulled ahead in terms of delegate numbers • Clinton sacked her campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle • By mid-February Obama was ahead in the polls and was now winning votes amongst women, low income earners and conservatives away from Clinton • Symbolically, the Obama team started his speech before she had even finished hers • Clinton hoped to win Texas to show she could still win big

19. Hillary’s last hurrah • Clinton team were running out of the big mo and money and everyone was waiting for to bow out • However, she had a better March and April – winning Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island • Clinton focussed on Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience • Her ’sniper fire’ quote was found to be misleading • However, Obama had his own bad press due to his association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright and his controversial comments • Clinton clung on until June when Obama finally received the 2,118 delegate votes he needed

20. Why did Clinton lose? • The 2008 Democratic nomination race was supposed to be a coronation for Clinton not a competition • She had been planning her victory for more than a decade • But this was part of her problem, the air of inevitability, this counted against her with voters

21. Poor organisation, personnel and management • Based organisation similar to Bill’s campaign in 92 • Chief personnel were Patti Solis Doyle and Mark Penn who were friends and not necessarily the best people for the job • There seemed to be no clear plan • Some of her team were fighting with each other

22. Losing the money primary • ‘Mrs Clinton built the best fund-raising machine of the 20th century but Mr Obama trumped her by building the best fund-raising machine of the 21st century’ The Economist • Clinton campaign was raising money the old way – thru fat cats and ‘whales’ i.e. big donors who only donate once • Obama was raising money thru the internet getting $50 or $100 but many times

23. Change, not experience • Voters according to polls wanted change but Clinton had based her campaign on ‘experience’ and tried to attack Obama for lack of it

24. The Iowa defeat • Clinton finished third in Iowa and from then on was always on the defensive • She needed to have a big win in New Hampshire to pull things back but altho she did win it was only by 3 percentage points

25. No plan past Super Tuesday • ‘It’ll be over by 5 February’ Clinton had claimed just days before the Iowa caucuses • She thus had no plan to move forward and was running out of money

26. Bill Clinton • The campaign started to be about Bill and his erratic behaviour • He was supposed to be an asset but had turned from ‘statesman into attack dog’ Newsweek • The issue became if she can’t control her husband, who the hell is going to run this White House – a Clinton insider • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qqd2dfjl2pw

27. Primary calendar and party rules • ‘It was the primary calendar that killed Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign’ New York Observer • If the Democrats had allowed winner-takes-all primaries • If Florida and Michigan had been a bit later etc