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Concerning Thunderstorm ( Potential ) prediction

Concerning Thunderstorm ( Potential ) prediction. Jan PARFINIEWICZ , Inst. of Meteorology and Water Management,MOLC 01-673 Warszawa, ul. Podleśna 61, Poland. Essential: Self-learning Engine Thunderstorms Quantification End-User oriented Warning System.

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Concerning Thunderstorm ( Potential ) prediction

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  1. ConcerningThunderstorm(Potential) prediction Jan PARFINIEWICZ , Inst. of Meteorology and Water Management,MOLC 01-673 Warszawa, ul. Podleśna 61, Poland

  2. Essential:Self-learning EngineThunderstorms QuantificationEnd-User oriented Warning System

  3. Self-learning Engines:1) Kalman Filter (KF)2) Artificial Neural Network some generalisation to KF:after each signal an automatic renewal of the multi-regression set ofparametersKF++’s: basic statistics allows on dispersion control (clasical physics)

  4. Thunderstorms Quantificationat 1st:SYNOP WW code => Convection Strength (CS) [0-7] • CSClouds ------------------------------------- • 0 No - • 1 light Cu • 2 moderate Cu med. • 3 quite strong Cb cal. • 4 Thunder possib. Cb cap. • 5 Thunder • 6 Hail possibility • 7 Hail ------------------------------------- to be done: • Tornado’sSuCell’s data WW2CS / ! 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 +2,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0, !0 +1,0,0,5,1,2,2,6,7,7, !1 +0,0,0,0,0,4,3,3,0,5, !2 +0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5, !3 +1,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0, !4 +0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0, !5 +2,1,1,1,1,1,0,1,0,1, !6 +0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0, !7 +4,4,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3, !8 +6,5,5,5,5,6,7,6,5,7/ !9 at 2end:

  5. Tempora mutantur at nos mutamur in illissThe System has been learning & I was learning togetherRecognizing SuperCell as a mobile Power Station [W/m2]- TORNADOgeneratorscaling strength of Tornado :1 – 5where 1 is Chojnice,PL , episode: 20120714:14.30’-15.30’[W/m2] ~ [MJ/10’*10km^2]

  6. Chojnice,PL , episode: 20120714:14.30’-15.30

  7. End-User oriented Warning System End-User = Casualties Essential: EMPATHY to CASUALTIES categories: 1) Presentation system (W. Łazarewicz) 2) Precise Warning Message System 3) End-User Entity including Verification

  8. Presentation: http://awiacja.imgw.pl1)Observed storms: all moderate severe … time scale time scale Severe Tornado

  9. Presentation: http://awiacja.imgw.plcategories: 1) Observed storms 2) Possible danger zone Pb+ = 1 3) Storm Potential 4) Strength of convection model option COSMO: 07km/14km Observed storms 2) Possible danger zone Pb+ = 1

  10. CONCLUSIONS Include Tornado’s scaling into prediction Continue search for potential predictors Dewelop 3-step Warnig System :12h, 3h, 1/2h

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