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DECISION SCIENCES CERTIFICATE PROGRAM

DECISION SCIENCES CERTIFICATE PROGRAM. BASIS STATISTICS BUSINESS CALCULUS Quantitative Business Analysis ----PLUS—TWO ELECTIVES--------- BUS 191 DECISION ANALYSIS BUS 196D DATA MINING. POTENTIAL ELECTIVES. STATISTICS II Quantitative Methods for Supply Chain PLANNING

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DECISION SCIENCES CERTIFICATE PROGRAM

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  1. DECISION SCIENCES CERTIFICATE PROGRAM • BASIS STATISTICS • BUSINESS CALCULUS • Quantitative Business Analysis • ----PLUS—TWO ELECTIVES--------- • BUS 191 DECISION ANALYSIS • BUS 196D DATA MINING

  2. POTENTIAL ELECTIVES • STATISTICS II • Quantitative Methods for Supply Chain PLANNING • DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS • FINANCIAL ENGINEERING

  3. BUS 191: DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTYDr. Ron Davis BT 355: 408-924-3547 davis_r@cob.sjsu.edu www.cob.sjsu.edu/facstaff/davis_r/ ron@mathproservices.com www.mathproservices.com

  4. Office Hours • BT 355; (408) 924-3547 • MW 3:15-5:45pm; Tue 2:45-5:45pm • Online the night before exams in Elluminate Chatroom for BUS191

  5. PREREQUISITES • MATH 70 – Finite Math (optional) • BUS 90 – Business Statistics • Equivalency Forms Signed

  6. REFERENCE TEXT • MAKING HARD DECISIONS with DecisionTools by Robert Clemen/Terence Reilly • The DecisionTools Suite from Palisade Corp. • Course Reader Chapters

  7. TOPICS IN DECISION ANALYSIS • PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS • Discrete • Continuous • UTILITY FUNCTIONS – (Exponential) • BASIC DECISION PROBLEM • EVPI and CEVPI • DECISION TREES AND BAYESIAN INVERSION • EVSI and CEVSI • INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS – (Data Structures) • SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS • RAINBOW DIAGRAMS • TORNADO DIAGRAMS • SOFTWARE ADD-INS from PALISADE CORP • Case Studies

  8. EXCEL ADD-INS • The DecisionTools Suite • RISKview – Distribution viewing tool • BestFit – Data Fitting with multiple distributions • @RISK – Risk analysis and Simulation • PrecisionTree – influence diagrams and decision trees • TopRank – “What if” sensitivity analysis tool • RISKOptimizer – optimization of simulation models

  9. BlackBoard WEB Course Technology • http://sjsu6.blackboard.com • WebCT account • UserID = Student ID with “W” in front • Password = spring (or your choice) • BUS 191 will be in your course list

  10. Blackboard FEATURES • Course Content • Calendar • eMail • Bulletin Board • Chat Room

  11. BASIS FOR GRADE • Four Computer Projects • 50 or 100 points each • Data Analysis – Best Fit • Distribution Analysis – RISKview • Simulation - @Risk and RISKOptimizer • Decision Analysis – PrecisionTree and TopRank • Three Exams • MidTerms 1 & 2: 150 points • Final: 250 points • Extra Credit • 10 URLS on OR/MS in use today • ~25 points per project

  12. EXTRA CREDIT ADJUSTMENT FORMULA • ST = Semester point Total • EC = Extra Credit point total • SA = Adjusted Score • SA= 850*(ST+EC)/(850+EC) • SA computed in EXCEL not Blackboard • Computations done in Excel, does not show in WebCT

  13. EXAM RULES • CHEAT SHEETS ALLOWED • One page notes each midterm • Three pages for the final • CHEATING NOT ALLOWED • No talking until you leave the room • No passing of papers back and forth • No copying of answers from neighbor • Sharing of points for identical answers

  14. HINTS FOR YOUR SUCCESS • Use a three ring notebook binder • Print stuff from the web • Punch holes in your printout and store in your three ring binder • Work all the practice problems • Browse the web using search engines for extra credit points and related info

  15. TYPES OF DECISIONS

  16. DECISION QUALITY CHAIN

  17. DECISION QUALITY RATINGS

  18. DECISION PROCESS

  19. ORGANIZATIONAL DECISIONS

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