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Youth, Conflict, and Terrorism. Zachary Rothschild Eurasian Regional Affairs Officer Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism U.S. Department of State rothschildzr@state.gov 202-647-2169. OVERVIEW. Definitions Relationship between Youth and Conflict
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Youth, Conflict, and Terrorism Zachary Rothschild Eurasian Regional Affairs Officer Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism U.S. Department of State rothschildzr@state.gov 202-647-2169
OVERVIEW • Definitions • Relationship between Youth and Conflict • Lessons learned and programmatic approaches
Definitions… • “Terrorists care about how many people are watching, not how many are dead.” • Insurgents: an armed group seeking to wrest political power from a government.
…and a relationship… • In 2006,al-Qaida and other terrorists (sought to) exploit insurgency and communal conflict as radicalization and recruitment tools, especially using the Internet to convey their message.” - U.S. Department of State
Areyouth a cause of war and terrorism? • No statistical correlation between youth ‘bulge’ and civil conflict, except where other factors present: • High unemployment • States in transition • Politics is organized around violent factions. • Most recruits into violent groups are alienated youth…
How Conflict Emerges • USAID’s Conflict Assessment Framework: • Incentives for Violence (Greed and Grievance – personal and group) • Resources (Weapons, Training, Recruits) • Weak State & Social Capacity to Respond
Not just self-interest… • Profile of Shehzad Tanweer, 21, one of the British Tube Bombers, July 2005 • Accomplished athlete studying sports science at Leeds Metropolitan U. • Born and raised in U.K, of Pakistani origin • Loving, supportive, and financially successful parents • A friend described him as “not interested in politics,” and “as sound as a pound.” • Sageman’s study of Al-Qaeda Biographies • 2/3 were middle or upper class • 60% had gone to college
….It’s also who you know… • Sageman: 88% of Al-Qaeda members studied (n=400) had family/friends in the ‘Jihad’ • Peer pressure: No suicide bomber has ever acted alone.
…and what you accept as right (legitimizing ideology)… “He is an enemy of ours whether he fights us directly or merely pays his taxes.” - Osama bin Laden
Doing something about it: Principles and Programs • Peer networks and peer pressure drive radicalization and recruitment… but can also support youth engagement and development. • Programs: • Networking in and out-of-school youth, • Service learning
A Mathematical Interlude • 4th grade math puzzle in Afghanistan: • ‘The speed of a Kalashnikov bullet is 800 meters per second. If a Russian is at a distance of 3200 meters from a mujahid, and that mujahid aims at the Russian’s head, calculate how many seconds it will take for the bullet to strike the Russian in the forehead?’
Doing something about it: Principles and Programs • Lesson: What youth know can shape what they believe to be right. • Programs: • Maradi Youth Development (Niger) • Madrasa Street Law Program (Kyrgyzstan)
Doing something about it: Rural Dynamics • “Traditional authority figures often wield enough power to single-handedly drive an insurgency. This is especially true in rural areas.” • U.S. Army Counterinsurgency Manual • Pacifying the Moro Islamic Liberation Front: The Datu and his bananas • Lesson: Engage youth with traditional leadership, not apart from youth in isolation – and create opportunity. • Programs: • Intergenerational Dialogue Workshops (Burundi) • Create economic opportunity to reinforce hope and dignity.
Doing something about it: Rural Dynamics • Safehavens key to terrorist access to resources; often found in (rural) border areas. • Less state control, less state services = More opportunities for insurgents. • Examples: Hamas & Hizballah • Lesson: Engage youth in service-delivery to reduce likelihood safehavens emerging. • Programs: • Youth Service Corps to improve service delivery