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1 st Board of Directors Meeting December 20, 2012. Agenda. Review 2012 Conference Review Board Roles Review 2013 Board Membership Improve topic list and brainstorm options. Background.
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Agenda • Review 2012 Conference • Review Board Roles • Review 2013 Board Membership • Improve topic list and brainstorm options
Background Historic levels of metals and resins pricing volatility over the past four years have generated a significant interest in future pricing and methods for controlling costs through the supply chain. In response, Advanced Purchasing Dynamics, Inc. organized and managed the 2012 Motor Vehicle Metals and Resins Conference. The conference was held on May 12, 2012 at the Hilton Double Tree, Dearborn MI. The purpose of this document is to recap the 2012conference and establish the high level plan for the 2013 conference.
Target Audience • Buyers and sellers of metals and resins. • Buyers and sellers of products utilizing metals and resins. • Service providers and forecasting firms.
2011 Board of Directors • Dave Andrea, Senior Vice President, Industry Analysis and Economics, Original Equipment Suppliers Association • Joe Borruso, President AOEM Associates. Former positions include: President, Hella North America; VP Sales and Marketing, Bosch North America • Jeoff Burris, Founder and Principal, Advanced Purchasing Dynamics, Inc. • Jeff Mengel, Partner/Plastics Team Head, Plante and Moran • David Nelson, President, Dave Nelson Group. Former positions include: Vice President, Global Supply Management, Delphi Corporation; Vice President, Worldwide Supply Management, Deere and Company; Senior Vice President, Purchasing, Honda of America • Bruce Swift, CEO, Diversified Machine. Former Positions include: President of Metaldyne Driveline Division; Chairman and CEO of Covisint; Vice President - Ford of Europe Purchasing; Director of Global Raw Materials, Ford Motor • Scott Thiele, Senior Director, Metal Components Purchasing, Chrysler • Jeremy Wilson, Vice President of Supply Chain Management, Spartan Motors, Inc. • James P. Ziety, Counsel, Borda Lorenz PC
2012 Board of Directors • Dave Andrea, Senior Vice President, Industry Analysis and Economics, OESA • Bruce Benda, VP Automotive & Transportation, Bayer MaterialScience • Steve Binkowski, Vice President of Sales and Purchasing, Toyota Boshoku America • Ermal M. Faulkner, Director of Global Exterior & Raw Material Purchasing, Ford Motor Company • Laurie Harbour, President & CEO, Harbour Results Inc. • Jeff Mengel, Partner/Plastics Industry Group Leader, Plante Moran • Lance Reinhard, Executive Director Global Procurement, American Axle & Manufacturing • Steve Rodgers, President, APMA • Bruce Swift, former CEO, Diversified Machine • Carrie VanEss, Vice President of Procurement, North America, Magna • Jeoff Burris, Founder and Principal, Advanced Purchasing Dynamics, Inc.
2013 Board of Directors • Dave Andrea, Senior Vice President, Industry Analysis and Economics, Original Equipment Suppliers Association • Jeoff Burris, Founder and Principal, Advanced Purchasing Dynamics, Inc. • Ermal M. Faulkner, Director of Global Exterior & Raw Material Purchasing, Ford Motor Company • Mary Foster, Vice President, Supply Chain Management, Inteva Products, LLC • Peter LeBlanc, Director OEM Sales North America, Arcelor • Steve Rodgers, President, APMA • Tobias Schoenherr, Assistant Professor, Supply Chain Management, Michigan State University • Drew Sheffield, Global Purchasing Director, TI Automotive & Fluid Carrying Systems Division • Kevin Stuban, Director Fabrication NA - Sapa Profiler AB, SAPA Group • John Torvinen, Metallic Purchasing Director, Chrysler Group LLC
2012 Conference Statistics • Registrants: 2012 – 172; 2011 -- 139 • Sponsors: 2012—14; 2011 19 Participant Evaluation of the conference indicated a high level of satisfaction. Metals Keynote 4.0 Scale 1-5 with 5 being Outstanding Resins Keynote 4.0 Venue3.9 Overall Rating Excellent – 59% of respondents Overall Rating Average – 41% of respondents Overall Rating Poor – 0% of respondents
Metals Workshop Topics and Ratings - 2012 Conference • Risk Management Strategies Metals – 4.3 • Measuring Purchasing Performance and Best Practices/Strategies for Metals Management – 3.5 • Outlook for Scrap Pricing and Strategies for Scrap Resale – 3.5 • Supply, Demand and Pricing Trends for Aluminum, Copper and Magnesium – 4.4 • Production Costs and Market Pricing. How do Steel Production Costs Vary in China, North America and India and What is the Relationship Between Steel Prices and Production Costs? – 3.9 • Synchronizing Your Suppliers and Customers on Key Commercial Issues: a Legal Perspective – 4.3 • Global Steel Supply and Demand – 4.2 • Identifying and Implementing Lower Cost Materials to Customer Specified Materials – 4.0
Resins Workshop Topics and Ratings - 2012 Conference • Measuring Purchasing Performance and Best Practices/Strategies for Resins Management – 3.6 • New PVC Regulations and the Implications on Customer/Supplier Pricing – 3.0 • Trends in Resins – 4.2 • Raw Material Procurement- Best Practices from a Turnaround Executive – 4.1 • Best Practices and Strategies for Negotiating Resins Prices 4.0 • Outlook for Rubber Supply, Demand and Pricing – 3.0 • Risk Management Strategies Resins – 4.3 • The Cost of Energy’s Impact on Pricing of Petrochemicals and Polypropylene– 4.5
Future Plans Plan to Improve Attendance and Provide More Value to Sponsors in 2013 • Conduct quarterly Metals and Resins webinars to keep 2011 attendees engaged and start building additional interest for 2012: • August 25, 2011 Price Risk Management Webinar, Tony Diaz, MF Global • September 28, 2011 Risk Management Strategies for Resins and Base Metals - Implementation Strategies, Tony Diaz, MF Global • November 30, 2011 Resin Webinar, Ben Morse, Platts • Add Metals and Resins Articles to APD Quarterly Newsletter. • Expand affiliations beyond OESA and Precision Metal Forming Association (Institute of Supply Management, Society of Automotive Analysts, Minority Supplier Development Council, etc.) • Set up 2012 Conference as a Linked In Event. Include more information from 2011 Conference (agenda, presentations and pictures). • Set up Motor Vehicle Metals and Resins Groups on Linked in. Encourage participants, sponsors and speakers to join; continue dialogue from 2011 conference and start 2012 dialogue.
Responsibilities Board of Directors • Board responsibilities: • to provide insights to help guide format and content for the conference. • Anticipated time commitment, 4-6 hours: • 2-3 Web based Board Meetings will be conducted with anticipation of less than 100% participation. • In conjunction, APD will supplement with one on one meetings with board members. • Board members will receive complimentary three full-day passes. • Attend the conference and the pre-glow event.
2013 Content and Format • Our intent is to keep the same format as 2013 while tailoring content to current issues:
Ten Top Metals Topics • Price forecast for hot rolled and cold rolled steel, aluminum, copper and nickel • Capacity/supply issues that may develop, imports, exports • Will the stimulus measures enacted by the US, EU and China cause a pull back in metals pricing? • What is the impact of weight reduction actions on demand for steel and aluminum for the next 5 years? • What is the impact of reduced natural gas prices due to fracking on steel and aluminum production costs? • Automotive high strength steel demand and pricing trends through 2020 • Availability and capacity issues with steel, aluminum, copper, nickel and precious metals • What is standard OEM policy for managing metals prices fluctuations through the component’s life? • What is the trend for establishment of common material specifications between U.S., EU and Asian automotive manufacturers? • Material trends and innovative changes that affect materials demand going forward (al vs steel; high strength steel; plastics vs steel) • Supply, demand and pricing trends in China
Other Metals Topics • How will the Hong Kong purchase of the London Metals Exchange impact hedging markets? • What will happen with physical premiums in the aluminum market as many banks are still tying up physical stockpiles in warehouses for financing deals plays? • With all the stimulus measures put into place by the US, EU, and China what headwinds could cause a pull back in materials pricing? Will we be in for another year of dramatic input cost increases like we experienced in 2011? • How will the new Dodd Frank rules impact the hedging markets in 2013? Will the changes provide any benefit to end user customers or will it just create more administrative burden? • Industry consolidation • China" • Ferrous and non-ferrous (copper) regional pricing for manufactured goods • "How are the current raw material programs working at the OEMs these days? How have things changed over the years from when they started at Ford, GM, Chrysler, etc.? • Is it better to lock in pricing for annual periods, quarterly, or bi-annual for say steel if not on a raw material program with customer(s)? • What are some statistics showing changes from steel to plastic for major auto component parts?" • Benchmarking best steel prices by major steel producer • Recommended timing to finalize future contracts • Recommended length of contracts (semi annual, annual, other) • Use of pricing indices such as link to iron ore or coke • Use of more liquid new steel contracts/futures/other" • Scrap pricing predictions 2013-2014 • exports -vs- imports • steel quality in US • raw material cost predictions • Futures
Other Metals Topics • Industry consolidation" • Nickel Market Dynamics • Copper Market Dynamics • Palladium Market Dynamics • Is Cap Ex in Metals Mining keeping up with global demand" • Risks and rewards of contract pricing based on committed volumes. • Risks and reqards of escalation / de-escalation agreements tied to indexes. • Preferred forecasting tools and publications monitoring and or projecting steel market movements." • Steel and Aluminum usage & pricing forecast in China. • Industry changes that could open up or constrict supply (i.e. big push to aluminum for car bodies) • Cost drivers and their changes • Inventory levels • Financial viability of top suppliers" • Develop of AHSS • How is the industry dealing with Conflict Materials legislation? • What are producers doing to control input costs • What would have to happen in the economy to go back to annual contracts as the norm?" • Standard OEM policy for managing metals price fluctuations throughout the component / program's life. • Common material specs between OEMs (especially VW and the ""former Big Three"")." • When will the European market recover from recession? • Is the metals raw materials supply going to contract after a year of weaker demand? • How will higher taxes affect US job growth? • How will increasing regulations stifle American manufacturing?"
Ten Top Resins Topics • Automotive sales forecast by segment through 2020. • Automotive supply, demand and price trends for major resins – potential capacity issues • Shale gas and its impact on feedstock pricing and availability for 2013 and 2014 • Feedstock supply/demand dynamics for Butadiene, Acrylonitrile, Styrene and Nitrile • New and emerging automotive resins technologies including bio resins; increasing and decreasing use resins • Forecast percentage of plastics and vinyl by composite vehicle weights for 2013 and 2014 • Projected production of major resins from U.S. versus foreign suppliers • Low cost internet sources for PP/TPU price forecasts • Standard OEM policy for managing resin price fluctuations throughout the life of the component • Common resin material specifications between U.S. EU and Asian automotive manufactures
Other Resins Topics • Effective cost modeling of resin for use in index agreements" • What are OEM's allowing as a process to adjust resin costs (either formal or informal approaches)? • What alternative concessions are being offered in lieu of resin price adjustments? • How has resin substitution, weight reduction or engineering design improvements been used to reduce the impact of resin cost increases (via reducing the size of the part or moving to a cheaper resin)? • Whom do most processors see as easy to work with regarding material prices (OEM's and Tier 1's) • What systems do companies use to provide support for material price adjustments (hedging, portfolio management margin analysis, etc)?" • "European impact on pricing • Recycling and feeds availability globally • "Global availability of butadiene • Global availability of EPDM polymer • Regional forecast on elastomer usage: what are USA, Europe India, Brazil and China markets doing Q2 2013, Q4 2013" • MaufacturingLead-time • 1-2 Manufacturers of a specific resin i.e. DuPont manufactures Delrin material no one else. • Change materials. When you do find an alternative resin its difficult to change this resin, customer ultimately has the final decision and in most cases customer will ask for a cost reduction. • little knowledge of the process, suppliers should provide on-site visits to go over the manufacturing process to better understand the entire resin material build up." • Any resins that may be in jeapardy of being discontinued for any reason by the automotive industry? • Any new ""high temperature"" resins being considered for under the hood? • What is the percentage of plastics and vinyls automotive manufactures expect to see in the next 5 years (as a percentage of the total vehicle)?
Other Resins Topics • How is the consolidation of raw material suppliers affecting pricing?" • Nylon pricing trend for 2013 (what level or savings are expected 3%, 5%, 10%, etc) • PA12 usage in automotive pre and post Evonik explosion • ETFE/EFEP/EVOH pricing trend for 2013 • HDPE pricing trend for 2013 • Pricing predictions on PP/TPU products for 2013 & 2014 • Oil predictions 2013-2014 • Forecasting - automotive requirements • Production output in US -vs- other nations • exports -vs- imports • alternate specification approvals (automotive) • How will Europe and China affect cost in the North America. • WEB Sources for good pricing predictions for resins PP/TPU that don't cost an arm & a leg to subscribe to." • "commoditiypricing • industry consolidation • futures funtionality • China 2013 forecast" • ABS Market Dynamics • PC Market Dynamics • Feedstock Supply/Demand Dynamics - Butadiene, Acrylonitrile, Styrene, Propylene" • Regional resin pricing • Tracking feedstock costs • Nylon alternatives such as carpet
Other Resins Topics • Standard OEM policy for managing resin price fluctuations throughout the component / program's life. • Common resin material specs between OEMs (especially VW and the ""former Big Three""). • VW resin material spec. availability in NA." • Resin price volatility • Resin security of supply • Resin for lightweighting in cars. • Resin in auto glazing applications. • Top resin requirements for auto parts producers" • Similar to metals, potential shortages and price volitility due to strong demand. • "Recycle material Nylon 6/6 from carpet and it values and molding effects compared to virgin materials. • PTFE how to track trends on this material what is the future trend on PTFE? • "PP trends by regions • Long-term trends • Nylon, PA6, PA66 trends • Energy cost forecasts" • Will pricing power move back to buyers when new plants come onstream? • Will polypropylene become a more affordable resin with the new propylene capacities planned in Canada, and the US? • Will LPG exports take the US natural gas pricing advantage as excess will be moved to higher priced markets overseas, thereby shooting the ""shale-inspired manufacturing revolution"" in the foot? • Will the shale-oil boom bring about the return to competitively priced heavy feedstock for crackers? • Will the market ever more away from the current ""price increase"" announcements to a more spot oriented price mechanism?" • All automotive headlight lenses are made of polycarbonate and although coated, many are showing signs of U.V. Degradation. When will the industry have a lens material that is U.V. tolerant?
Next Steps • APD will take the brainstormed list and build a list of workshops • January -- survey 2011, 2012 Participants and the Board to prioritize workshop topics and start arranging speakers • Goal – 80% of content and speakers identified by 2/15.