Talent, Competitiveness and Migration Selected Book Highlights and Policy Takeaways

1. Talent, Competitiveness and MigrationSelected Book Highlights and Policy Takeaways Demetrios G. Papademetriou President Migration Policy Institute October 28, 2009 Papademetriou/Migration Policy Institute

2. Selecting increasing proportions of immigrants through points systems has become the dominant labor market/economic migration mechanism in the last 15 years. A key rationale for such programs has been to use migration explicitly as a key instrument of economic growth and competitiveness. Looking across the main points systems (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the endless variations of the UK system), certain individual attributes come through as “first-tier” variables (i.e., most valued), and a host of others as “second-tier” ones. Immigration Points Systems: A Popular Tool for Economic Growth and Competitiveness Papademetriou/Migration Policy Institute

3. First- and Second-Tier Attributes • First-Tier Attributes: • Education • Work Experience • Age • Language • Prior Work Experience or Education in the Country of Proposed Immigration • Second-Tier Attributes: • Job Offer • Occupation in Demand • Partner Characteristics • Previous or Proposed Earnings • The Presence of Close Relatives • Settlement Stipulations • Investment with Job-Creation Responsibilities and Retirement Papademetriou/Migration Policy Institute

4. Simultaneously, however, interest in demand-driven and employer-led selection systems has also been growing steadily, reflecting a policy of using migration to meet labor market needs. Sweden, Spain, and Norway are the protagonists of this counter-trend. The Growth of Demand-Driven and Employer-Led Systems Papademetriou/Migration Policy Institute

5. Points systems pay much greater attention to employer needs, and thus look more like demand-driven systems. Points systems are supplemented with direct, employer-led, immigrant selection. More countries are experimenting with temporary-to-permanent visas (what we have called “provisional” visas). Dramatically increasing interest in circular migration ideas (with the possibility of transitioning from temporary to permanent status). Interest in talent will continue to be robust, but interest in the most talented will grow even faster. The Most Likely Near- to Mid-Term Future:Hybrid Selection Mechanisms Papademetriou/Migration Policy Institute

6. …But how will the most talented choose among those who may court them?

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8. That is, what does the recession mean for competitiveness and immigration, and particularly high-skilled immigration? …And What of the Recession? Papademetriou/Migration Policy Institute

9. Things that the Recession Has Not/Will Not Change • Skill and locational mismatches continue to be significant and rising. • Concerns about worker shortfalls, both actual and impending, continue to grow. • Educational and workforce-preparation systems in most economically better-off countries continue to produce not enough of the workers competitive economies require. • Fertility rates for many high-income countries continue to be low and very low. • The aging of the Baby Boom generation continues to create difficult-to-deal-with demographic and labor force predicaments. Papademetriou/Migration Policy Institute

10. And Recession or Not, the Underpinnings of Economic Competitiveness Remain the Same • Knowledge-intensive jobs continue to underpin economic growth and competitiveness, and no country can fill all these jobs from the domestic labor pool, even with sharply refocused training and retraining efforts. • Pre-, during-, and post-recession, better-skilled immigrants are always seen as the valued economic assets they typically are. • Post-recession, the hunt for talented foreigners will intensify and those countries that have not lost ground in terms of openness to foreigners during the recession are likely to come out ahead. • “Beggar-thy-neighbor” labor-market policies that seek to protect the jobs of domestic workers above all else (what The Economist calls “people protectionism”) will prove to be shortsighted when it comes to the talent and competiveness game. Papademetriou/Migration Policy Institute

11. Key Ingredients for Long-Term Competitiveness • Lest we forget, however, long-term competitiveness rests primarily on: • The choices and investments public and private sector policymakers and individuals make everyday. • Social support systems that put work front and center; • Social and cultural norms that value and reward lifetime learning; • Social institutions (such as schools at all levels, worker organizations, civil society writ large, etc.) that adapt to constantly shifting economic environments without losing sight of their principal missions; • Governments that create predictable policy environments and encourage and reward the private sector’s socially responsible actions; and • Individuals who constantly invest in themselves and their future. Papademetriou/Migration Policy Institute

12. …And After the Recession… • Values and social responsibility will still define the behavior of “smart” and successful societies; • Adhering to international obligations will not be any less important; • Economic logic will not have been turned on its head; • Policies that attract the most talented and those with scarce skills will be as relevant as they were during the pre-recession period of strong economic growth; • And the rate at which the developed world is aging will only be increasing while more and more of the developing world’s youth will be coming of age. Papademetriou/Migration Policy Institute

13. And Governments and Societies that Want to Get the Most Out of Immigration in the Post-Recession Period Will Do So on the Basis Of… • How sophisticated have they become in integrating immigration policy into their social and economic policy priorities; • How systematically they have learned to use evidence about successful immigrant integration in setting their immigration policies; • How smartly and deeply they have invested in the social, cultural, and economic integration of their foreign-born populations and their offspring, and how fruitful these investments have been; • How successful they have been in controlling the intolerance and political reaction toward immigrants that the economic downturn is sure to have exacerbated. Papademetriou/Migration Policy Institute

14. Demetrios G. Papademetriou President Migration Policy Institute 1400 16th Street, Suite 300 Washington D.C. 20036 dpapademetriou@migrationpolicy.org www.migrationpolicy.org www.migrationinformation.org Papademetriou/Migration Policy Institute