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Highlights Overview Project Activity July 2005 – August 2006

Highlights Overview Project Activity July 2005 – August 2006. Theme 1: Patterns and Variability. Multiple Constraints Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation. Trace Gas Transport Model InterComparison. Optimization InterComparison. (Parameter Estimation) Optimization InterComparison

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Highlights Overview Project Activity July 2005 – August 2006

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  1. HighlightsOverview Project ActivityJuly 2005 – August 2006

  2. Theme 1: Patterns and Variability

  3. Multiple Constraints Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation Trace Gas Transport Model InterComparison Optimization InterComparison (Parameter Estimation) Optimization InterComparison 10 participant groups [CSIRO-ESA funded] 1 constraint • Transport Model • Atmospheric CO2 Final synthesis 2006 2 papers 2 constraints • Transport Model • Terrest. Biosphere • AVHRR-PAR • Atmospheric CO2 Contributing to: Carbon Fusion: UK-NERC and other partners Data Assimilation: US-NSF proposal (submitted) Rayner et al. 2005 Theme 1 Lead by Raupach

  4. Dynamic Regional Carbon Budgets and Methodologies Conference: Beijing, 16-19 August 2006 - International Workshop: Beijing, 20 August 2006 – Focus on Asia Pacific • Synthesis Papers (in preparation) for special Issue • Model intercomparsion on regional carbon budgets: • 1st stage: China (2006-07) • 2nd stage: Asia Pacific (2007-08) Theme 1 Lead by GCP-Beijing Office, Canadell

  5. Regional Project on Carbon and Water Issues in SE Asia • "Regional project on carbon and water issues in SE Asia" • has funded 7 projects with PIs from Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines in 2006. • 2. "Advanced training workshop on carbon and water issues in SE Asia"An international team of 18 lecturers from 8 countries provided training to 33 junior faculty and senior technician/staff from 13 countries in Southeast Asia (including Australia) and South Asia. A new workshop will be held next November. The Workshop was organized by the Southeast Asia Regional Committee for START (SARCS) and sponsored by the GCP. Theme 1 Lead by Chen

  6. Annual Update of the Global Carbon Budget Short News in Science/EOS Media event with Press Release Website Theme 1 Lead by Lequere, Canadell

  7. Theme 2: Processes and Feedbacks

  8. Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate-Human System Land Permafrost Oceans HL Peatlands CH4 HydratesBiological Pump Solubility Pump T Peatlands Veg.-Fire/LUC GCP 2005

  9. Vulnerability of Frozen Carbon To updated Geo-referenced database on frozen carbon stocks. To develop a conceptual framework with all processes and feedbacks to understand future dynamics. To synthesize century-scale permafrost dynamics from GCMs and 1-D models. Overall Synthesis: Vulnerable in permafrost carbon. Workshop Series 2006-08 Funded by: European Science Foundation; National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS-NSF); ICSU grant to IGBP 1st meeting Santa Barbara, CA February 2006 Partnership: Global Carbon Project (GCP) International Permafrost Association (IPA) Climate and Cryosphere (CliC-WCRP) Theme 2 Lead by Field & Canadell

  10. Vulnerability of Carbon in Tropical Peatlands Workshop Series (2006-08) Funded by: Asia Pacific Network, GCP, GEC, CIFOR 1st Wk: January 2006, Sumatra, Indonesia Partnership: Global Carbon Project (GCP) Global Environment Center-Malaysia (GEC) CIFOR-Bogor (Indonesia) • Undertaken Research & Synthesis: • Update on extent and C stocks • Land use change impacts • Fire impacts • Future C emissions (scenarios) • Special Issue in ECOSYSTEMS • (submission 2007) • New Research: • Carbon transport by water in Kalimantan (Chen’s Program) • Mitigation and Adaptation: reducing vulnerability through conservation and sustainable use of peatland (APN, CIFOR) • EU – to sponsor 2007-10 Wks Theme 2 Lead by Canadell, Parish, Murdiyarso

  11. 2003 Europe 0.5 PgC 2003 Siberia 0.2 PgC 1994-2002 High-Mid Latitude Summers undo the benefits of earlier spring 1997-98 SEA Tropical 1.4 PgC 01,02,03 SEA Trop. 1.2 PgC 1997 Amazon Fire Year 2002-present 0.2 Pg C 2005 Amazon 1 Pg C Vulnerabilities of the C cycle to Drought and Fire Are regional drying trends weakening the terrestrial carbon sink? • Theme 1: Observations of Climate Change, Variability and the Carbon Cycle • Theme 2: Processes and Controls of Coupled Carbon-Water Cycles • Theme 3: Modeling Present and Future Interactions of Carbon and Hydrological Cycles • Theme 4: Vulnerability and Ecosystem Services of Carbon-Water Cycles Australian Academy of Science, Canberra, Australia, 5-9 June 2006 Co-sponsors: GCP, Australian AR-ESS-N, AIMES, ESF Theme 2 Lead by Raupach & Canadell

  12. Vulnerabilities: Synthesis and Integration • Raupach MR, Canadell JG (2006) Observing a vulnerable carbon cycle. In: Observing the Continental Scale Greenhouse Gas Balance of Europe (eds. H. Dolman, R. Valentini, A. Freibauer), Springer, Berlin (submitted). • Canadell JG, Gifford R, Houghton S, Pataki D, Raupach MR, Smith P, Steffen W (2006) Saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink. In: Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, Canadell JG, Pataki D, Pitelka L (eds.). The IGBP Series. Springer, Berlin (in press) Theme 2

  13. Theme 3: Carbon Management

  14. Open Science Conference Carbon Management at Urban and Regional Levels: Connecting Development Decisions to Global Issues Mexico City, September 4-8, 2006 Co-Sponsors: AIMES; START; Global Land Project; IHDP/IGBP Urbanization Project; Industrial Transformation (IT); National Institute of Ecology (INE); and Metropolitan Autonomous University Theme 3 Lead by Romero, Dhakal

  15. Urban and Regional Carbon Management (URCM) Place-based and policy-relevant carbon management research agenda A. Longer-term regional carbon management perspective B. Relatively shorter-term carbon management perspective inside cities and regions Other activities in 2006/2007 Diagnostic approach Solution-seeking approach Earth System Science Partnership Regional development pathways and its implications on carbon (1) Carbon accounting (2) Analyzing proximate and underlying drivers (3) Evaluating trade-offs/synergies of integrating carbon mgmt in key urban issues (4) Studying opportunities for re-orienting institutions and incentive systems (5) Energy use from fossil fuel Holistic analyses Sectoral analyses Direct and embodied carbon emissions and sinks Energy choice Buildings Transport Pollution management Locally, at urban and regional levels Nationally International mechanisms and emerging climate regimes Holistic variables such as POETIC* Specific and focused variables such as lifestyle, population etc. Urban and regional development scenario and assessing its carbon consequences Land use changes Theme 3 Lead by Dhakal

  16. Social Networks & Urban/Regional Carbon Management • Power to Change & Power to Resist • Missing or Weak Clusters in Policy- • Making or Implementation • 3. Shared Values for Building Consensus • Creating Knowledge-Sharing Action • Clusters • Knitting Networks for Action • Stakeholder Networks, Worldview • Commitment to Decarbonized Future • Time & Place Stamps in Network Data • Computational Laboratories Theme 3 Lead by Canan

  17. Lessons from Implementing the Montreal Protocol for URCM • Technology & Economic Assessment Panel • Global Network of Industry, Government, Academia, NGOs • Fostered Collaboration • Can-Do Teams • Leadership • Linked Co-Benefits Theme 3 Lead by Canan

  18. Carbon Sequestration and Policy NIES • Science bases for carbon accounting rules in the Land Use and Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector for international negotiations. Including: • Deforestation Avoidance. • Factoring out direct from indirect human-induced influences on C sources and sinks. • One workshop every year associated with COP or SBSTA meetings. • Special Issue in Environmental Policy and Climate (in preparation). • Deforestation Avoidance (Policy Briefing, in preparation) Theme 3 Lead by Schlamadinger, Yamagata, Canadell

  19. GCP Wide: Program Developments

  20. Chinese English Nov. 2004 Oct. 2003 2004 Publications Russian Japanese March 2006 June 2005 [Exe.Sum.Only] 2003 2004 In press 2005 Project Wide

  21. Policy Briefing on Carbon (in preparation) To be published by the UNFCCC CoP 12 in Nairobi, November 2006 Example of Policy Briefing only Project Wide

  22. SSC Rotation Nominations: • Yi Qe, China • Antonio Nobre, Brazil • Guy Midgley, South Africa • Thomas Johansson, Sweden • Pierre Friedlingstein, France Invited: • Scot Doney, USA Rotate Off: • Mike Apps, Canada • Mingkui Cao, China • Bob Dickinson, USA • Chris Sabine, USA • Riccardo Valentini, Italy • Oran Young, USA Project Wide

  23. www.globalcarbonproject.org info@globalcarbonproject.org

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