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NRCS National Water and Climate Center Update Tom Pagano

NRCS National Water and Climate Center Update Tom Pagano Tom.Pagano@por.usda.gov 503 414 3010 Natural Resources Conservation Service. Graphical Products (GIS) Daily Update Guidance Forecasts. NRCS Webpage Circa 2001 until Sept 2006(!). Design principles Rich context in

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NRCS National Water and Climate Center Update Tom Pagano

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  1. NRCS National Water and Climate Center Update Tom Pagano Tom.Pagano@por.usda.gov 503 414 3010 Natural Resources Conservation Service

  2. Graphical Products (GIS) Daily Update Guidance Forecasts

  3. NRCS Webpage Circa 2001 until Sept 2006(!)

  4. Design principles Rich context in neutral colors Data emphasized without being ham-fisted Still usable in black and white Completely annotated NRCS Webpage 2007

  5. Snow

  6. Apr 1 2007

  7. Water Year Precipitation Percentile

  8. Combined NRCS/NWS plots (using ACIS data)

  9. Where to get maps: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/gis To get actual data files

  10. Daily Forecast Updates Currently, forecasts produced 1x per month using monthly data. With a simulation model (e.g. ESP) can be run more frequently but is resource intensive.

  11. Daily Forecast Updates Daily SNOTEL data exists for 20+ years. Statistical forecast techniques are cheap/easy. Why not develop 365 forecast equations/year?

  12. Daily Forecast Updates Daily SNOTEL data exists for 20+ years. Statistical forecast techniques are cheap/easy. Why not develop 365 forecast equations/year? Developed Excel application to calibrate daily forecasts (1.5 mins) and run them on a scheduler (10 sec)

  13. Automated logic of choosing predictors

  14. Three big problems in water supply forecasting: • Intercorrelated predictors • Varying periods of record • Missing realtime data

  15. Three big problems in water supply forecasting: • Intercorrelated predictors • Varying periods of record • Missing realtime data Z-Score Regression (Pagano 2004) Relative contribution of predictors Prevents compensating regression coefficients. Aggregates like predictors, emphasizing best ones. Does not require serial completeness. Pagano, T. C. 2004: My dissertation. University of Arizona, Tucson, Department of hydrology and water resources

  16. Period of record range (10,30,70,90 percentile) 1971-2000 avg Period of record median

  17. Period of record range (10,30,70,90 percentile) 1971-2000 avg Period of record median Official coordinated outlooks

  18. Daily Update Forecasts Period of record range (10,30,70,90 percentile) 1971-2000 avg Period of record median Official coordinated outlooks

  19. Official forecasts

  20. Expected skill Daily forecast 50% exceedence Official forecasts

  21. Calibration dataset of today’s equation Current forecast

  22. Sept 30

  23. Sept 30 May 1

  24. obs

  25. obs

  26. obs

  27. 6% avg error Courtesy Randal Wortman Army Corps

  28. http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ wsf/daily_forecasts.html If you want more forecasts in your area: Contact your NRCS Snow Survey Data Collection Officers and/or Water Supply Specialists

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