Adapting Water Resource Management to Climate Change Impacts

1. Adapting Water Resource Management to Climate Change Impacts Dr. Lee Tryhorn

2. Talk Outline • Overview of NYS ClimAID project • Evidence of a changing climate • Climate model predictions for NYS • Key vulnerabilities for NYS • Adaptations Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

3. Climate Risk Economics Equity and Environmental Justice Science-Policy Linkages Vulnerability Adaptation CLIMATE-PROTECTED NYS Reduced Vulnerability and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity

4. Water Sector Team • Rebecca Schneider (co-leader, Cornell) • Andrew McDonald (co-leader, Cornell) • Art DeGaetano (climate, Cornell) • Alan Frei (hydrology modeler, CUNY) • Susan Riha (Director, NYS WRI) • Steve Shaw (hydrologist, Cornell) • Lee Tryhorn (climate, Cornell) • Contact: Lee.Tryhorn@cornell.edu PIs: C. Rosensweig (Columbia), A. DeGaetano (Cornell), W. Solecki (CUNY)

5. Talk Outline • Overview of NYS ClimAID project • Evidence of a changing climate • Climate model predictions for NYS • Key vulnerabilities for NYS • Adaptations Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

6. Precipitation Increases Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

7. Decreases in snow cover Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

8. Increase in lake-effect snow

9. Talk Outline • Overview of NYS ClimAID project • Evidence of a changing climate • Climate model predictions for NYS • Key vulnerabilities for NYS • Adaptations Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

10. Future projections • Increased winter precipitation with more falling as rain. • Increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, coupled with the potential for more summer drought Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

11. Future projections Northeast Climate Impact Assessment, 2007 Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

12. Talk Outline • Overview of NYS ClimAID project • Evidence of a changing climate • Climate model predictions for NYS • Key vulnerabilities for NYS • Adaptations Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

13. Clinton Clinton Franklin Franklin Flood events per Flood events per St. Lawrence St. Lawrence county from county from Essex Essex 1994 1994 - - 2006 2006 Jefferson Jefferson (FEMA disaster designation) (FEMA disaster designation) Lewis Lewis Hamilton Hamilton Warren Warren Herkimer Herkimer Oswego Oswego Washington Washington Orleans Orleans Oneida Oneida Niagara Niagara Saratoga Saratoga Monroe Monroe Wayne Wayne Fulton Fulton Onondaga Onondaga Schenectady Schenectady Genesee Genesee Cayug Cayug Montg. Montg. Ontario Ontario Seneca Seneca Madison Madison a a Livingston Livingston Wyoming Wyoming Rensselaer Rensselaer Erie Erie Otsego Otsego Cortland Cortland Yates Yates Schohari Schohari Albany Albany Chenango Chenango Tompkins Tompkins Schuyler Schuyler e e Columbia Columbia Steuben Steuben Greene Greene Chautauqua Chautauqua Cattaraugus Cattaraugus Allegany Allegany Delaware Delaware Tioga Tioga Broome Broome Ulster Ulster Chemung Chemung Dutchess Dutchess 0x 0x Sullivan Sullivan 1x 1x Putnam Putnam Orange Orange 2x 2x Westchester Westchester 3x 3x Rockland Rockland 4x 4x Suffolk Suffolk 6x 6x NY City NY City 7x 7x Nassau Nassau Vulnerabilities: More flooding? In New York, flood damages were $54.8 million in 2006 Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

14. Vulnerabilities: More flooding? 1955 Hurricanes Diane & Connie 1984 5 consecutive days of moderate rain Ten-Mile Creek (Dutchess Ct.) Identified from 50 yr long USGS discharge record

15. Vulnerabilities longer growing season less snow / more rain larger storm rainfall amounts more ET/ drier soils ? + + + = Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

16. Vulnerabilities: Design criteria Central Park 1940 - 1960 1970-2006 2-yr 3.10 3.86 50-yr 6.21 7.31 100-yr 7.22 8.39 Ithaca 2-yr 2.43 2.49 50-yr 4.46 5.73 100-yr 5.08 6.86 Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

17. Combined Sewer Overflows (CSOs) • already occur with rainfall > 1”/hr • 24 billion gallons untreated sewage/yr enter Great Lakes (Sierra Legal rpt 12/06)

18. Vulnerabilities: Short-term droughts • Increased frequency of short-terms droughts • Impacts on crops, livestock, reservoirs, and municipal well supplies. 2.9 million acres of agricultural land in NY (NASS, 2006) $ 3.1 billion value of agricultural products (NASS, 2006) Approximately 2.5% of NY agricultural land is irrigated (NASS, 2002). Drought is already a significant production constraint in many years.

19. Vulnerabilities: Sea-level rise • Sea level rise with shoreline flooding, salt water intrusion and groundwater degradation in New York’s coastal areas. Three million people on Long Island are dependent on groundwater resources

20. Talk Outline • Overview of NYS ClimAID project • Evidence of a changing climate • Climate model predictions for NYS • Key vulnerabilities for NYS • Adaptations Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

21. Dealing with climate change through adaptation • Proactive management • Anticipating challenges and building resilience GOOD NEWS! New York has a wealth of water resources! Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

22. NYS Water Resources • 40 inches of average annual precipitation • 1,236 sq. miles of lakes, ponds, & reservoirs • 577 miles of Great Lakes shoreline • 52,337 miles of rivers and streams • 1,530 sq. miles of estuaries, bays, and harbors • 3,750 sq. miles of freshwater wetlands • Extensive groundwater resources Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

23. Multiple Scales of Adaptation • Local – Context specific adaptation strategies • Regional – Leadership • Statewide government role • National context for planning and policy Temporal scale: <10 yrs, 10-40 yrs, +40yrs Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

24. Local • Increase monitoring for water supply 2. Engage volunteer groups and private citizens to multiply agency efforts in monitoring and management. Give them training and tools. 3. Water quality: • Disconnect existing CSOs • Update manure spreading practices • Require septic system maintenance 4. Phased withdrawal from high-flood risk, floodplain areas • Conduct buy-outs after floods • Move wastewater treatment plants • Transfer land to public parks Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

25. Regional strategies • Lead short, long-term planning tailored to the region • Prioritize climate change issues and needs • Planning documents will be key to access funds for implementation as they become available via Federal Stimulus/ other. • Identify a centrally-located lead office to share resources, expertise, demonstration sites with surrounding region • Organize monitoring networks and data collection • E.g. water supply, floods, droughts. • Organize rapid response plan and team Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

26. State Gov Role • Mainstream climate change into all planning and regulations – update to reflect most recent climate data • Funnel state and federal funds to implement projects • Institutionalize mechanisms for long-term monitoring and centralized data collection • Provide guidance and technical training • Identify and alleviate bottlenecks inhibiting adoption • Develop criteria for prioritization in face of limiting resources (e.g. vulnerability, ecosystem value, economics.) • Support targeted research Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

27. A National context... Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

28. Greater political and economic pressure for inter-basin water transfers to water-stressed regions, both nationally and internationally? The Great Lakes Basin contains 95% of the fresh surface waters in North America and 20% of the freshwater globally. Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

29. Adaptation planning in a national context • Pro-active planning of a statewide water program, including water conservation practices and pricing controls to manage during droughts, or export .

30. Questions? Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences