Towards A Methodology For Agent Based Social Simulation Research (Research-in-Progress)

1. AGENTLINK, February 3-4 2003, Barcelona, Spain Towards A Methodology For Agent Based Social Simulation Research(Research-in-Progress) By: A.M. Ramanath and N. Gilbert (University of Surrey, UK) ABSS+MSEAS MEETING

2. AGENDA • “Quick Introductions” • Introduction • Computer-based Simulation as a Research Method • Multi-agents as a Social Simulation Research Stream • Current Approaches to Multi-agent Model Building and Evaluation • Lessons from Previous Multi-agent Based Social Simulation Projects • Methods derived from Software Engineering • Methods for Stakeholder Exploration/Evaluation from Social Sciences • One Suggested Approach to MABS • Conclusions ABSS+MSEAS MEETING

3. Information Engineering Background • Industry • PhD • Research interests • Research Fellow “QUICK INTRODUCTIONS”

4. SimWeb …will provide European businesses in the digital contents sector with insights and tools which will enable them to take informed business strategy decisions and become more competitive by adapting their traditional business models to the new, demanding reality…(www.simdigital.com) (Partners: University of Surrey, CIMNE, iSOCO, Universität Koblenz-Landau, Publico.pt, FNAC) INTRODUCTION

5. - Research Question (s)/ Problems; - Literature Reviews - Observations Model Conceptualisation Model Design Build / Implementation Verification Validation/Analysis Publication of Results Simulation Results Replication Generic Stages in Simulation Research Process“A third way of doing science” Common Pitfalls: (from Thesen & Travis, 1995) Objectives Failure Unanswerable Questions Inappropriate Complexity Bad Assumptions in Model Misinterpretation of Outputs Budget & Time overruns A Process where “quality” and “productivity” matter…. COMPUTER-BASED SIMULATION AS A RESEARCH METHOD

6. Subtle difference between MAS and MABS:“…If the MAS field can be characterised as the study of [or implementation of] societies of artificial autonomous agents, agent-based social simulation can be defined as the study of artificial societies of autonomous agents” (Conte et al. 1998, page 3). Common Constructs: cognition, behaviour, emergence, second-order emergence, flexibility, decentralisation, beliefs, desires, intentions, self-organisation, robustness,intelligence, and complexity,to name but a few… MULTI-AGENTS AS A SOCIAL SIMULATION RESEARCH STREAM

7. “More efforts are needed on how to do MAS and MABS” For MABS in particular: …further Research is needed in 3 Areas... 1) Lessons from Previous MABS Projects (from: MABS literature) 2) Advances in the Neighbouring Field of Software Engineering (from: S. E. Approaches / Methodologies Research and Practice) • Effective Stakeholder Involvement (from: scientific advances in the social sciences) CURRENT APPROACHES TO MULTI-AGENT MODEL BUILDING & EVALUATION

8. Considerations derived from the review of these studies: - Generic - Conceptualisation/Design - Build/Verification - Evaluation/Publication iteration, collaboration, exploration (Key Aspects Expected In MABS Approaches & Techniques) LESSONS FROM PREVIOUS MABS PROJECTS

9. “Methodology or Not Methodology?” Problems that remain (in S.E.) despite Methodologies…. “Quality”(the capacity of systems/software to meet stated requirements) “Productivity”( the completion of systems/software on time and on budget) (from Tudor & Tudor, 1995) METHODS DERIVED FROM SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

10. Analysis - Research Question (s)/ Problems; - Literature Reviews - Observations Design Development Model Conceptualisation Testing Model Design Implementation Maintenance Build / Implementation Verification Validation/Analysis Publication of Results Simulation Results Replication Some Known Methods: SSADM PSP/ CMM RAD RUP XP etc……. More recently move towards “Agility”, “Speed”; “Productivity”… Software Life Cycle (Universalparadigm (dates back to1930’s “systems theory”; 1940’s “cybernetics” and reductionist approaches during “WWII”…) METHODS DERIVED FROM SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

11. RUP(Rational Unified Process)“Heavyweight title”versus“Lightweight title”XP(Extreme Programming) METHODS DERIVED FROM SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

12. Two Particularly Relevant: Scenario Analysis and Participatory Modelling Mapping out diversity Policy Exercises Focus Groups Scenario Analysis Participatory Modelling Advising Democratisation Participatory Planning Citizen Juries Consensus Conferences Reaching Consensus (from van Asselt et al. 2001) METHODS FOR STAKEHOLDER EXPLORATION / EVALUATION FROM SOCIAL SCIENCES

13. AN APPROACH TO MODEL BUILDING AND EVALUATION

14. Research questions/ Observations/Literature Some Suggested Techniques: ∙Brainstorming ∙Scenario Workshops ∙JRP Workshops ∙Stakeholder Interviews ∙Prototyping ∙User Stories ∙Use-case Modelling etc. Conceptualisation ∙User Requirements ∙Key Features ∙Constraints ∙Evaluation Criteria Performance/ Usability Prototypes ∙User Co-design ∙JAD Workshops ∙Prototyping ∙Use-case Modelling etc. Design Pilot Models/ Components Library ∙Functional Design ∙Technical Design ∙Unit, System & User Test Cases ∙Prototyping ∙Paired Programming etc. Construction & Verification Preliminary Models/Tools ∙Test Results ∙Tech/User Documentation ∙Brainstorming ∙Scenario Workshops ∙User Panels etc. Evaluation & Validation Enhanced Models ∙User Feedback ∙ Publications End of Project AN APPROACH TO MODEL BUILDING AND EVALUATION

15. (A conversation said to have taken place between GM executives and Bill Gates of Microsoft, where Gates compared GM and Microsoft’s achievements as follows): “…If automotive technology had kept pace with computer technology over the past few decades, you would now be driving a V-32 instead of a V-8, and it would have a top speed of 10,000 miles per hour. Or you could have an economy car that weighs 30lbs and gets a thousand miles to a gallon of petrol. In either case the sticker price of a new car would be less than $50’. GM responded: ‘Yes, but would you really want to drive a car that crashes twice a day?…” (Computer Weekly, 12/06/97). CONCLUSIONS