Regional Issues Facing Colorado and Other Western States

1. Regional Issues Facing Colorado and Other Western States WESTAR Spring Business Meeting Denver, Colorado March 30, 2010 Paul Tourangeau Director Colorado Air Pollution Control Division

2. Colorado Issues • Share a border with 7 states • 2 tribes • 12 Class I National parks/wilderness areas • Resources including minerals, forests, oil & gas fields, oil shale, concentrated economic activities/population • NAA for 8-Hour ozone, 9 Counties (1997 standard) • Adjacent activities…growing oil & gas in NM, UT, WY…wintertime ozone in WY and UT

3. Denver Metro Population/VMT Increase Timeline

4. Oil and Gas in the Region Many oil and gas reserves/areas in the WESTAR region

5. Historically, Problems Solved by Controlling Local (Colorado) Sources • Historically, have had 17 non-attainment areas for various pollutants, and came into attainment with each one by 2002….PM10, 1-Hour O3, CO, NO2, Pb • Local strategies have been effective at bringing areas of Colorado into attainment • E.g., wood stove bans/wood burning restrictions, street sweeping, oxygenated fuels, scrubbers on power plants, vehicle inspection/maintenance, federal Tier II vehicle standards

6. Current Era – PM and Colorado • PM2.5 is presently not a problem for Colorado, and don’t expect it to be, unless NAAQS are lowered • Only close area is Grand Junction due to deep winter inversions • No monitoring sites in western Colorado to understand transport into CO • EPA has moved up the NAAQS PM review dates: • Propose revised NAAQS in November 2010 • Final NAAQS revisions to be promulgated in July 2011

7. Air Quality Snapshot Fine Particulate Matter (PM-2.5) • 1997: new annual and 24-hour standard established • 2006: standards tightened • Basis for Trend: Same as PM-10 • Region continues to be in compliance

8. Current Era – O3 and Colorado • Denver metro area and Front Range region has a long history with ozone nonattainment • Starting with the old 1-hour standard, Denver metro violated standard in the 1980’s and was redesignated attainment in 2001 • Denver/Front Range region exceeded 1997 8-hour standard in early 2000’s, entered into an Early Action Compact to quickly address problems and avoid nonattainment • Numerous controls adopted and implemented, especially O&G measures never before deployed in Colorado • Area could not reach attainment by end of 2007 (1 ppb short at one monitoring site), so designated nonattainment in November 2007 • Revised Ozone Action Plan adopted in 2008 and sent to EPA • Additional O&G, stationary and mobile source controls adopted • EPA’s revised 8-hour standard of 75 ppb, and EPA’s proposed primary and secondary standards, will likely bring in more areas of the state • New measures will be necessary for areas and industries never regulated before

11. The Ozone ChallengeTrends and StatusDenver Metro/North Front Range Monitored Data “Ozone is not getting worse. It’s been improving since 2006 when ozone controls took effect”

12. Modeling ResultsExample: Ozone Apportionment Modeling Results for the Rocky Flats Monitoring Site • Charts represent modeling results at one monitor (Rocky Flats North) on one day. • Chart on left represents total modeled ozone including ozone (pink) transported into the area • Chart on right illustrates local ozone  EGU, nonroad and motor vehicles the largest contributors to ozone at the Rocky Flats site

13. Modeling ResultsExample: Ozone Apportionment Modeling Results for the Ft. Collins West Monitoring Site • Charts represent modeling results at one monitor (Ft. Collins West) on one day. • Chart on left represents total modeled ozone including ozone (pink) transported into the area • Chart on right illustrates local ozone  O & G and vehicles the largest contributors to ozone at the Fort Collins West site

14. The Current 75 ppb Standard

15. A Possible 70 ppb Standard Using 2007-2009 data, no change outside of North Front Range area from 75 ppb. (2006-2008 data showed Manitou Springs and Mesa Verde to be in non-attainment.)

16. A Possible 65 ppb Standard Statewide problem with ozone if NAAQS set at 65 ppb.

17. Current Era – Boundary/Transport Information • As standards are lowered, transport is becoming more and more important • Haze has brought western states together for many years • Ozone and PM2.5 planning will add additional challenges and require multi-state coordination

18. Satellite Imagery of NO2

19. Transport – Smoke from Wildfires Note: Long-range transport of smoke into CO from fires in UT, AZ and NM. Transport of smoke from CO fires into WY and NE.

20. Transport – Blowing Dust Note: Long-range transport of blowing dust from the Painted Desert area in AZ going through the Four Corners area on 4/3/2009. PM10 exceedances were recorded in western CO on this day.

21. Current Era – Legal and Administrative Considerations • 110 SIP requirements for Non-Attainment Areas • 110(a)(2)(d) SIP requirements for interstate transport (demonstrations, possible measures) • Cross-border Non-Attainment Areas [[4 Corners, SoCal and SW Az, Sacto/Reno, etc.??) • 126 petitions • NEPA EISs on federal lands for energy development in broad areas…??? • EPA funding for western studies and strategies under draft 2011 Grant Guidance…western O3??? • RPO…WESTAR…coordination???