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Beyond Bathtub: Modeling and Responding to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change

Beyond Bathtub: Modeling and Responding to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change. December 19, 2012 Sea Level Rise Guidance Resources Tom Kendall, USACE. EC 1165-2-212 - Incorporating Sea Level Change Considerations in Civil Works Programs.

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Beyond Bathtub: Modeling and Responding to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change

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  1. Beyond Bathtub: Modeling and Responding to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change December 19, 2012 Sea Level Rise Guidance Resources Tom Kendall, USACE

  2. EC 1165-2-212 - Incorporating Sea Level Change Considerations in Civil Works Programs • Three estimates of future SLC must be calculated for all Civil Works Projects within the extent of estimated tidal influence: • Low – Extrapolated • Intermediate-Modified NRC I Curve • High - Modified NRC III Curve • Current guidance does not assign a probability to each curve. • Scenario-based approach required (Everest International, 2009) 1.5m 0.60 0.45 0.30 0.15 0.00 0.15 0.30 0.45 0.60 La Jolla, CA 2.07 +/- 0.29 mm/yr .5m .2m The USACE sea-level change curve calculator (3 scenarios) can be reached at http://corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm

  3. Comparison of Peer-Reviewed Research Estimates: GLOBAL Sea Level Rise by 2100 reasonable upper limit = 2 m SLC TL team member: Steve Gill, NOAA

  4. NRC 2012 Global Projections Confidence in the projections is high for 2030 and perhaps 2050 , but by 2100 we are confident only that the value will fall within the uncertainty bounds

  5. US National Climate Assessment 2012 Global Mean Sea Level Rise Scenarios NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO-1 (Parris et al, 2012)

  6. The Corps’ Overall Strategy • Scope work according to sensitivity of conditions (decision metrics) to SLC; what are the consequences of “wrong” assumptions; • Think in terms of life-cycle; when are best times to act; what are the appropriate signals • Formulate array of alternatives with consideration of timing of actions • Seek robust plans that perform well under all scenarios • Display cost-risk trade-offs • Communicate residual risks

  7. Possible Planning Approach:Phased Investment Strategy

  8. Alternatives Development & Selection • Good scenario-based planning should consider: • Adaptive Management • Facilitating Future Modifications • Designing for the Future Example of Least Regrets Approach

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