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Comparing mitigation efforts between Annex 1 Parties Initial results (excl. LULUCF)

Comparing mitigation efforts between Annex 1 Parties Initial results (excl. LULUCF). Fabian Wagner International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Overview:. Marginal cost and total costs Sensitivity to Interest rate Energy Prices Co-benefits Conclusions.

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Comparing mitigation efforts between Annex 1 Parties Initial results (excl. LULUCF)

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  1. Comparing mitigation efforts between Annex 1 PartiesInitial results (excl. LULUCF) Fabian Wagner International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

  2. Overview: Marginal cost and total costs Sensitivity to Interest rate Energy Prices Co-benefits Conclusions

  3. Baseline GHG emissions projections Analysis not completed yet for: Belarus, Croatia,Turkey, Cyprus, Malta

  4. Annex I - 2020marginal abatement cost curve Eur/tCO2eq +7% +2% -3% -10% -13% Rel. to 2005 200 100 0 -100 -200 +3% -2% -7% -13% -17% Rel. to1990 Annex I 2020 Interest rate: 20%

  5. Resulting total mitigation costs: Annex 1 in 2020 Interest rate: 20%

  6. Marginal cost curves for individual Parties Japan EU27 United States of America Norway Interest rate: 20%

  7. Total cost curves for individual Parties

  8. Total cost curves for individual Parties

  9. Total cost curves for individual Parties

  10. Sensitivity analyses • Alternative interest rates • Alternative oil prices • Baseline activity projections

  11. Marginal costs for different interest ratesAnnex 1, 2020, excl. LULUCF 200 130 -20% emissions -20% emissions Interest rate 20% Interest rate 4%

  12. Total costs for different interest ratesAnnex 1, 2020, excl. LULUCF

  13. Total cost curves for individual Parties Annex I 2020 Interest rate: 20%

  14. Emissions for individual Parties at zero total cost -15% -3.5% Interest rate Emissions relative to 1990

  15. Emissions for individual Parties at zero total cost Interest rate Emissions relative to 1990

  16. Sensitivity to energy prices Annex I 2020 Interest rate: 20%

  17. Co-control of air pollutant emissions Annex I 2020 Interest rate: 20%

  18. Conclusions Significant differences in mitigation potentials between countries Interest rate is important for costing, but does not change rank orderbetween Parties Considerable mitigation potential (-15%) fromnegative cost measures for a 4% interest rate. In 2020, a 20% GHG reduction relative to 1990 for Annex 1 can be achieved at a marginal cost of 130 €/t CO2eq (at 4% interest rate) 200 €/t CO2eq (at 20% interest rate)

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