GIFS-TIGGE-10 Meeting: Consolidating Research and Planning for the Future

1. General Slides for GIFS-TIGGE-10 meeting Richard Swinbank GIFS-TIGGE WG, June 2012

2. AGENDA • Organisation of the meeting • Report and actions from previous meetings • TIGGE archive • Research using TIGGE data • SWFDP • Tropical Cyclones • Rainfall & Gridded Products • Links with other THORPEX & WWRP groups • Future plans • GEO • Membership / AOB / Review actions • Mini-workshop on EPS developments

3. Aims of the meeting • In a sense, the aims of the meeting are to consolidate and complete current work, and to look forward to the future after 2014. • Two key aspects of the legacy of GIFS-TIGGE • The database, established, extending in time – real success. A key emphasis is to foster ongoing & expanding scientific research using TIGGE data. • GIFS products founded on TIGGE product – our focus needs to be on development, demonstration and evaluation. (Then CBS responsibility for operational implementation). Aim to progress the collaboration with SWFDP, starting to add GIFS products onto SWFDP website(s) this year. • Another key focus of this meeting is to look ahead to post-THORPEX arrangements; how might GIFS & TIGGE continue beyond 2014

4. 2.3 Outcome of ICSC & EC meetings • Key points • Legacy – Earth system initiative, wider than just meteorology (??), including new projects (subseasonal, polar) and best bits of THORPEX • 3 options proposed by EC meeting: • A) THORPEX ends Dec 2014, just DAOS continues • B) THORPEX continues for 5-10 years • C) New 10-year programme, new trust fund & IPO • EC prefers option C, but initiated discussion of options

5. 2.4 WWRP/JSC5 & later • Beth Ebert asked about focus groups – revisit at this meeting. • Legacy: “Option D” suggested – “a la carte” approach, i.e., NHMSs support projects selectively. • Input on legacy requested from THORPEX stakeholders, including working groups. • Actions • (from JSC4) TIGGE Review Paper • ICSC recommended to link TIGGE-LAM with Mesoscale group • Input from stakeholders invited on proposal for THORPEX follow-on

6. 2.5 Outcome of SWFDP SG • Attended by Young-Youn Park on behalf of WG • YYP gave presentation on GIFS-TIGGE and TC products and (MRI) prototype products. • Main concern raised by PSG was delay in production time, needs to be reduced to enhance operational utility. • PSG also raised concerns about complexity of information – need to present only the best (most useful) products. • Questionnaire already prepared by MRI on TC products • More general questionnaire needed.

7. 2.6 Africa RC meeting • Main focus of Africa RC over rest of THORPEX is write-up of 4 case studies • Floods in E&C Africa Oct 1997(!) – and/or more recent dates (Oct/Dec 2011, Apr/May 2012) • Floods in Southern Africa Nov 2008 • Floods in Morocco (Nov 2010) • Floods in Sahel (Aug-Sep 2009) • All case studies on AfClix website (can register and “follow” each case study. • DAOS & GIFS-TIGGE to assist this work; also liaise with SWFDP where relevant • Aim to complete and publish case studies by end of THORPEX period.

8. 5.2 Questionnaire on Severe Weather Products • MRI questionnaire produced some time ago, but focused specifically on TC products on MRI website. • More general GIFS-TIGGE questionnaire on current usage of severe weather products & requirements was delayed for various reasons, only sent out to SWFDP regional centres in mid-June. • No immediate feedback received yet. • Requested that questionnaires be returned by end July, if possible.

9. 5.3 Plan for Introduction of GIFS products to SWFDP & evaluation Background: • Research using TIGGE data has demonstrated increase forecast skill for multi-model grand ensemble over single-model ensemble, e.g. • Surface air temperature (Johnson, Hagedorn) • Precipitation (Hamill, Flowerdew) • TC tracks (Yamaguchi) • Focus on GIFS product development should be on multi-model products, using leading TIGGE ensembles • Though there is also scope for innovative products based on single model ensembles

10. 5.3 Plan for Introduction of GIFS products to SWFDP & evaluation • Develop initial products for SWFDP, with help of GEOWOW funding: • Multi-model ensemble versions of ensemble TC track forecast products • Later developments • Selected near real-time versions of MRI ensemble severe weather products • Priorities for development influenced by questionnaire responses • Supply products to SWFDP regional websites • Provide training on GIFS products & their evaluation via SWFDP • Draw on expertise from Verification WG for help in evaluation (e.g. report on TC verification)

11. 5.5 Possible Development of real-time versions of gridded products • Proposal resulting from meeting between RS, Ken Mylne, Mio Matsueda – see separate document. • Products all based on data extracted from ECMWF TIGGE archive at 1.25° resolution • Pre-calculated climatological percentiles for each EPS. • Warning maps based on translating latest global forecasts into percentiles & plotting regional maps. • Last step is reasonably fast, and could be done at (e.g.) Met Office or ECMWF, with maps transferred to SWFDP regional websites. • EPS data could be obtained direct from providers, or from TIGGE archive as soon as available to minimise delays.

12. 5.5 Real-time versions of gridded products - Issues • Technical feasibility • seems OK • Data policy issues • within current SWFDP commitments, for current participants? • or possible need to have specific SWFDP exception to 48-hour rule? • Wider use of the products in near real time for other projects may be more problematic.

13. 6.2 Tropical Cyclone Formation and Early Track FDP • Draft proposal from Russ Elsberry (NPS), circulated by Tetsuo Nakazawa earlier this year • Analyse formation of vortices in forecasts & local environment influencing TC development • Includes • Short-range (primarily deterministic) • Medium-range (TIGGE) • 15-30 days (ECMWF VarEPS) • Now subsumed into TLFDP & NWP TCEFP?

14. 8.4 Sub-seasonal to seasonal project • Key issue – conversion to NETCDF important for both S2S and TIGGE

15. 8.4 Polar project • Year of Polar Prediction – how could GIFS-TIGGE contribute? • Application of GIFS-TIGGE products / metrics to polar regions? (e.g. Mio’s plots) • Interest in sea-ice and snow – but do all models used prescribed sea ice? • Research Goal (ensemble forecasting): Develop and exploit ensemble prediction systems with appropriate representation of initial and model uncertainty for polar regions • Assess performance of existing EPSs and LAM-EPSs in polar regions • Improve initial perturbation methods for the atmosphere • Develop initial perturbation methods for sea ice, ocean and land surface models • Develop methods to account for model uncertainty • Monitor probabilistic prediction skill of high-impact weather and climate events in polar regions

16. 9 After THORPEX • Paper on possible post-THORPEX arrangements to be discussed at ICSC-10. • Sets out broad options, and requests input from THORPEX stakeholders by mid-July. • 3 options (drastically summarised): • A) THORPEX ends Dec 2014, just DAOS continues • B) THORPEX continues for ~5 years • C) New 10-year programme, new trust fund & IPO (C preferred provided there is sufficient support for trust fund, but a lot of details need to be resolved) • Stakeholders include NHMSs and THORPEX working groups. It would be in our interest to submit a 1-pager to set out our point of view.

17. 9 After THORPEX • One suggested approach is that there could be a combination of ongoing science working groups (as part of a reorganised WWRP), and a number of time-limited projects (funded by new trust fund(s)). • Consensus that DAOS should be carried on under WWRP. • Suggested that there should also be a Dynamics, Predictability & Ensembles WG. • Projects could include • Subseasonal to Seasonal prediction • Polar Prediction • TIGGE continuation,... • Relationship between WGs and projects? Matrix management? • Discuss!

18. Mini-Workshop on EPS Developments 1400 GIFS-TIGGE introduction (Richard Swinbank) 1415 Ensemble DTC introduction (Brian Etherton) 1430 The new NCEP Hybrid Ensemble Kalman Filter / 3-D Variational Data Assimilation System (Jeff Whitaker) 1450 A new configuration of the Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Canadian Global Ensemble Prediction System (Laurie Wilson) 1510 A Comparison of Ensemble Perturbations Generated by Breeding and Ensemble Kalman Filter Schemes (Yuejian Zhu) 1530 Break 1600 A Comparative Evaluation of NCEP and ECMWF Methods for Estimating Model Uncertainty (Philip Pegion) 1620 Ensemble prediction system at Japan Meteorological Agency (Masayuki KYOUDA) 1640 Recent developments on ensemble prediction at CPTEC aimed to improve overall skill (Christopher Cunningham) 1700 Developments to the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (Richard Swinbank) 1720 General Discussion 1745 Close