NSTA Web Seminar: Earth Then, Earth Now: Our Changing Climate Climate Change Jeopardy

1. LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP NSTA Web Seminar: Earth Then, Earth Now: Our Changing Climate Climate Change Jeopardy Presented by Dr. Mike Winton, NOAA Tuesday, March 31, 2009

2. Climate Change Jeopardy Host: Mike Winton of NOAA/GFDL 31 March 2009

3. The categories are • Observations of change • Basic greenhouse physics • Climate models & what they tell us • Climate change options

4. The earth’s surface is warming GISS Temperature

5. The heat that has warmed our climate did not come out of the ocean IPCC

6. Ice is declining globally • Both Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice • Glaciers are retreating globally • Northern hemisphere snow cover has declined • Northern hemisphere sea ice cover is declining • Southern hemisphere sea ice cover is not declining

7. Sea level is rising (ice melt + seawater expansion) IPCC

8. Earth’s energy balance is the key to long-term climate change IPCC

9. Without the greenhouse effect the earth’s climate would be … • The same • A wee bit cooler • Like the ice ages • Like a big ice ball

10. Without the greenhouse effect the earth’s climate would be … • The same • A wee bit cooler • Like the ice ages • Like a big ice ball

11. The most important greenhouse gas is? • N2 (78 % of the atmosphere) • O2 (21 % of the atmosphere) • H20 (<1 % of the atmosphere) • CO2 (0.038 % of the atmosphere)

12. The most important greenhouse gas is? • N2 (78 % of the atmosphere) • O2 (21 % of the atmosphere) • H20 (<1 % of the atmosphere) • CO2 (0.038 % of the atmosphere) Water vapor is a climate feedback

13. Atmospheric CO2 is increasing Global Warming Art

14. Atmospheric CO2 was stable prior to the 19th century IPCC

15. The CO2 increase is anthropogenic CDIAC

16. We are perturbing the Global carbon cycle IPCC

17. Atmospheric carbon has a range of timescales from short to very, very long Global Warming Art

18. Our greenhouse gas emissions have changed the heat budget of the entire earth by? • About 0.01 % • About 0.1 % • About 1 % • About 10 %

19. Our greenhouse gas emissions have changed the heat budget of the entire earth by: • about 0.01 % • about 0.1 % • about 1 % • about 10 %

20. There are numerous anthropogenic forcings of climate change IPCC

21. We need global climate models to help us sort this out but they are … • Somewhat credible because they are based on fundamental physical and chemical principles • Not completely reliable since they have significant disagreement with each other • Both • Neither

22. We need global climate models to help us sort this out but they are … • Somewhat credible because they are based on fundamental physical and chemical principles • Not completely reliable since they have significant disagreement with each other • Both • Neither

23. What is a global climate model? A GCM is a mathematical representation of the major climate system components and their interactions. The GCM equations operate on a global grid and are solved on a computer. Atmosphere Land Ocean Ice Physical CM Concentrations of radiatively active species Emissions of radiatively active species ESM* *Earth System Model

24. Climate model equations are solved on global grids

25. Simulated vs. Parameterized • Simulated processes: larger than grid-scale, based on bedrock scientific principles (conservation of energy, mass and momentum). Example: storms. • Parameterized processes: smaller than grid scale, formulations guided by physical principles but also make use of observational data. Example: clouds.

26. Detection and attribution of climate change using models (2) Attribution: anthropogenic forcing is that “something” (1) Detection: something beyond natural variability is happening to the global climate IPCC

27. Detection and attribution at the continental scale

28. Climate models need emissions to project future climate change IPCC

29. Projection: 21st century global temperature rises further IPCC

30. The hydrologic cycle intensifies

31. Sea level rises further IPCC Caveat: ice sheet dynamic response not fully modeled

32. Global warming impacts Option 1: Adapt IPCC

33. Option 2: Mitigation stabilize carbon emissions Socolow, Scientific American 2006 • Conserve energy or produce it more efficiently • Use alternative energy: solar, wind, bio, nuclear • Sequester carbon

34. Emissions growth has powerful socio-economic drivers IPCC

35. Emissions growth has powerful socio-economic drivers Rich emission level Pop. increases The Rest Become Rich The Rich Emissions per capita The Rest Population

36. If we stopped emitting greenhouse gasses the earth would cool back down in? • 1 year • 10 years • 100 years • 1000 years or longer

37. If we stopped emitting greenhouse gasses the earth would cool back down in • 1 year • 10 years • 100 years • 1000 years or longer

38. Even if emissions were cut to zero, temperature would fall very slowly Solomon S. et.al. PNAS 2009;106:1704-1709

39. There are three options: • Mitigation – reduce carbon emissions • Adaptation – adjust to climate change as best we can • Geoengineering (e.g. continuously inject reflective aerosols into stratosphere) • What option(s) are best • Mitigation • Adaptation • Mitigation and adaptation, not geoengineering • Adaptation and geoengineering, not mitigation

40. Summary: Climate change jeopardy is a high stakes game with uncertain odds Basic greenhouse physics CO2 increase anthropogenic Earth is warming Warming is anthropogenic Future carbon emissions Future climate change Impacts of future climate change More certain Less certain

41. Special Thanks to NOAA, SRS and USFS for sponsoring this Web Seminar!

42. http://www.elluminate.com

43. NLC screenshot http://learningcenter.nsta.org

44. National Science Teachers Association Dr. Francis Q. Eberle, Executive Director Zipporah Miller, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-Learning NSTA Web Seminars Paul Tingler, Director Jeff Layman, Technical Coordinator