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School Portfolio Management Attendance Boundary Adjustment Recommendations

School Portfolio Management Attendance Boundary Adjustment Recommendations. December 12, 2007. School Portfolio Management. Coherent Governance Policy OE 12.5 Hillcrest III. Middle School Boundaries Appendix: Hillcrest Analysis. - 1 -.

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School Portfolio Management Attendance Boundary Adjustment Recommendations

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  1. School Portfolio Management Attendance Boundary Adjustment Recommendations December 12, 2007

  2. School Portfolio Management • Coherent Governance Policy OE 12.5 • Hillcrest • III. Middle School Boundaries • Appendix: Hillcrest Analysis - 1 -

  3. Coherent Governance Policy (Operational Expectation OE-12) • The Chief Executive Officer shall assure the availability of a diverse portfolio of high quality schools (traditional, new small schools, charter schools, etc) for students and families both within neighborhoods and district-wide • The Chief Executive Officer shall: • Assure that all district quality standards apply equally to all schools regardless of size and type • Regularly monitor all schools to assure their cost-effectiveness and compliance with quality standards • Assure the sustainability of all schools and programs, especially in a declining revenue environment • Create meaningful partnerships between district and charter schools that improve the conditions for both and that enhance choices for students and their families • Review school attendance boundaries annually to assure reasonable balance in student enrollment School Portfolio Management Framework • As per Board policy, this presentation specifically makes recommendations regarding Operational Expectation 12.5 • The adjustments presented herein are a recommendation to right size boundaries which will ensure families have access to neighborhood schools. - 2 -

  4. Hillcrest: Solution for Overcrowding - 3 - * More detailed analysis can be found in Appendix

  5. Hillcrest: Recommended Boundary Adjustment • Portion re-districted to MONTCLAIR recommended to be drawn along: • Hilltop, Harbord, Sheridan • Estimated number of Kindergarten students impacted: 5-15 • Portion re-districted to CHABOT recommended to be drawn along: • Broadway Terrace • Estimated number of Kindergarten students impacted: 5-15 - 4 -

  6. Adjustment of Middle School Boundaries - 5 -

  7. Adjustment of Middle School Boundaries • The map below represents the recommended new middle school attendance boundaries (for example, the recommended new North Oakland boundary is BLUE) • Regions with annotated streets represent the areas which are proposed to be moved [Insert picture of boundary changes with exact streets] - 6 -

  8. Summary of Recommendations and Next Steps - 7 -

  9. Board of Education: Next Steps - 8 -

  10. Appendix:Hillcrest Analysis - 9 -

  11. Defining and Measuring Grade Progressions • A grade progression measures the change in the number of students from one year to the next • This year’s Kindergartners become next year’s first graders and the following year’s second graders and so on. • EXAMPLE: In 2004, 38 Hillcrest Kindergartners were enrolled. In 2005, 32 1st graders were enrolled. • The K to 1st (K>1) grade progression between 2004 and 2005 was 84.2% • 15.8% of the students left between K and 1st grade from 2004 to 2005 • ` 2004: 38 2005: 32 - 10 -

  12. Factors Considered in for the Scenario Models • The standard Grade Progression Model (also referred to as Attrition Rate Model) is used to forecast future Hillcrest enrollment • Several Grade Progressions (GP’s) were considered • Using GP’s from a particular year • Average GP’s from the last 2 years • Average GP’s from the last 3 years • Average GP’s from the last 5 years • Maximum GP’s of the last 2, 3, 5 years • ** Both OUSD and LRPC’s analysis indicate that grade progressions in recent years are significantly higher than in the past ** - 11 -

  13. LRPC Scenario 1 (Table S-4 in report) • Scenario 1 presented by the LRPC assumes 40 future incoming K students with no change to the middle school. This scenario forecasts a slight increase of students until the year 2011, before reaching a steady state of the optimal 310 students • Challenges to Scenario: • As the LRPC has noted, attrition rates have declined significantly in recent years. The attrition rates used in this model are lower than attrition rates that were actually experienced between 2006 and 2007 • Most notably, the LRPC is utilizing an average grade progression of 80.2% between 5th and 6th grade whereas the actual grade progression between 2006 and 2007 was 93.1% - 12 -

  14. LRPC Scenario 2 (Table S-5 in report) • Scenario 2 presented by the LRPC assumes 40 future incoming K students with no change to the middle school. This model forecasts a continued increase in enrollment over the next 6 years • The attrition rates used in this model are more realistic and more accurately reflect current attrition rates • Challenges to Scenario: • Hillcrest school does not have the facilities capacity to house this number of students - 13 -

  15. How Grade Progressions were Determined • Medium Scenario uses grade progressions we feel most accurately reflects what is currently happening at the school • Average of the 2 highest grade progressions of the last 3 years • From 5th to 6th grade, the higher grade progression from the 06>07 school year was used to account for a shift in the attrition rate from historical patterns • High Scenario • Maximum grade progressions from the last three years for each grade - 14 -

  16. Scenarios Considered OUSD SCENARIO 1: Eliminate middle school (This scenario was not proposed by the LRPC. However as a district, we felt that it was very important to consider this alternative given that it was recommended by a number of pre-Kindergarten Hillcrest families) • Advantages: • Allows a greater number of Kindergartens in incoming classes • Challenges: • Strong likelihood based on survey results that there will be at least 60 Kindergarten families within the current Hillcrest boundary • Hillcrest facilities cannot sustain future incoming classes of 60 Kindergarteners Medium Scenario with GP’s as discussed on Slide #5 High Scenario with Maximum GP’s of the last 3 years - 15 - 345 projected students is significantly greater than Hillcrest’s facility capacity

  17. Scenarios Considered OUSD SCENARIO 2: Cap at 40 Kindergarteners with no change to middle school • Advantages: • Programmatically, the scenario would preserve the community’s commitment to preserving a K-8 option for families • Challenges: • Based on even a relatively conservative prediction of future grade progressions, this solution does not fully solve the challenges of overcrowding • With the uncertainty of future grade progressions, it’s very possible that this solution would not at all solve the situation Medium Scenario with GP’s as discussed on Slide #5 High Scenario with Maximum GP’s of the last 3 years - 16 - 355 projected students is significantly greater than Hillcrest’s facility capacity

  18. Scenarios Considered • OUSD SCENARIO 3: • Reduce cohort of neighborhood students by shrinking boundary • Cap Kindergarten at 40 • Annually review attrition rates and cap Middle School at 20 if current grade progressions continue* • Challenges: • Enrollment will still be over the facilities capacity of 310 for the next three years • Advantages: • As requested by the LRPC, model utilizes a more realistic attrition rate for projecting student population. • Reduces some overcrowding while preserving the community’s commitment to a K-8 option Medium Scenario with GP’s as discussed on Slide #5 High Scenario with Maximum GP’s of the last 3 years - 17 - * Beginning in 2009, all 5th grade Hillcrest students must fill out an Options form. Middle school seats will be drawn through a lottery process

  19. Recommendation • Shrink attendance boundary to reduce number of students living in boundary • Approximately 5-15 kindergarteners will be redistricted to Chabot * • Approximately 5-15 kindergarteners will be redistricted to Montclair * • **NOTE: These numbers are only estimates. Until OUSD has access to ALL specific resident information about incoming students gathered by the LRPC, we cannot make any assurances that these adjustments will fully reduce over demand for the 2008 kindergarten seats ** • Cap Kindergarten at 40 students beginning in 2008 • This does NOT necessarily mean 2 classes of 20 K • Annually review attrition rates and cap Middle School at 20 if current grade progressions continue* • Adhere to published OUSD enrollment priorities and administrative regulations - 18 - * These figures may range according to new data presented

  20. OUSD Enrollment Priorities • Enrollment Priorities • Neighborhood students • Sibling • Non-neighborhood • Program Improvement neighborhood • Open Lottery • Enrollment Dates • December 7th, 8th: Options Fair • 1/15/08: Options forms due • 3/1/08: Placement letters mailed • 3/2/08-Ongoing: Appeals window - 19 -

  21. OUSD Enrollment Priorities OR - 20 -

  22. OUSD Enrollment Priorities • Current Hillcrest Student Population ** Students are GUARANTEED their space at Hillcrest. They do not participate in the options process ** • Students living in the “New Hillcrest Boundary” with a sibling already attending Hillcrest • For the 2008-2009 school year only, “grandfathered” students who live in the previously defined Hillcrest boundary with a sibling already attending Hillcrest • Students living in the “New Hillcrest Boundary” without a sibling attending Hillcrest • Students who do not live in the Hillcrest boundary with a sibling already attending Hillcrest • Students who do not live in the Hillcrest boundary without a sibling already attending Hillcrest

  23. Questions Asked by the LRPC • What is the current OUSD policy concerning what happens to current Hillcrest students whose addresses are reallocated to alternative attendance areas? • These students can continue at Hillcrest. If these students wish to select a new school, they will receive first priority at their new neighborhood school • Is there a current OUSD policy concerning what happens to the siblings of existing Hillcrest students? • Pursuant to AR (Administrative Regulation) 5116, when boundaries are changed, the Superintendent or designee will make every effort to keep siblings together, therefore “grandfathering” the neighborhood sibling priority based on space availability • If younger siblings of existing Hillcrest students are grandfathered into the school despite their home addresses falling into a new alternative attendance area, does current or proposed policy dictate that they be given the same (or less) priority that new prospective Hillcrest students residing in the attendance area (who do not have siblings already at the school) when it comes to allocating kindergarten slots? • Pursuant to AR 5116, during the 2008-2009 school year, students who reside in the re-districted portion with a sibling already attending Hillcrest will have priority over students who live in the Hillcrest neighborhood without siblings. • Pursuant to AR 5116, after 2008-2009, students living in the Hillcrest neighborhood without siblings will be prioritized before students who reside in the re-districted portion with a sibling already attending Hillcrest. - 22 -

  24. Questions Asked by the LRPC • How will the middle school lottery occur for 2009? • If the natural attrition rate is less than the number of middle school seats available, a lottery process will take place at the district according to the 2009 Board Options policies. Options policies will be reviewed annually and could be altered as a result of the review • What happens if there is an extra seat in 7th grade as a result of 6th grade students not moving forward? • Because of ongoing challenges with overcrowding, this space will not be refilled. • How will this information be communicated to Real Estate Agents? • The options policy will be distributed and made available to the Oakland Realtor’s Association and broadcast in the Real Estate Association’s newsletter • A meeting will be set up after the Options policies are distributed

  25. Hillcrest: Impact on Neighboring Schools - 24 -

  26. Chabot: Number of Residents • In order to determine whether the number of neighborhood students are increasing, we examine the number of district residents • A resident is defined as an OUSD student whose address falls within the Chabot boundary, regardless of where they attend school • For example, if a student lives in the Chabot neighborhood but attends school at Peralta, they are counted as a Chabot resident • The number of residents in the Chabot neighborhood increased most significantly between 2005 and 2006 • Though the number of residents increased slightly in the Chabot neighborhood, enrollment at the school decreased slightly 2006 Enrollment: 490 2007 Enrollment: 485

  27. Chabot: Neighborhood/Non-Neighborhood Students • Chabot School has always had an excess number of seats available to non-neighborhood students • 55% of students at Chabot come from outside the neighborhood

  28. Chabot: Possible impact on incoming Kindergarten class • In 2007, 36% of the Kindergarten class came from outside the neighborhood • With approximately 13 new Hillcrest K students, 16% of the seats will be available for non-neighborhood students - 27 -

  29. Chabot 2007-2008: Where Students Live and Go to School 94% of students who live in the neighborhood attend school in the neighborhood Number of non SDC students attending Chabot: 485 Students from other neighborhoods: 268 Students Neighborhood students attending School: 217 Students Neighborhood going outside for school: 14 Students Number of OUSD elementary school students living in the Chabot Neighborhood: 231

  30. Chabot: Projected Enrollment • Chabot’s facilities are currently being used at capacity. • Chabot is projected to be able to accommodate the increased number of residents, with fewer available seats for non-neighborhood students. • In 2007, 45% of Chabot’s students come from within the neighborhood. Over the next five years, enrollment is projected to shift to a mix of 67% neighborhood, because of: • Higher grade progressions for neighborhood students • Smaller incoming non-neighborhood K class and fewer non-neighborhood students progressing through the grades

  31. Montclair: Number of Residents • In order to determine whether the number of neighborhood students are increasing, we examine the number of district residents • A resident is defined as an OUSD student whose address falls within the Montclair boundary, regardless of where they attend school • For example, if a student lives in the Montclair neighborhood but attends school at Joaquin Miller, they are counted as a Montclair resident • The number of residents in the Montclair neighborhood have increased in the last two years • In 2007, the number of Montclair residents increased, but the enrollment at the school remained relatively constant, leaving fewer seats for non-neighborhood students Montclair K-5 Residents 2006 Enrollment: 345 2007 Enrollment: 350

  32. Montclair: Neighborhood/Non-Neighborhood Students • In the last few years, Montclair School has had an excess number of seats available to non-neighborhood students • In 2007, the number of non-neighborhood students increased, leaving fewer seats for non-neighborhood students

  33. Montclair 2007-2008: Where Students Live and Go to School 85% of students who live in the neighborhood attend school in the neighborhood Number of non SDC students attending Montclair: 350 Students from other neighborhoods: 121 Students Neighborhood students attending School: 229 Students Neighborhood going outside for school: 39 Students Number of OUSD elementary school students living in the Montclair Neighborhood: 268

  34. Montclair: Number of Residents vs. Facilities Capacity • Montclair’s facility can hold approximately 350 students • Based on the current Montclair attendance boundary, even if every neighborhood student chose to attend the school, there would be approximately 50 additional seats available for non-neighborhood students • Currently, only 85% of neighborhood families are choosing to attend the school. This suggests that there would be more than these 50 seats available for non-neighborhood students

  35. Montclair: Possible impact on incoming Kindergarten class • In 2007, approximately 18% of the Kindergarten class came from outside the neighborhood • With approximately 7 new Hillcrest K students, 10% of the seats will be available for non-neighborhood students * * The school could take 60 kindergartners next year, an increase of three students over this year’s current class - 34 -

  36. Montclair: Projected Enrollment • Montclair’s facilities are currently being used at capacity. • Montclair is projected to be able to accommodate the increased number of residents, with fewer available seats for non-neighborhood students. • In 2007, 65% of Montclair’s students come from outside the neighborhood. Over the next five years, enrollment is projected to shift to a mix of 87% neighborhood, 13% non-neighborhood because of: • Higher grade progressions for neighborhood students • Smaller incoming non-neighborhood K class and fewer non-neighborhood students progressing through the grades

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