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Evolution and Resilience of the Nuclear Nonproliferation System

Evolution and Resilience of the Nuclear Nonproliferation System. Arian L. Pregenzer November 3, 2013. The goal of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) is to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. The nuclear nonproliferation system includes a range of multilateral and bilateral measures.

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Evolution and Resilience of the Nuclear Nonproliferation System

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  1. Evolution and Resilience of the Nuclear Nonproliferation System Arian L. Pregenzer November 3, 2013

  2. The goal of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) is to limit the spread of nuclear weapons.

  3. The nuclear nonproliferation system includes a range of multilateral and bilateral measures • Security Alliances • Diplomacy • Arms Control • Sanctions • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards Capacity building Technical assistance NPT • Material and weapon security Detection and interdiction Limitations on highly enriched uranium and plutonium • Border and port security Export Control (sensitive nuclear technology)

  4. Nonproliferation system has been largely successful. But what will happen next? ?

  5. Thresholds in the nonproliferation system? Region to Avoid Demand 1945 2030? Capability

  6. Evolution of Nonproliferation Strategies1945 - 1990 Indian NW Test Soviet NW Tests Hiroshima/Nagasaki

  7. Evolution of Nonproliferation Strategies1991 - 2001 End of USSR Indian NW Test Soviet NW Tests Hiroshima/Nagasaki

  8. Innovative Strategies of the 1990sCooperative Threat Reduction Protection of Nuclear Material and Facilities Dismantlement of Russian Submarine Warhead Safety and Security Disassembly of Missile Launch Tube

  9. Innovative Strategies of the 1990sThe Cooperative Monitoring Center India / Pakistan Naval Confidence Building Measures Cooperative Border Crossings Cooperative Aerial Monitoring Nuclear Safety Data Exchange (Northeast Asia) MeteorologicalData Gathering and Exchange (Israel/PA) Cooperative Disease Surveillance (Middle East)

  10. Evolution of Nonproliferation StrategiesPost 2001 End of USSR Indian NW Test September 11 Soviet NW Tests Hiroshima/Nagasaki

  11. Innovative Strategies of the 2000sThe Proliferation Security Initiative: • Goals • Stop trafficking WMD-related materials and technologies • Framework • No formal secretariat • Coalition of “willing” • Methods • Exchange of information and best practices • Exercises • Participation • 10 states (2003) • > 100 states (2013) 41-country exercise off Japan in 2007

  12. Can concepts of systems resilience be applied to the nonproliferation system? • Resilience is a measure of a system’s ability to absorb continuous and unpredictable change and maintain its vital functions • Strategies for resilience will emphasize general capabilities to deal with unknown hazards • Resilient systems constantly evolve to maintain function in a changing environment • Resilient systems are functionally diverse

  13. The Adaptive Cycle and Systems Resilience • conservation • reorganization • growth • release • reorganization • growth A resilient system continues to perform its vital functions as it moves through the adaptive cycle over time.

  14. Where is the nonproliferation system?

  15. What can be done to enhance resilience of the nonproliferation system? • Acknowledge that not all determined states can be prevented from developing nuclear weapons • Fewer intellectual and economic resources to “prevention” • Emphasize general international capabilities that increase overall security and can respond to “point failures” • Nuclear emergency / incident response • Missile defense • Standards for nuclear weapons security • Apply systems thinking more rigorously to nonproliferation • Clarify processes • Understand feedbacks

  16. Systems Analysis: Understanding FeedbacksModeling the Nonproliferation System • Benefits • Clarify thinking about system processes • Account for feedbacks and unintended consequences • Cautions • Unknown interactions • Difficult to quantify See “A Systems Approach to Assessing Nonproliferation Strategies,” A. Pregenzer, S. DeLand, R. Glass, W. Beyeler, A. Ames, A. Williams; http://www.sandia.gov/CasosEngineering/docs/Nonproliferation%20Model%20INMM%205-30-11_SAND2011_3768C.pdf

  17. Final Thought: Nonproliferation system interacts with other systems at larger and smaller scales. Global Order / International Security Nonproliferation System Year Time Century State NW Programs Country Space Globe

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