DEVELOPING SCHOOL DISTRICT ENROLMENT PROJECTIONS

1. 2009 Professional Development Workshop on School Facilities Management DEVELOPING SCHOOL DISTRICT ENROLMENT PROJECTIONS March 26, 2009 Prepared By: Judy Shoemaker, Planning Manager School District No. 23

2. WHY IT IS IMPORTANT? • Almost everything in a School District’s World is enrolment driven… • How many pencils to buy • How many teachers to hire • How many buses to run • How many schools to operate • How much space to maintain • Determines operational budgets • Determines capital approvals

3. ENROLMENT PROJECTIONKEY FACTORS • Student Demographics • Community Demographics • Educational Considerations

4. STUDENT DEMOGRAPHICS • Birth Rates • Student Retention Rates (Cohort Survival Rate) • In-Migration & Out-Migration • Out of Catchment Enrolment • New Registrations & Transfers • Loss/Gain during school Year

5. BIRTHS Annual births available through local health authority Develop a history of births for your district The kids born this year will be entering your schools in 5 years

6. BIRTHS Example of birth data impact in the Central Okanagan • 1995: High point - 1,570 • 2002: Low point - 1,297 • 2007: Unprecedented jump to 1,622 children born! 210 higher than 2006 13% increase from 2006 # of births to mothers resident within School District No.23

7. Is the increase in births a 1 year anomaly?(Did the power go out?) Female Age Distribution: Significantly more women of child bearing age from 2001 to 2006 Age 20-24 +866 +20% Age 24-29 +286 +8% Age 30-34 -214 -2%

8. Where do these women live? Schools with the greatest increase in women age 20-34: • Anne McClymont +201 • Rosevalley +172 • Shannon Lake +136 • Watson Road +106 • Dorthea Walker +94 • Black Mountain +88 The only school with a large decrease in women of child bearing age: • Bankhead -92

9. BIRTH RATE IMPACT • 2009: Less than 50 students increase in 2009. • By 2011: Enrolments will remain stable until 2011 and then begins to increase. • By 2018: enrolment will be higher than 2008 levels by approximately 2000 students. • By 2018: K up 400, Elementary up 2,000, Middle flat, Secondary down 400. • Secondary will decline as lower birth rates 1995 to 2003 pass through the system.

10. CHANGE FROM 3 YEARS AGO WOMEN OF CHILD BEARING AGE

11. STUDENT RETENTION RATES Also known as grade to grade ‘Cohort Survival Ratio’ • The cohort begins with a group of students starting in K and moving to Grade 1 the next year, Grade 2 the following year and so on. • The “survival ratio” is developed to see how this group of students grows or shrinks over time. • Enrolment patterns emerge that can be folded into projections by using the survival ratios as a multiplier. 100 students in one grade…. ….same cohort group has 102 students in next year =102% retention rate

12. STUDENT RETENTION RATES

13. STUDENT RETENTION RATES • A ‘weighted’ 3 year average generally provides reliable, predictable projections • 104% 3 Year Average = (104+108+110)/3 =107% • 108% • 3 Year Weighted Average • 110% ((104x1)+(108x2)+(110x3)/6 =108%

14. MIGRATION • How many new students are moving into a school area and how many are moving out -shows up in the schools retention rates. • BCeSIS provides Withdrawal and Admissions Reports –Can break down how many are coming in from other district schools, from independent schools, from out of district, out of province and out of country • Example of use –Pattern of Independent School In-Migration at Grade 8. Increase retention rate accordingly for projections of students entering grade 8.

15. MIGRATION TRENDS Significant increase in family mobility. In the Central Okanagan in 2008; • 1658 Admissions (not including K’s or transitioning grades) and 1178 Withdrawals • 570 Admissions/withdrawals due to movement between SD23 schools • 200 Admissions and 103 Withdrawals to/from Independent Schools • Balance Out of District/Province/Country

16. OUT OF CATCHMENT ENROLMENT • Managing boundaries very difficult since School Act changed to allow parents & students their choice to attend any school they want …as long as space permits. • Review where kids in catchment area attend • Review where kids attending school come from

17. OUT OF CATCHMENT ENROLMENT Bankhead Elementary Where kids come from

18. OUT OF CATCHMENT ENROLMENT Bankhead Elementary Where kids go to

19. NEW REGISTRATIONS & TRANSFERS • Schools enter all new registrations and transfer requests into a “Wait List” database • Each schools Wait List indicates if student is new to the district or a transfer from another school within the district. • For final staffing projections, school projections are adjusted to reflect new registrations & transfers in or out.

20. LOSS/GAIN DURING SCHOOL YEAR • Compare schools Sept 30th enrolment to February month end enrolment. Note loss or gain of students during school year. • Compare to previous years. If greater loss than previous –retention rates likely to high. If much greater gain of students than previous years, retention rate likely too low.

21. KEY FACTORS COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHICS • Knowledge of the area • Proposed Development –Municipal Referrals • Official Community Plans • Type of Housing & Housing Costs • Building Permits/Housing Starts • Geographic Barriers • Neighbourhood Attributes • Community Economic Indicators • Student Yields by Area

22. KNOWLEDGE OF THE AREA • Proposed Development • Get on the municipal referrals list for Rezoning, Subdivision and Development Permit applications • Establish liaison meetings with city planners to learn about upcoming developments • Official Community Plans • Will generally indicate the future potential housing areas, number of housing units & style of units supported in any given area.

23. CITY OF KELOWNA OCP EXAMPLE Potential New Residential Units 20 Year Horizon

24. KNOWLEDGE OF THE AREA • Building Permits/Housing Starts • Land saturation analysis Remaining potential for development • Change in household composition. Neighbourhood ‘cycles’ –difficult to predict. • Neighbourhood attributes –new recreation centre? • Community Economic Indicators • Geographic barriers • Transportation barriers

25. STUDENT YIELD RATES • Analyze new housing data by school catchment area. • Student yield factors can be established by comparing the number of students each year by the total number of building or occupancy permits issued. • Example: Student enrolment increased by 100 students at Central school. 200 single family building permits issued = estimated yield rate of .5 students per new household. • Once yield factors are established –the number of new students per year can be projected by multiplying the yield rate by the number of projected new housing units. • Style and value of homes may vary yield rates I.e. Yield rates for single family homes is generally twice that of multi-family homes in the Central Okanagan. Also the higher value the house, the lower the yield rate.

28. KEY FACTORS EDUCATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS • Schools of Choice (Magnet Programs) • Specialty Space Offerings • In-school Community Programs • Private Schools • Identification of At Risk Students: Early Development Indicator

29. SCHOOLS OF CHOICE • French Immersion –Single/Dual Track impacts • Traditional Schools • Trades & Dual Credit Programs • Culinary Arts Programs • Sports Academies • Fine Arts Specialties • Baccalaureate or other Enrichment Programs • International Student Program

30. IN-SCHOOL COMMUNITY PROGRAMS • Strong Start • Preschools • Daycares • After School Programs • Community School Programs • Recreation Programs

31. PRIVATE SCHOOLS • What percentage of your total population attends independent schools? • It is increasing or decreasing? • What are the trends for the future? • Is there a new game in town?

32. Early Development Instrumenthttp://www.earlylearning.ubc.ca/EDI/maps_local.html • A Population-based measure of early child development for communities • Research indicates the Early years are the most important developmental phase throughout life • Assessing Children’s readiness to learn • Physical health & well being • Social competence • Emotional maturity • Language & cognitive development • Communication and general knowledge

33. Early Development Instrument • Helps to show where there are large neighbourhood differences and vulnerability in the number of children healthy and ready for school • BC 1st jurisdiction in the world to have a standardized tool for assessing ECD at a population level. By 2004, every K class in BC participated the EDI • Can be a powerful catalyst for influencing policy and programming decisions by providing population level data about the K children in a neighbourhood. • Purpose is to provide population based data about early childhood development to communities and government so they can put programs in to place to support healthy child development in all families -in the right areas. • No data, no problem, no action Alfredo Solari

35. Summary Table: Average Scores

36. Cross Checks • Resulting projections can be compared against Baragar projections (an independent company) which uses a student percentage of total population projection methodology. • Compared against Ministry of Education projections. • Have each school principal review for reasonableness. • Lean to the cautionary side. Budgets are based on projections. Caution protects the School District.

37. DESIREABLE OUTCOMES • At the end of the day you want to know… • What are the trends in your district? • Increasing, stable or declining enrolment; by school area and by the district as a whole. • And have good, credible enrolment data to; • Determine capacity utilization factors • Identify future growth by area • Develop a business case for new space, renovations, consolidation or reconfiguration of schools • Reduce portable classrooms

38. Questions?