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WELCOME TO NMC/CMA

WELCOME TO NMC/CMA. Who We Are. National Meteorological Centre, CMA’s national centre for weather operations and relevant research Founded in 1950 Total number of employees: 251. Organization of New NMC. Administration Office. Administration Office. Division of O, R & D.

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WELCOME TO NMC/CMA

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  1. WELCOME TONMC/CMA

  2. Who We Are • National Meteorological Centre, CMA’s national centre for weather operations and relevant research • Founded in 1950 • Total number of employees: 251

  3. Organization of New NMC Administration Office Administration Office Division of O, R & D Division of Operation Personal Division Administrative Administrative Sector (29 staffs) Planning&Financial Affairs 国家气象中心 NMC Departments Integrative Office 国 Weather Office 家 Division of NWP 气 Basic Basic Operation Sector (116 staffs) Remote Sensing Application 象 Operations 中 Agricultural & Ecological Met. 心 Forecast System Laboratory ( NMC) Met. Service for Decision-making Commercial Commercial Specialized Meteorological Service Services (106 staffs) Services Logistic Service

  4. 科研、业务人员学历分布情况 Education level of staffs in basic operation sector 博士19人 硕士49人 大学27人 其他 21人 Ph.D 19Master49 Bachelor 27 Others21

  5. 科研、业务人员年龄结构 Structure of staff's age in basic operation sector

  6. Main Responsibilities • Meteorological service to central government • Meteorological service to public and external user community • Special meteorological service to specific users (commercial service) • Technical instruction to local weather offices • Relevant international duties on meteorology (e.g. as a Regional Specialized Meteorological Center and an Environmental Emergence Response Center of WMO )

  7. Weather forecasts to day 5 • Severe weather (Typhoon, Torrential rain, Dust storm, Strong winds, and Hot wave etc.) watches, forecasts and warnings • City air quality predictions • Forecasts of forest fire potential • Forecasts of geolo. disaster (landslip) potential What We Do • Public weather forecasts (include environmental meteo.) • Decision-making support • Guidance to support local meteorological offices • Severe weather watches, forecasts & outlooks • Analyses of impacts of severe weather and climate events on public and economics • Information on meteorological disasters and disasters derived from meteorology • Watches on forest fire, flood, growing of crops • Analyses on meteo. condition for agri. and crops yield forecasts • Emergence response to harmful polluting events • Medium-range weather forecasts to day 7 • Short-range weather forecasts to day 3 • Severe weather (Typhoon, Torrential rain, Dust storm, Strong winds, and Hot wave etc.) watches , forecasts and warnings • Forecasts of convective phenomena location • Potential forecasts of geological disaster to day 2 • UV index forecasts to day 2 • Crops yield forecasts

  8. Global model (T213L31) • Regional/ Meso-scale models (HLAFS025/27km) • OI/3DVAR data assimilation • EPS (T106L19-32mumbers) • Typhoon track model • Dust storm model • Nuclear pollution transport & dispersion model • Air quality model What We Do • NWP operational model development and operations • Remote-sensing application • Agricultural & ecological meteorology • Products for severe weather watches (e.g. convective system, dust storm, typhoon, fronts) • Products of atmospheric conditions and cloud properties (e.g. TBB, cloud water, cloud ice) • Products of surface properties (albedo, SST, land use, terrain) • Products for ecological & environmental watches (e.g. soil moisture, forest fire, NDVI, ice/snow cover, water coverage of lakes/rivers) • Agricultural meteo. data processing • Watcheson crops growing, soil condition, and meteo. environmental condition for agri. • Assessment on agricultural meteo. disasters • Crops yield forecasts (wheat, paddy, corn, cotton etc.) • Watcheson ecological environment • Agricultural meteo. products to public

  9. Products Classified by time ●Weather and environmental monitoring (0 hour) ●Nowcasting for severe weather (0-3 hour) and very short range forecast（0-12 hour） ●Short-range forecast (1-3 days） ●Medium-range forecast (4-10 days） ●Agriculture meteorological information (10 days) ●Extended forecast for important synoptic event（11-30 days） ●Annual crops yield forecasts

  10. Products Classified by varieties ●Disastrous weather warning（Typhoon, Torrential rain, Dust storm, Gale, cold wave, severe convection and etc.) ●Weather forecast (cities and towns in China, world main cities) ●Tropical cyclone and oceanic meteorological forecast ●Crops growing and yield forecast ●Weather, climate and environmental monitoring (including flood, fire, snow, dust storm, ecological environment, land use, typhoon, plant cover, SST, OLR, TBB and etc.) ●Air quality forecast ●Diffusion forecast of nuclear pollution ●Environmental index forecast ●Specialized meteorological services

  11. Observation (8 July–8 September) Forecast of the 24 Hour Precipitation (8 July 2003)

  12. Contrast of best track and forecast of typhoon Sinlaku Best track Forecast track 5 days earlier,we forecast the typhoon Sinlaku would landfall on the joint part of Zhejiang and Fujian province,so that 640000 people were evacuated.

  13. Mean distance errors of tropical cyclone predictions (km)

  14. 72 Hour High Temperature Forecast and Observation 2 Aug., 2003

  15. Typhoon Monitoring by Doppler Radar

  16. Typhoon Monitoring by Satellite

  17. Started on 19 March, 2002, severe dust storm occurred in NW, north and NE of China. The source of this process was from middle and west part of Mongolia and middle and west part of Inner Mongolia. Dust Storm Route

  18. Dust Storm Route 3/20/2002 （08）

  19. Dust Storm Route 2002.3.18—3.21 蒙古高原 科尔沁沙地 浑善达克沙地 哈顺戈壁 塔克拉玛干沙漠 中央戈壁 库姆塔格沙漠 巴丹吉林沙漠 库布齐沙漠 乌兰布和沙漠 毛乌素沙地 滕格里沙漠

  20. —— dust 杨沙 —— dust storm沙尘暴 —— severe dust storm 强沙尘暴 0800h 20 March Dust Storm Observation and Numerical Forecast Observation Numerical Forecast

  21. Our future is build upon • Improving watches and forecasts of extreme events • Seamless weather forecast products • Extension of meteo. forecast field through acollaborative approach with other agencies • Improving NWP model performance by improving data assimilation and model physics • Addressing uncertainty in forecasts ——ensemble modeling/forecasts

  22. 数值预报室机构设置 Organizational Structure of NWP Division 国家气象中心 中央气象台 NMC NMO 数值预报室(39) NWP Division 天气预报室(52) Weather Office 环境气象预报室 Enviro - Meteo Forecast office 科 7-Branches 模式2科(6) (边界层/陆面/扩散模式) Modeling 2 模式1科(6) (模式框架/云/降水/辐射) Modeling 1 系统集成与技术支持科 (4) Technical Supporting 业务运行科 (5) NWP operation 模式3科 (4) (台风与集合预报) Typhoon & EPS 资料同化科 (6) Data assimilation 模式检验与评价科 (4) erification on NWP products 行政与业务秘书 (2) Secretary

  23. NWP operational systems • “T213L31” Global medium-range NWP system (60km) • “HLAFS” Limited area short-range NWP system (27km) • Typhoon track NWP system (60km) • Meso-scale NWP system (based on MM5, 27km/9km) • Medium-range Ensemble Prediction System (32 members T106L19) (new generation of EPS is underdevelopment) • Air quality model system (coupled with meso-scale model) • Nuclear pollution transport and dispersion model system (coupled with T213L31 model) • UVI prediction system (coupled with T213L31 model) • Dust-storm model system (nested with T213L31 model)

  24. OPERATIONAL NWP IN NMC RMSE OF 500HPA HEIGHT OVER NORTH HEMISPHERE

  25. JMA ECMWF 与国外模式的比较(2003.8) 北半球500hPa高度距平相关系数 差距依然明显（可用时效比EC短1.5天、比日本短0.5-1天） CMA

  26. > 0.1mm > 10.0mm > 25.0mm > 50.0mm > 100.0mm

  27. Relevant Work undergoing • Global model and data assimilation • Model vertical resolution • Data assimilation scheme & use of ATOVS • Meso-scale models • CHALFS—modified based on WRF • GRAPES---developed by domestic scientists • EPS development

  28. Vertical level distribution L60 L31

  29. 3DVAR Parallel testing OI

  30. 24小时累计降水 Impact of ATOVS data on precipitation forecast

  31. 数据预处理 SI • 3DVAR • WRF • 结果后处理Post processing • 模式结果检验 Verification Flow chart of WRF experimental system

  32. 系统的运行 WRF-3DVAR系统的时间流程安排

  33. 2003年7月4日24小时降水预报与实况 OBS Simulation Huai River flooding case

  34. 2003年6月22日24小时降水预报图 20km水平分辨率 5km水平 分辨率 OBS

  35. 实况 OBS 原方案 国产方案 Original one Own scheme

  36. GRAPES---domestic made • A 60km regional version of GRAPES has been put in real time testing since May 2004 • Preliminary results show that its performance and results are basically reasonable

  37. 谢谢！ Thanks!

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