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Joint Action Group for Operational Community Modeling (JAG/OCM) update Fall COPC 2010

Joint Action Group for Operational Community Modeling (JAG/OCM) update Fall COPC 2010. Mr. Evan Kuchera JAG/OCM Chair. Overview. JAG/OCM membership Status of Initiatives

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Joint Action Group for Operational Community Modeling (JAG/OCM) update Fall COPC 2010

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  1. Joint Action Group for Operational Community Modeling (JAG/OCM) updateFall COPC 2010 Mr. Evan Kuchera JAG/OCM Chair

  2. Overview • JAG/OCM membership • Status of Initiatives • COPC AI 2010 1-4: Develop and submit to COPC for approval a Unified Multi-Model Ensemble Operations annex to the DAPE MOA to address NAEFS and/or NUOPC operations management, alignment of performance requirements, change management, and data dissemination. • COPC AI 2009 2-9: JAG/OCM shall investigate and propose a Southwest Asia (SWA) alignment area as a possible attachment to the Alignment of OCONUS Coarse Mesoscale Windows at AFWA and FNMOC document. • COPC AI 2009 2-10: JAG/OCM shall propose a delineation of algorithm development responsibilities among the OPC’s for variables of shared interest, and a plan for how these algorithms could be incorporated into operations. • Recommendations

  3. JAG/OCM Membership • AFWA—Evan Kuchera (Chair) • NOAA/NCEP—Bill Lapenta • FNMOC—Roger Stocker • NAVO—Frank Bub • NRL/MRY– Pat Phoebus • CNMOC—Steve Payne • OFCM—Ken Barnett

  4. COPC AI 2009 2-9Background • COPC AI 2009 2-9: JAG/OCM shall investigate and propose a Southwest Asia (SWA) alignment area as a possible attachment to the Alignment of OCONUS Coarse Mesoscale Windows at AFWA and FNMOC document. • IEMCO signed in early 2008—three year plan to align mesoscale model domains for AF/Navy • First for backup, then for ensembles • JAG/OCM developed plan to combine model domains into 4 large areas worldwide: • Effort never took hold for a number of reasons

  5. COPC AI 2009 2-9SWA alignment • Summary: Effort has evolved into trying to make T574 GFS (~27 km) the backup for DoD mesoscale (15-18 km) modeling • Discussed with JAG/CCM (Lou Cano) feasibility of using NOMADS servers on COPC network • Requires NOAA coordination between WOC and TOC for routing and firewall changes • No anticipated technical difficulties • Next steps • NOAA configures NOMADS server for COPC network • Test and implement (all centers)

  6. COPC AI 2009 2-10Algorithm Sharing/Implementation • COPC AI 2009 2-10: JAG/OCM shall propose a delineation of algorithm development responsibilities among the OPC’s for variables of shared interest, and a plan for how these algorithms could be incorporated into operations. • Meeting in June in Boulder on common software for diagnosed variables • NCEP will lead software development • NCAR will serve as liaison for community • AFWA will serve as major contributor with algorithms for: • Lightning, hail, tornado, wind gusts • Icing, turbulence, visibility, ceiling, low-level wind shear • Precipitation type, snowfall, many others

  7. COPC AI 2009 2-10Algorithm Sharing/Implementation • Several variables will have stochastic algorithms or multiple algorithms • Well suited to ensembles/probabilistic prediction • Next steps • Developers committee (NCAR led) setting standards, change management processes • First community release set for summer 2011 • Test and implement (AFWA and NCEP only) • Entrain wider community, get more developers working on same software (faster R2O)

  8. JAG Recommendations • Alignment of SWA domains (COPC AI 2009 2-9) • Decision request: Amend/Rescind IEMCO • Continue working to leverage 27 km GFS via NOMADS for backup purposes • Algorithms/Post-Processing (COPC AI 2009 2-10) • Work towards summer 2011 NCEP/NCAR release with AFWA contributed algorithms • Ways to entrain Navy interests into process?

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