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Climate of Pragmatism Embracing Technology to Save the Planet. Who We Are 1. Life-long environmentalists, 2008 Time Magazine “Heroes of the Environment” 2. Green critics of cap and trade and Kyoto in “The Death of Environmentalism” (2004)
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Climate of Pragmatism Embracing Technology to Save the Planet
Who We Are 1. Life-long environmentalists, 2008 Time Magazine “Heroes of the Environment” 2. Green critics of cap and trade and Kyoto in “The Death of Environmentalism” (2004) 3. “Break Through could be the most important thing to happen to environmentalism since Silent Spring.” — Wired Magazine. 4. Breakthrough Institute is 10 person research and analysis staff focused on energy and climate funded by four philanthropic foundations. 5. Focus on “making clean energy cheap” to displace fossil. 6. Reports in the U.S. on Asia clean tech, innovation, manufacturing. “Prescient.” — Time
20 Years of Failure on Global Warming Kyoto nations themselves saw energy and emissions rise. Cap and trade failed — for the fourth time, despite support from utility industry. Kyoto treaty process is dead — there will be no United Nations treaty to mandate emissions reductions. Greens/UN exaggerated readiness of renewables and efficiency, opposed nuclear. Strong political opposition to raising energy prices at all, much less the difference between fossil energy and clean energy. UN Conference in Copenhagen, 2009
Number of green jobs President Obama promised to create: 3 million Number of green energy efficiency jobs that environmentalists* said would be created through the stimulus/cap and trade: 900,000 Number of efficiency jobs created by stimulus: 13,000 Percentage of buildings in the U.S. they said would be retrofitted in 10 years: 100 Effect cap and trade would have had on employment, according to Obama Administration government sources (EPA and CBO): Negative to highly negative Number of jobs lost since 2008: 8 million *Center for American Progress and Green for All
U.S. Falling Behind While U.S. congratulated itself for tiny number of installation jobs, manufacturing moved to Asia and Europe. China, Japan, Korea will spend $50 billion per year. U.S. spending $4 bi on R&D. Creating manufacturing base requires sustained public investments. U.S. firms including Applied Materials, GE moving R&D facilities to China.
“[A]ll life seemed to live in harmony with its surroundings. —Rachel Carson Silent Spring, 1962
Not enough room for all of us? “People thrusting their hands through the taxi window, begging. People defecating and urinating. People clinging to buses. People herding animals. People, people, people, people… Would we ever get to our hotel? All three of us were, frankly frightened… …India couldn't possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980," Paul Ehrlich, Population Bomb, 1968.
“It was almost like a nature hike through the Book of Revelation.” “The truth about the climate crisis is an inconvenient one that means we are going to have to change the way we live our lives.” — Al Gore, “Inconvenient Truth,” 2006 New Orleans, 2005
This narrative is identical to the narrative of a depressed person.
Aaron Beck, psychologist, left, founder of “cognitive therapy.” Beck found that depressed people share three core beliefs: My world is bleak I’m no good. My future is hopeless. Cognitive therapy teaches people to talk back to these depressing over-generalizations and re-narrate their lives.
Technology is Sacred "An ape's fingers are long and good for hanging from branches, while the human hand (right) has a long, strong thumb that makes the hand more versatile" (Joyce 2010). Credit: Maggie Starbard/NPR
Norman Borlaug, father of green revolution Agronomist and advocate. Nemesis to population bombers (e.g. Ehrlich). Saved hundreds of millions of lives. Nobel Prize, 1970 But was not one man alone – governments, NGOs, agribusinesses and philanthropies worked together over decades.
Failure of imagination lies behind view of hard natural limits.
Technology is Game Changing Average U.S. Corn Yields Biotechnology Hybrid genetics & biotechnology have driven a five-fold increase in average U.S. corn yields since 1940. Single-Cross Hybrids Bushels/Acre Open-Pollinated Double Cross Credit: Richard Hamilton, Ceres Data Source: USDA
Cultural turn against modernization, science, and technology starts in the 1960s.
Sierra Club, New Left were in favor of nuclear power in late fifties early sixties. By end of sixties they both rejected nuclear power by end of sixties. Nuclear power seen as part of Cold War. “Our monster cities, based historically on the need for mass labor, might now be humanized, broken into smaller communities, powered by nuclear energy, arranged according to community decision.” — Tom Hayden, “Port Huron Statement,” SDS, 1962
"[If] nuclear power were clean, safe, economic, assured of ample fuel, and socially benign per se, it would still be unattractive because of the political implications of the kind of energy economy it would lock us into." — Amory Lovins, Foreign Affairs, 1976
Anti-nuclear movement succeeded in preventing new nuclear plants in U.S. and Europe by late seventies. Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. Economies became more energy efficient… …but energy consumption grew. Electricity grew 66 percent between 1984 and 2000 Result was coal-building boom in the U.S. and Europe.
Traditional Environmentalism Human hubris is our downfall. Humans violate an external harmonious nature. Must constrain human power, wealth, technology, consumption. Not everybody on earth can live like we live. Ecological Innovation Humans are natural, technology is sacred, and what we do is natural. Ecological problems are unintended consequences of development. We need technology so 9 billion humans can live decent lives while protecting the environment. Hubris is believing we can create a world without unintended consequences.
Rising energy consumption correlated with longer life, better health, less disease, and greater freedom. Number of people living on $2/day declined from 4 billion in 1982 to 2 billion today. More than 500 million Chinese raised out of dire poverty in less than 20 years. Coal is cheapest energy for fastest development.
Achieving 450 ppm of carbon dioxide (the global target) would require one of the following: • Five Cape Winds per day, • Five Mojave Solar Electric Generation System (the largest in the world) per day, • One full sized carbon capture and storage plant per day, or • One million new solar roofs per day. • One large (5 GW) nuclear plant every five days. • It currently takes the U.S. about 10 years to do any of the above. • Clearly, we need technological breakthroughs if we hope to scale clean energy quickly.
The only two countries to rapidly move to clean energy were France and Sweden. They did so largely through the direct deployment of nuclear power.
1973 oil crisis 1979 oil crisis 1970: Launch of nuclear electricity program French government responds to oil shocks with rapid deployment of nuclear plants Decision to specialize in pressurized water reactor Government tightens control on oil imports First nuclear reactor becomes operational
1973 oil crisis 1979 oil crisis Three Mile Island Nuclear meltdown 1965 decision to increase nuclear capacity Legislation ensures proper nuclear waste management Respond to oil crises with rapid nuclear deployment and phase-out of oil Begin encouraging use of biofuel Public disapproval of nuclear prompts phase-out legislation
Historical Trends in U.S. Energy Intensity and Energy Demand Rising Energy Consumption Declining Energy Intensity
Jevons • Economy-wide energy efficiency is good for increasing economy, not for reducing energy consumption • Jevons Paradox: More energy efficiency = more energy consumption • “Rebound Effect” • GDP Growth (Khazzoom-Brookes)
