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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 28th- 29th September 2006 Impact of FTA activities in implementing specific national R&D programmes from a NSI viewpoint: some results from a survey in Europe Monica Cariola National Research Council of Italy

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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

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  1. Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 28th- 29th September 2006 Impact of FTA activities in implementing specific national R&D programmes from a NSI viewpoint: some results from a survey in Europe Monica Cariola National Research Council of Italy CerisCNR Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth

  2. INTRODUCTION This work analyses the main results of one of the basic tasks on FTA activities of the European project “iMERA (implementing the Metrology European Research Area)” started in 2005, a 3-year project funded by the European Commission within the ERA-NET scheme Main purpose of iMERA to enable National Governments to increase the National and European impact of their research investments in Metrology

  3. Within the iMERA Project A specific task is aimed to provide an evaluation of : • the processes of metrology and technology foresight in Europe • their impact on the national programmes for long term planning of metrological activities

  4. Purpose to set the grounds for the post-iMERA institutions, to create a common European Foresight in order to harmonise procedures and results ….even if National Foresights can still survive

  5. FORESIGHT NMIs (National Metrology Institutes ) Government Stakeholders Before iMERA Project National Level EUROMET

  6. Post - iMERA National Level National Level National Level National Level Government Government Government Government NMIs NMIs NMIs NMIs FORESIGHT FORESIGHT FORESIGHT FORESIGHT Stakeholders Stakeholders Stakeholders Stakeholders European Foresight EUROMET

  7. 1° STEP a Surveyonnational foresight processes on Metrology R&D in European Countries

  8. Some data on the survey • Questionnaire sent on July 2005 to all EUROMET members • Responses from 19 countries (58%): 14 partners, 5 non-partners iMERA • Metrology foresight studies/processes in their Country (as declared): • Yes14 (74% of respondents) • No3 (16%) • No, but.. 2 (10%)

  9. Questionnaire structure • Part A:general questions focusing on Metrology Foresight (type a1), but listing also other relevant studies useful for long term planning (type a2) -Answers from all respondent Countries • Part B:specific questions related to metrology foresight (type a1) - (one questionnaire for each study listed in Part A),ranging from 1 to 7 studies per Country • Part C:specific questions related to other foresight studies (type a3) - Answers from 9 countries

  10. Foresight studies/processes carried out or used in each Country (as declared)

  11. Methods used in Foresight (from I.Miles, M.Keenan) Group Method 1.Identifying Issues a. Environmental Scanning b. SWOT Analysis c. Issue Surveys 2.Extrapolative Approaches a. Trend Extrapolation b. Simulation Modelling c. Genius Forecasting d. Delphi 3.Creative Approaches a. Brainstorming b. Expert Panels c. Cross‑Impact Analysis d. Scenarios 4.Prioritisation a. Critical (and Key) Technologies b. Technology Roadmapping

  12. Part A - FTA relevant for metrology Methodologies more used to assess needs arising from: • Industrial/societal Developments 1. Environmental Scanning (88%), mainly through of stakeholders, CIPM studies and Other Foresight studies 2. Expert Panels (56%) New areas 1. Environmental Scanning (73%), mainly through Consultation of stakeholders and other foresight studies from industrial sectors 2. Genius Forecasting (46%) Longer term work on the SI 1. Environmental Scanning (62%), mainly through CIPM studies 2. Genius Forecasting (46%).

  13. Part B: Specific Metrology Foresight studies • NMIs participation in most of cases (80%) • Extent: mainly National (72%) • Time horizon: mainly 3-5 years (52%), 6-10 yrs. (44%) • Scope: mainly General (56%), then by EUROMET TC • Promotion: mainly by Government/Ministry (44%), then National Metrology organisation (40%) • Methodologies: Environmental Scanning (57%) Expert Panels (48%) Brainstorming (44%) Genius Forecasting (35%) • Frequency: periodical/one-off (44% both); 0-3 years ago (72%) • Outcomes: mainly Papers/Reports (85%), workshops (44%)

  14. Methods used in Foresight processes and direct participation of NMIs

  15. Perceived Impact of FTA Outcomes (1) • Use of Foresight Outcomes for planning NMI activity: Not very much (30%) Very much and Sufficiently (both 22%) • Modification of NMI previous plans after Foresight: Not very much (41%) Sufficiently (30 %) • Use of Foresight Outcomes for national Prioritisation Yes, 81% • New scientific co-operations thanks to Foresight: Sufficiently (36 %) Not very much (32%) • Co-operations in new areas thanks to Foresight Not very much (32%) Sufficiently and Much (both 27 %)

  16. Perceived Impact of FTA Outcomes (2) • Foresight helpfulness for development of metrology in general Sufficiently (44 %) Not very much (26%) • Foresight helpfulness for development of specific metrology fields Much (44 %) Sufficiently (26%) • Foresight helpfulness for the policy maker Much (30 %) Sufficiently (26%)

  17. Tentative classification of the reported foresight studies • “True” foresight studies -17 from 11 countries (ranging from 1 to 4 per country) • Activity plans/Forecasts elaborated by NMIs -10 from 6 countries (ranging from 1 to 3 per country) • Market/Customer surveys -3 from 2 countries • Other foresight studies -12 from 8 countries • Specific research projects/feasibility studies -19 from one country • Not classifiable in previous categories -10 from 3 countries

  18. Some conclusions • Large variety of national foresight processes • Many reported studies have the characteristics of Forecasting and Strategic Planning rather than of formal Foresight exercises • The questionnaire itself has had an acknowledged learning effect • Central role of NMI motivated experts, but occasion for NMIs to increase their opening outwards

  19. The Need for a joint European Metrology Foresight is confirmed but has to be improved…. internal knowledge of foresight processes their impact on R&D programmes most effective way to conduct FTA networks between NMIs, Stakeholders and Governments, inside and outside the Countries

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